Big Ten Tournament Predictions, Betting Odds & Favorites: Michigan State Spartans Jump Out to Strong Start

• After racing off to a 5-0 start in conference play, which includes four double-digit wins, the Michigan State Spartans appear to be one of the top frontrunners for the Big Ten Tournament.

• The Illinois Fighting Illini, Oregon Ducks, Michigan Wolverines, and Purdue Boilermakers have also started off strong in Big Ten play, rounding out the top five teams in the conference standings.

• As of mid-January, there are seven teams currently in KenPom’s Top 25 for adjusted efficiency margin.

With four former Pac-12 members, including the Oregon Ducks, UCLA Bruins, Washington Huskies, and USC Trojans, jumping from their sinking ship to a sturdy conference, it will be even more challenging to win the Big Ten Tournament than ever before!

With Zach Edey now in the NBA, the Big Ten has been wide-open. Early frontrunners like Purdue and Indiana are still in the mix; however, Michigan, Michigan State, and Illinois seem to be the conference’s heavyweight contenders.

Find the odds for every team in the Big Ten Tournament below!

Big Ten Tournament Odds 

While the Big Ten Tournament odds won’t be out until a few weeks before the 2025 Big Ten Tournament, we have listed our favorites below, including an analysis and why we believe they can win.

Big Ten Tournament Predictions - Big Ten Favorites to Win 

The Big Ten has 18 teams, which means that it will be more difficult than ever to win the conference tournament. Which teams are our favorites to run through the conference gauntlet next March? Let’s break it down below!

Michigan State Spartans

It’s safe to say that head coach Tom Izzo isn’t a big fan of the transfer portal. Or, perhaps, he feels like he doesn’t need it to continue being successful.

Regardless of his feelings on the ever-changing landscape of college basketball, Izzo keeps moving forward, finding players who are bought into the program and will play hard every second they are on the floor.

Minutes are earned, not given, at Michigan State.

Izzo lost Tyson Walker and Malik Hall to eligibility, and AJ Hoggard to the portal, but still retained Jaden Akins, Coen Carr, Jaxon Kohler, Tre Holloman, Jeremy Fears Jr, and Xavier Booker; he also recruited 4-star guard Jase Richardson and snagged Frankie Fidler in the portal. 

Fidler was his only portal addition.

The issues from last season persist, as the Spartans shoot just 28.6% from 3-point land, which is the second-worst clip among high-major programs nationally. 

For that reason, shot selection can also be dicey, as the Spartans shoot a lot of contested  mid-range jump shots. Needless to say, the advanced analytics don’t love their shot selection.

Still, Michigan State boasts a stifling defense (12th in adjD) that holds opponents to the 21st-lowest effective field goal percentage and pulls down the 15th-highest percentage of their misses (defensive rebounding percentage).

Additionally, the Spartans have a top-25 offense despite their occasional struggles on that end of the floor. 

If they can clean up the turnovers and shoot a bit more consistently from the perimeter, they will be incredibly tough to beat when the Big Ten Conference Tournament rolls around.

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Illinois Fighting Illini

Illinois brought in almost a completely different unit from last season’s team.

In fact, the Fighting Illini lost Terrence Shannon Jr, Coleman Hawkins, Marcus Domask, Quincy Guerrier, Ty Rodgers, Luke Goode, Dain Dainja, and Justin Harmon. 

You get the picture; it was a complete roster turnaround.

Head coach Brad Underwood hit the recruiting trail and transfer portal and came up with a fantastic backup plan for if several players decided to depart.

Underwood snagged Kasparas Jakucionis, Tomislav Ivisic, Will Riley, Kylan Boswell, Tre White, and Ben Humrichous, who have become a strong core for a bordering-on-elite team.

Jakucionis had a slow start but has been sensational since then; he has a case for Big Ten Player of the Year if he continues filling up the box score and producing on both ends of the floor.

Then, there’s the Fighting Illini’s frontcourt, which features Ivisic, Riley, and Humrichous. 

As of mid-January, this team ranks second in total rebounding rate, fifth in points per game, and eighth in opponent effective field goal percentage nationally.

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Purdue Boilermakers

Few teams can afford to lose a back-to-back Wooden Award winner (Zach Edey) and remain ranked in the Top 25 the following season. 

Even fewer can say that they can do that with zero 5-star recruits and an entirely homegrown program that doesn’t rely heavily on NIL money or transfers to build out their roster.

However, that is exactly what head coach Matt Painter and the Boilermakers have done.

The Boilers won’t be a Final Four-caliber team this season, as they are incredibly thin offensively outside of their core trio of Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer, and Trey Kaufman-Renn.

However, that does not mean that they can’t compete for a Big Ten Tournament title, especially in what looks like a “down year” for the conference.

Painter is still one of the conference’s best coaches, evidenced by the team’s current top-ten standing in adjusted offensive efficiency (KenPom), and Purdue has one of the conference’s best players in Smith.

That formula can cause some problems come conference tournament time.

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Who Will Win the Big Ten Tournament - My Pick 

Illinois Fighting Illini

It was a slow start to the 2024-25 regular season for the Illinois Fighting Illini, but much of that had to do with the fact that very few of these players had taken the floor with one another before this year.

However, this team’s prowess and skill on both ends of the floor is completely undeniable behind Big Ten Player of the Year candidate Kasparas Jakucionis, a do-it-all guard, and dominant 7-foot-1 big man Tomislav Ivisic.

At the time this was written, Illinois had climbed to 13th in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margin, boasting a top 25 offense and defense.

As the season progresses, this team will continue to build the necessary chemistry to compete for a Big Ten Tournament title.

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Who Won the Big Ten Tournament in 2024

The two-seeded Illinois Fighting Illini secured the Big Ten Tournament championship in 2024, avoiding the top-seeded Purdue, who fell to Wisconsin by one point in the semifinals.

Illinois leaned heavily on Terrence Shannon Jr. throughout the conference and NCAA Tournaments.

In fact, he averaged 31.2 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 2.7 assists on a 53/41/82 shooting split in three Big Ten Tournament games and the first two NCAA Tournament games before being shut down by UConn, the eventual National Champions.

Big Ten Tournament History

The Big Ten Tournament was originated in 1998 and has been held every season since, with the exception of 2020 due to the COVID-19 virus. The Michigan Wolverines were the first Big Ten Tournament winner in 1998, with Robert Traylor winning the first Most Outstanding Player in the tournament’s history.

The United Center and Gainbridge Fieldhouse (formerly named Conseco Fieldhouse and Banker’s Life Fieldhouse) have each hosted the Big Ten Tournament 11 times, while the Verizon Center, Lucas Oil Stadium, and Madison Square Garden have held the tournament once apiece. This season (2024), the Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota will be the host venue.

As a No. 8 seed, the Michigan Wolverines won the Big Ten Tournament in 2017, becoming the lowest seed to win the tournament.

Past 15 Big Ten Tournament Winners

Below is a look at all of the past 15 Big Ten Tournament champions, beginning with the most recent winners. Take a look.

How to Choose the Best Sportsbook for Betting on the Big Ten Tournament

It might seem like merely a decision rooted in personal preference or brand awareness but choosing the best sportsbook to sign up with can be one of the most important decisions a bettor makes. Some bettors have multiple sportsbooks so that they can shop odds between them and get the best value for their bets, but if you are a casual bettor and are only interested in one sportsbook, then this is a huge decision.

There are a number of things to consider when choosing a sportsbook, including the welcome bonuses, user interface, functionality, withdrawal options and timing, and more. Check out the table below to see which sportsbook you want to bet on for the Big Ten Tournament:

How to Read Big Ten Tournament Winner Odds

For new bettors, the display of odds can be overwhelming and confusing when they are starting out, so we will explain this concisely. If listed odds have a minus sign (-) in front of them, it means that team/player/etc… is a favorite. For instance, if Purdue is a -150 odds favorite to win the Big Ten Tournament, then you would have to bet $150 to win $100. That is the same case for any bet that has odds with a minus sign in front of them.

If a bet has a plus sign (+) in front of its odds, then it is an underdog, meaning that you have to bet $100 to win that number. For example, if the Northwestern Wildcats are +500 to win the Big Ten Tournament, then you would only have to bet $100 to win $500 because they are much less likely to win than other teams.