Big Ten Tournament Predictions, Betting Odds & Favorites: Purdue Retrieves Top Spot in Big Ten

• Purdue holds narrow lead in Big Ten standings over the Michigan Wolverines and Michigan State Spartans.

• As of early February, six Big Ten teams sit in the AP Poll’s Top 25, while seven are inside the Top 25 of KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margin metric.

• Braden Smith appears to be the clear frontrunner for Big Ten Player of the Year after an impressive 31-point outing in a win against the Iowa Hawkeyes on the road.

As anticipated, the Big Ten has been even more challenging now that four former Pac-12 members, including the Oregon Ducks, UCLA Bruins, Washington Huskies, and USC Trojans, jumped from the Pac-12, a sinking ship, to a sturdy, ever-expanding conference.

While it seemed that the departure of back-to-back Wooden Award winner, Zach Edey, would help the conference gain a bit more parity, the Purdue Boilermakers have still managed to dominate, sitting in first place in the Big Ten through the first week of February.

Still, the Big Ten Conference Tournament is more than a month away, leaving plenty of time and opportunity for other teams to swoop in and steal the automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament from the other top dogs in the conference, like Purdue, Michigan, and Michigan State.

Big Ten Tournament Odds 

While the Big Ten Tournament odds won’t be out until a few weeks before the 2025 Big Ten Tournament, we have listed our favorites below, including an analysis and why we believe they can win.

Big Ten Tournament Predictions - Big Ten Favorites to Win 

The Big Ten has 18 teams, which means that it will be more difficult than ever to win the conference tournament. Which teams are our favorites to run through the conference gauntlet next March? Let’s break it down below!

Michigan State Spartans

It’s safe to say that head coach Tom Izzo isn’t a big fan of the transfer portal. Or, perhaps, he feels like he doesn’t need it to continue being successful.

Regardless of his feelings on the ever-changing landscape of college basketball, Izzo keeps moving forward, finding players who are bought into the program and will play hard every second they are on the floor.

Minutes are earned, not given, at Michigan State.

Izzo lost Tyson Walker and Malik Hall to eligibility, and AJ Hoggard to the portal, but still retained Jaden Akins, Coen Carr, Jaxon Kohler, Tre Holloman, Jeremy Fears Jr, and Xavier Booker; he also recruited 4-star guard Jase Richardson and snagged Frankie Fidler in the portal. 

Fidler was his only portal addition.

The issues from last season persist, as the Spartans shoot just 28.6% from 3-point land, which is the second-worst clip among high-major programs nationally. 

For that reason, shot selection can also be dicey, as the Spartans shoot a lot of contested  mid-range jump shots. Needless to say, the advanced analytics don’t love their shot selection.

Still, Michigan State boasts a stifling defense (12th in adjD) that holds opponents to the 21st-lowest effective field goal percentage and pulls down the 15th-highest percentage of their misses (defensive rebounding percentage).

Additionally, the Spartans have a top-25 offense despite their occasional struggles on that end of the floor. 

If they can clean up the turnovers and shoot a bit more consistently from the perimeter, they will be incredibly tough to beat when the Big Ten Conference Tournament rolls around.

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Illinois Fighting Illini

Illinois brought in almost a completely different unit from last season’s team.

In fact, the Fighting Illini lost Terrence Shannon Jr, Coleman Hawkins, Marcus Domask, Quincy Guerrier, Ty Rodgers, Luke Goode, Dain Dainja, and Justin Harmon. 

You get the picture; it was a complete roster turnaround.

Head coach Brad Underwood hit the recruiting trail and transfer portal and came up with a fantastic backup plan for if several players decided to depart.

Underwood snagged Kasparas Jakucionis, Tomislav Ivisic, Will Riley, Kylan Boswell, Tre White, and Ben Humrichous, who have become a strong core for a bordering-on-elite team.

Jakucionis had a slow start but has been sensational since then; he has a case for Big Ten Player of the Year if he continues filling up the box score and producing on both ends of the floor.

Then, there’s the Fighting Illini’s frontcourt, which features Ivisic, Riley, and Humrichous. 

As of early February, the Fighting Illini rank first in total rebounding rate, fourth in points per game, and fourth in opponent effective field goal percentage nationally.

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Purdue Boilermakers

Few teams can afford to lose a back-to-back Wooden Award winner (Zach Edey) and remain ranked in the Top 25 the following season. 

Even fewer can say that they can do that with zero 5-star recruits and an entirely homegrown program that doesn’t rely heavily on NIL money or transfers to build out their roster.

However, that is exactly what head coach Matt Painter and the Boilermakers have done.

The Boilers won’t be a Final Four-caliber team this season, as they are incredibly thin offensively outside of their core trio of Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer, and Trey Kaufman-Renn.

However, that does not mean that they can’t compete for a Big Ten Tournament title, especially in what looks like a “down year” for the conference.

Painter is still one of the conference’s best coaches, evidenced by the team’s current top-ten standing in adjusted offensive efficiency (KenPom), and Purdue has one of the conference’s best players in Smith.

That formula can cause some problems come conference tournament time.

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Who Will Win the Big Ten Tournament - My Pick 

Illinois Fighting Illini

While Illinois’s road play has been a bit dicey at times in conference play, and it certainly has no shot at winning the Big Ten regular season title, the Fighting Illini are still my pick to hoist the conference tournament trophy in March.

Any time a team can hold opponents to one of the five-lowest effective field goal percentages nationally while also being a top five scoring team in the country, that is usually a recipe for success.

Further, the Fighting Illini have a healthy balance of talent and scoring distribution across their frontcourt and backcourt; they don’t have any weak units or positions like some other top teams in the conference.

There is still work to be done for this team to reach their full potential but with a month left before the start of the Big Ten Tournament, they can definitely get to a conference championship level!

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Who Won the Big Ten Tournament in 2024

The two-seeded Illinois Fighting Illini secured the Big Ten Tournament championship in 2024, avoiding the top-seeded Purdue, who fell to Wisconsin by one point in the semifinals.

Illinois leaned heavily on Terrence Shannon Jr. throughout the conference and NCAA Tournaments.

In fact, he averaged 31.2 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 2.7 assists on a 53/41/82 shooting split in three Big Ten Tournament games and the first two NCAA Tournament games before being shut down by UConn, the eventual National Champions.

Big Ten Tournament History

The Big Ten Tournament was originated in 1998 and has been held every season since, with the exception of 2020 due to the COVID-19 virus. The Michigan Wolverines were the first Big Ten Tournament winner in 1998, with Robert Traylor winning the first Most Outstanding Player in the tournament’s history.

The United Center and Gainbridge Fieldhouse (formerly named Conseco Fieldhouse and Banker’s Life Fieldhouse) have each hosted the Big Ten Tournament 11 times, while the Verizon Center, Lucas Oil Stadium, and Madison Square Garden have held the tournament once apiece. This season (2024), the Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota will be the host venue.

As a No. 8 seed, the Michigan Wolverines won the Big Ten Tournament in 2017, becoming the lowest seed to win the tournament.

Past 15 Big Ten Tournament Winners

Below is a look at all of the past 15 Big Ten Tournament champions, beginning with the most recent winners. Take a look.

How to Choose the Best Sportsbook for Betting on the Big Ten Tournament

It might seem like merely a decision rooted in personal preference or brand awareness but choosing the best sportsbook to sign up with can be one of the most important decisions a bettor makes. Some bettors have multiple sportsbooks so that they can shop odds between them and get the best value for their bets, but if you are a casual bettor and are only interested in one sportsbook, then this is a huge decision.

There are a number of things to consider when choosing a sportsbook, including the welcome bonuses, user interface, functionality, withdrawal options and timing, and more. Check out the table below to see which sportsbook you want to bet on for the Big Ten Tournament:

How to Read Big Ten Tournament Winner Odds

For new bettors, the display of odds can be overwhelming and confusing when they are starting out, so we will explain this concisely. If listed odds have a minus sign (-) in front of them, it means that team/player/etc… is a favorite. For instance, if Purdue is a -150 odds favorite to win the Big Ten Tournament, then you would have to bet $150 to win $100. That is the same case for any bet that has odds with a minus sign in front of them.

If a bet has a plus sign (+) in front of its odds, then it is an underdog, meaning that you have to bet $100 to win that number. For example, if the Northwestern Wildcats are +500 to win the Big Ten Tournament, then you would only have to bet $100 to win $500 because they are much less likely to win than other teams.