College Basketball Picks Today: Houston vs. Florida in the National Championship Game

If the NCAA National Championship game is half as exciting as the Final Four was Saturday night, fans are in for a great one tonight between Houston (35-4) and Florida (35-4). For the final game of the year, sportsbooks will be offering plenty of markets for your betting pleasure.

Many sportsbooks are carrying upwards of 200 markets related to the national championship game. With so many, it can be hard to decide which one or ones you want to bet on. That’s where we come in.

The following are our best bets for the National Championship game featuring the Florida Gators of the SEC and the Houston Cougars of the Big 12.

Houston (-102) vs. Florida (-1.5), O/U 141.5 at BetMGM

I would certainly not call betting on a winner for this game one of the ‘best bets’ of the day. But it’s something I do feel compelled to weigh in on. Picking a winner for this game boils down to one thing:

Do you believe in offense winning games or defense winning championships?

Houston has an adequate offense that averages around 73 points per game, but they are a defense-driven team. As they should be since they have the No. 1 defense in the country (58.5 points per game allowed.

But Florida is averaging 85 points per game this season (No. 3 in the country), and also does a decent job on defense (69.8 points per game allowed).

• MY PICK: Houston ML (-102) at BetMGM

The Houston defense will do what it can to lock down Walter Clayton Jr. and force the Gators to win with someone else leading the way. While their roster is talented, I don’t see someone else stepping up to help Clayton Jr. out.

Now, the Cougars will not shut Clayton Jr. down, but they’ll make him work hard for every point he scores. In the end, he will not score enough.

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First Half Total UNDER 66.5 Points at -115 (bet365)

Houston is going to do whatever it can to slow the pace down, because that is something they are good at. Florida likes to pick up the pace, but it is not unusual for teams to be more cautious in the first half of a title game and slow down a bit.

Florida’s Tournament games have been fairly consistent, with around 77 points scored in the first half and 80 in the second. But Houston’s first halves have been under 60 (last four), with the score jumping to 75+ points for the second half.

The Cougars will get their way in the first half and keep the score down (and below 66.5). If you really believe the first half will be all about defense, you may want to consider taking the UNDER at FanDuel, where it’s 65.5 at -106.

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Florida vs. Houston: Player Props

L.J. Cryer, OVER 2.5 Made Threes at +110 (bet365)

One of the keys to Houston’s upset win over Duke Saturday was L.J. Cryer making it rain from three-point range (6-9). Whether Houston makes it competitive (or wins) will depend on whether he has a similar night vs. Florida.

Yes, Florida plays solid perimeter defense, but so did Duke, and that didn’t matter in the end. Whether Cryer hits enough to help the team win is hard to say, but he’ll attempt enough to make at least three in the national championship game.

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Alex Condon, UNDER 14.5 Points + Rebounds at -118 (FanDuel)

Condon averaged 10.5 points per game this season and 7.8 rebounds, but his production has been nowhere near that in the Tournament. He had 12 points and five rebounds in the first round vs. Norfolk State, but has since failed to get over 14.5 rebounds and points.

He had a single point and four rebounds in 23 minutes vs. Auburn.

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J’Wan Roberts, OVER 6.5 Rebounds at +104 (FanDuel)

Roberts averaged 6.5 but has stepped up his game during the Tournament when he’s played for 30+ minutes. In those three games, he had eight (vs. Gonzaga), 12 (vs. Purdue), and 12 (vs. Duke).

With a national championship on the line, I expect Roberts will play 30+ minutes as long as he does not get into foul trouble. He did against Tennessee, so that is a concern. It doesn’t help that Florida is a solid rebounding team.

If this number were any higher or if the odds were minus money, I’d say pass on this one. But with the total set at his season average and plus money odds, I like the value here.

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Walter Clayton Jr, UNDER 19.5 Points at +104 (Caesars)

If you think Florida is going to win, you don’t need to read this section anymore. But if you believe Houston’s defense is up to the challenge of holding Clayton to under 20 points for just the second time in the Tournament, then take this bet.

Because if you believe Houston has a shot to win, containing Clayton and holding him to no more than his season average (18.5 points per game) will be crucial. If you think the No. 1 defense in the country is up to the task, this market has value.

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