The magical month of March has already given us several memorable moments, but we haven’t even started the NCAA Tournament yet.
Today, the Round of 64 kicks off with some enthralling first-round matchups, including the No. 4 Purdue Boilermakers versus the No. 13 High Point Panthers, and the No. 8 Gonzaga Bulldogs versus the No. 9 Georgia Bulldogs.
Keep reading below to find our best college basketball picks and bets for these two blockbuster matchups!
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Date: Thursday, March 20
Time: 12:40 pm EST
Moneyline: High Point +260 | Purdue -330
Spread: High Point +7.5 (-104) | Purdue -7.5 (-118)
Total: Over 154.5 (-105) | Under 154.5 (-115)
All odds are available via FanDuel Sportsbook but are subject to change.
The blueprint is out there for teams to follow: take Braden Smith out of the game and the Boilermakers become an average basketball team.
Outside of Smith, Purdue has no creators.
Fletcher Loyer relies on screens and others to create for him to get a clean shot and Trey Kaufman-Renn is a fantastic post player, but if you root him out of the paint, he becomes much less effective.
High Point has one of the top offenses in the country (25th in adjusted offensive efficiency) and can keep this game within striking distance.
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This season marks the first time that the High Point Panthers have made an NCAA Tournament at the Division I level. And they certainly deserve it.
High Point finished with a 29-5 record and the 25th-ranked offense (KenPom) behind the trio of Kezza Giffa, D’Maurian Williams, and Kimani Hamilton.
The Panthers have had a super easy schedule, to say the least; however, their adjusted offensive efficiency ranking tells a clear story. This team is the real deal on that end of the floor.
In fact, they have the 12th-highest effective field goal percentage in the country and are a fringe top-50 team on the offensive glass.
High Point also values ball protection (47th in turnovers per game) and has the depth necessary to avoid the perils of foul trouble.
Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn have carried the Boilermakers to a No. 4 seed in this year’s NCAA Tournament despite losing two-time Wooden Award winner Zach Edey to the NBA Draft.
Smith is undoubtedly one of the best point guards in college basketball, while TKR has a case for being one of the most efficient offensive power forwards in the country.
Fletcher Loyer also is a reliable third option and can get red-hot from 3-point land at any time, as he has fired at an incredible 46.4% clip from deep this season.
The issue with the Boilers is that they have no players outside of those three who could be remotely considered an offensive weapon.
Smith, Kaufman-Renn, and Loyer have helped guide this Purdue team to a strong finish in the Big Ten and the seventh-ranked offense nationally; however, the Boilers have their hands full against High Point.
Date: Thursday, March 20
Time: 4:35 pm EST
Moneyline: Georgia +210 | Gonzaga -260
Spread: Georgia +6.5 (-110) | Gonzaga -6.5 (-110)
Total: Over 151.5 (-110) | Under 151.5 (-110)
All odds are available via FanDuel Sportsbook but are subject to change.
This is a no-brainer pick for me. Gonzaga has all of the characteristics you look for in a March Madness underdog: talent, cohesion, offense, and a hot streak.
Of course, the phrase “underdog” is relative, but you get the point.
Meanwhile, Georgia is fresh off a really bad loss to Oklahoma in the SEC Tournament, a game in which it allowed the Sooners to fire at a 48% clip from the field and 3-point land.
I’ll take the ‘Zags, who can lean on their reliable and experienced point guard Ryan Nembhard to avoid costly mistakes and control the game.
Georgia is a talented defensive team but it is way too inconsistent on the offensive end of the floor to back it against this Gonzaga team.
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Normally, a team that is 8-10 in conference play would not sniff the NCAA Tournament unless they backdoored their way through their conference tournament.
However, the Georgia Bulldogs are in the SEC, and this year, that conference has been dominant on a historic level.
Before losing to 14-seeded Oklahoma in the SEC Tournament, the Bulldogs were on a bit of a run, rattling off four consecutive wins, including an impressive home victory over Florida.
Georgia is a solid team but ranks outside the top 50 offensively and the top 25 defensively.
Further, the Bulldogs rank 287th in the country in turnovers per game, which will be a problem against a high-octane and uber-efficient Gonzaga squad.
The Bulldogs are cruising after securing four consecutive wins, including a seven-point victory over WCC regular-season champion St. Mary’s.
Gonzaga has had a roller coaster season but it is playing its best basketball of the year right now, and the timing could not be more perfect.
Entering the Round of 64, the ‘Zags rank ninth in KenPon’s adjusted efficiency margin metric, boasting a top 10 offense nationally.
On that end of the floor, Gonzaga is elite, averaging the second-most points per game on the 26th-highest effective field goal percentage.
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