College Basketball Picks Today: Can UNC Prove Doubters Wrong in First Four Matchup?

After squeaking into the NCAA Tournament in a very suspect manner, the North Carolina Tar Heels will certainly have a lot to prove. 

For their “First Four” matchup, the Heels will face off against San Diego State, consistently one of the best mid-major programs in the country.

Keep reading below for our best college basketball pick for this “First Four” matchup on Tuesday!

The following odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Place a $5 wager at FanDuel Sportsbook and receive $200 in bonus bets if your bet wins.

UNC @ San Diego State Odds

• Date: Tuesday, March 18

• Time: 9:10 pm EST

• Moneyline: UNC -172 | San Diego State +142

• Spread: UNC -3.5 (-112) | San Diego State +3.5 (-108)

• Total: Over 142.5 (-110) | Under 142.5 (-110)

All odds are available via FanDuel Sportsbook but are subject to change.

PICK: UNC -3.5 (-112) at FanDuel

Sure, it has been an underwhelming season for the Tar Heels, and their entry into the NCAA Tournament undoubtedly raised some eyebrows.

However, this team can be lethal on the offensive floor, opening the door for them to knock off teams that simply don’t have enough firepower to keep the game close.

That is exactly what we have on Tuesday night with this matchup between the Heels and the San Diego State Aztecs.

San Diego State ranks outside the top 100 in adjusted offensive efficiency and struggles to consistently knock down both its 3-point shots (228th in 3P%) and free throws (334th in FT%).

Additionally, the Aztecs are not a force on the glass (191st in total rebounding rate) like they have been in previous seasons, which makes their margin for error virtually zero against talented, tournament-caliber teams.

This should be a tight game until the final few minutes. At that point, the Heels will pull away due to their high-powered offense and superior rebounding and free throw shooting abilities.

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UNC Prediction

North Carolina backdoored its way into the NCAA Tournament despite securing just one Quad 1 win this season. And the head of the committee this year was the UNC AD. Yikes.

While their resume leaves a lot to be desired, the Heels still rank 33rd in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margin and have the 22nd-best offense in the country.

Leading up to the ACC Tournament matchup against the Duke Blue Devils, North Carolina had shot roughly 50% from the field and 45% from 3-point range over a nine-game stretch.

Guard play is crucial in March, so the core of RJ Davis, Elliot Cadeau, Seth Trimble, and Ian Jackson could carry this team into the Field of 64. 

In fact, if the Heels stay hot offensively and can add a sense of urgency defensively, they might even be able to string together a few wins in the NCAA Tournament.

San Diego State Prediction

The Aztecs are now two seasons removed from their unlikely run to the National Championship game; however, their style of play and culture remain intact.

San Diego State boasts a top-13 defense this season but it has really struggled at times on the offensive end of the floor.

During their 2024-25 campaign, the Aztecs have ranked 186th in field goal percentage, 259th in points per game, 228th in 3-point percentage, and 127th in turnovers per game. 

A concern for the Aztecs, beyond just their occasional offensive droughts, is their free throw percentage, which sits at 334th nationally. 

In close games, opponents will have an advantage in free throw shooting, which oftentimes is the difference between winning and losing during March Madness.

Further, San Diego State is nowhere near as good of a rebounding team as it has been in previous seasons, meaning the Aztecs will have an uphill battle against a far superior squad on the glass.