College Basketball Picks Today: Duke Faces UNC Without Flagg

After suffering an ugly ankle injury, it appears that the Duke Blue Devils will have to take on their rival North Carolina without star forward Cooper Flagg.

The winner of the Duke and North Carolina matchup will advance to the championship game of the ACC Tournament, so the stakes will be incredibly high.

Additionally, the Purdue Boilermakers will battle the Michigan Wolverines for a chance to go to the semifinals of the Big Ten Tournament.

Keep reading below to find our best college basketball picks today for these two incredible conference tournament matchups!

The following odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Place a $5 wager at FanDuel Sportsbook and receive $200 in bonus bets if your bet wins.

Purdue @ Michigan Odds

• Date: Friday, March 14

• Time: 9:00 pm EST

• Moneyline: Purdue -152 | Michigan +126

• Spread: Purdue -3.5 (-102) | Michigan +3.5 (-120)

• Total: Over 146.5 (-115) | Under 146.5 (-105)

All odds are available via FanDuel Sportsbook but are subject to change. 

PICK: Michigan +3.5 (-120) at FanDuel

As hesitant as I am about backing Michigan once the NCAA Tournament rolls around, this seems like an opportune situation for the Wolverines.

Despite being blown out on the road earlier this season, they were able to pull out a narrow home win against the Boilers in February.

Michigan has not played great basketball recently, but it is one of the most efficient paint teams (offensively) in the country, ranking seventh in 2-point percentage. 

And the Wolverines are going against an undersized Purdue team that struggles to defend inside the perimeter. In fact, the Boilers are 341st nationally in opponent 2-point percentage.

The question will be whether or not Michigan’s guards can protect the ball, which has been an issue all season. Luckily, the Wolverines have seen Purdue twice this season already, so they will know what to expect.

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Purdue Prediction

Purdue squeaked out a five-point win against No. 14 seeded USC thanks to a suspect late-game foul call on the Trojans.

The Boilers were carried by star forward Trey Kaufman-Renn, who finished with 30 points on 12-for-20 shooting from the floor. As a team, Purdue shot just shy of 48% from the field and 40% from 3-point range. 

Purdue’s elite top-10 offensive attack was on full display but its defense, particularly in the paint, again struggled. It will be a challenge for the Boilers to stop two talented 7-footers in the paint on Friday night.

Michigan Prediction

The Wolverines may have locked up the No. 3 seed in the Big Ten Tournament but they have drawn quite a bit of criticism due to their overall point differential in conference play.

Between Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin, Michigan has one of the best frontcourts in the country but guard play has been sporadic at times.

While the Wolverines boast a top-20 defense nationally, their offense has really struggled, shooting just 22% from 3-point land over their past six games.

And as it is already widely known, the Wolverines are one of the worst teams at protecting the ball this season (347th in turnovers per game).

UNC @ Duke Odds

• Date: Friday, March 14

• Time: 7:00 pm EST

• Moneyline: UNC +270 | Duke -345

• Spread: UNC +8.5 (-118) | Duke -8.5 (-104)

• Total: Over 154.5 (-110) | Under 154.5 (-110)

All odds are available via FanDuel Sportsbook but are subject to change.

PICK: UNC +8.5 (-118) at FanDuel

With as hot as North Carolina has been on the offensive end of the floor, it is challenging to see a Flagg-less Duke squad pull away from the Tar Heels.

Before their last game, the Heels had boasted an effective field goal percentage of 61% over their past eight outings, so anything remotely similar to that output offensively will result in a competitive game.

Expect UNC to take advantage of this opportunity against its rival, which will be without its star player, a situation it is not familiar with.

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UNC Prediction

UNC has actually had a strong late-season surge, winning eight of its past nine games. Unfortunately, the Tar Heels’ sole loss was on their home floor against Duke.

Leading up to their last game against Wake Forest, the Heels had been shooting the lights out of the ball. They have fired at roughly a 52% clip from the field and 46% mark from behind the arc in that stretch.

Defense has still been a relative shortcoming but if the Tar Heels rebound the ball well and at least protect the perimeter, they could win this game.

Duke Prediction

Duke stormed through its competition for the entire 2024-25 regular season, slaughtering nearly every opponent, save Kansas and Kentucky early in the season when it was still putting pieces of the puzzle together and in a road matchup against Clemson.

However, the Blue Devils are staring at a significant issue: they will be without star forward Cooper Flagg due to an ankle injury.

While Duke is still a force on both ends of the floor, it will have to adjust to life without its leading scorer, rebounder, passer, and defender (blocks and steals per game). Don’t overlook the difficulty of having to learn how to adjust to that on the fly.