College Basketball Picks Today: Last Tune-Up Opportunity for Purdue and Illinois

Conference tournaments have begun nationwide, and the Big Ten Tournament is merely days away!

Purdue and Illinois, two of the best teams in the Big Ten, will play tonight in their final regular-season game before the conference tournament. 

The top-seeded Memphis Tigers will also play one final tune-up game against South Florida before battling in the AAC Tournament.

Read below for our full breakdown and best college basketball picks for these matchups!

No. 18 Purdue @ Illinois Odds

• Date: Friday, March 7

• Time: 8:00 pm EST

• Moneyline: Purdue +146 | Illinois -178

• Spread: Purdue +3.5 (-102) | Illinois -3.5 (-120)

• Total: Over 159.5 (-110) | Under 159.5 (-110)

All odds are available via FanDuel Sportsbook but are subject to change.

PICK: Purdue +3.5 (-110) at FanDuel

This isn’t a do-or-die game for either the Boilers or Fighting Illini, as both teams are safely in the Big Ten and NCAA Tournaments; however, Purdue has a bit more on the line in this game.

The Boilers are fighting for the highly coveted “double-bye” in the Big Ten Tournament, which would allow them to be a bit fresher and more rested.

And Purdue’s offense has been clicking in its past two games, as it has shot 54% from the field and 50% from 3-point range on a substantial volume.

Meanwhile, Illinois has struggled this season from the 3-point line, allowing the Boilers to pack the paint and emphasize the defensive glass.

Even if Purdue can’t secure the win, I expect it to show up and lay it on the line on Friday night.

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Purdue Prediction

Purdue shook off a four-game slide by winning back-to-back home games over a surging UCLA team and the Rutgers Scarlet Knights.

Boiler fans can rejoice, as star guard Braden Smith has returned to form, and head coach Matt Painter has answered questions about how the team would handle zones defensively.

Purdue’s elite offensive attack (eighth in adjusted offensive efficiency) puts it at 12th in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margin and 13th in BartTorvik’s Power Rating.

However, the Boilers rely heavily on Smith, Fletcher Loyer, and Trey Kaufman-Renn for offense, so they could be in trouble if they have “off” games against great opponents.

Illinois Prediction

At one point, the Illinois Fighting Illini appeared to be a legitimate Big Ten regular season title contender; however, a rough 2-4 stretch from the middle of January through the beginning of February dashed those hopes.

Still, this Fighting Illini team is among the best in the conference, ranking 19th in adjusted efficiency margin (KenPom). 

Illinois boasts the 14th-best offense behind guard Kasparas Jakucionis, a likely lottery pick. 

Jakucionis has averaged just shy of 16 points, six rebounds, and five assists per game on 46% shooting from the field.

The Fighting Illini play at a lightning-fast pace (18th in adjusted tempo) and are a top-ten rebounding team nationally. 

South Florida @ No. 16 Memphis Odds

• Date: Friday, March 7

• Time: 9:00 pm EST

• Moneyline: South Florida +720 | Memphis -1200

• Spread: South Florida +13.5 (-110) | Memphis -13.5 (-110)

• Total: Over 150.5 (-110) | Under 150.5 (-110)

All odds are available via FanDuel Sportsbook but are subject to change. 

PICK: Memphis -13.5 (-110) at FanDuel

Dain Dainja has come on strong in the second half of the Tigers’ season, giving them a dominant and consistent inside force to pair with their elite backcourt of Tyrese Hunter and PJ Haggerty.

Further, Hunter, Haggerty, and guard Colby Rogers have made Memphis a top-ten 3-point shooting team in the country.

The Bulls have been atrocious at covering the spread this season (9-20 ATS). In fact, they have the sixth-worst ATS record in college basketball.

The bottom line: South Florida’s offense will struggle against Memphis’s top 40 defense (adjD), so this should be a blowout.

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South Florida Prediction

South Florida has been one of the worst road teams (2-9) in the AAC this season and is riding a four-game losing streak. 

The Bulls also have the sixth-worst spread record in the country, covering only nine times this season.

While South Florida has been respectable on the defensive end of the floor (162nd in adjusted defensive efficiency), the Bulls have been an atrocity on offense.

In their past three games, they have scored just 63.7 points per game, the 35th-lowest average (out of 364 teams), on 38.2% shooting from the field in the country. 

Memphis Prediction

The Memphis Tigers have locked in the top seed for the AAC Tournament by winning the conference regular-season title. 

While advanced metrics don’t love the Tigers (49th in adjEM), they have had quite an impressive season, securing huge non-conference wins over Michigan State, Missouri, and UConn.

PJ Haggerty and Tyrese Hunter have formed one of the best backcourt duos in the country. Both players shoot 40% or better from 3-point range.

However, Dain Dainja has been Memphis’s difference-maker during the second half of the season; he has averaged 17.4 points and 8.3 rebounds per game over the Tigers’ past 11 games.