College Basketball Picks Today: Spartans Can Clinch Big Ten Title Outright With Win

Thursday night’s matchup between the No. 8 Michigan State Spartans and the Iowa Hawkeyes could determine the Big Ten regular season title.

With a win, Michigan State would win the Big Ten outright, while a loss would mean it could still be forced to share the regular season title; the Spartans would have to beat Michigan to win outright if they can’t knock off Iowa on the road.

The stakes are sky-high on Thursday, so keep reading to find our best college basketball picks today!

No. 8 Michigan State @ Iowa Odds

• Date: Thursday, March 6

• Time: 8:00 pm EST

• Moneyline: Michigan -275 | Iowa +220

• Spread: Michigan -6.5 (-110) | Iowa +6.5 (-110)

• Total: Over 152.5 (-110) | Under 152.5 (-110)

All odds are available via FanDuel Sportsbook but are subject to change.

PICK: Michigan State -6.5 (-105) at FanDuel

The Spartans have a lot to play for on Thursday night, as they can shut the door on Michigan and secure the Big Ten title.

While Iowa has been fantastic on the offensive end of the floor at home, it struggles to be an effective rebounding team, which will allow the Spartans to score easy second-chance points.

Further, the Spartans’ perimeter defense is antagonizing. If they run the Hawkeyes off the line, they will be forced to hit tough twos in the paint.

And Iowa’s porous defense does not provide enough resistance to keep it in the game against a team as balanced as Michigan State.

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Michigan State Prediction

No matter what happens in the next two games, the Michigan State Spartans will at least have locked up a share of the Big Ten regular season title.

However, the Spartans undoubtedly want the title for themselves, especially since a potential share would be with in-state rival Michigan.

The Spartans crash the offensive glass hard (22nd nationally in OREB%), defend the 3-point line (fourth in opponent 3P%), and find ways to score high-level points inside the paint and mid-range.

Iowa Prediction

The Big Ten’s worst road team (1-8) will luckily be on their home floor tonight. 

Iowa’s 34th-ranked offense typically has success at home, as it shoots 51.3% from the field (11th nationally) and 40.3% from 3-point range (16th nationally).

The Hawkeyes’ question will be whether they can keep Michigan State off the offensive glass. 

This season, they rank merely 298th in defensive rebounding percentage, while the Spartans pull down nearly 35% of their misses.

(No. 7) Denver @ (No. 2) St. Thomas MN Odds

• Date: Thursday, March 6

• Time: 9:30 pm EST

• Moneyline: Denver +400 | St. Thomas MN -550

• Spread: Denver +9.5 (-102) | St. Thomas MN -9.5 (-120)

• Total: Over 143.5 (-115) | Under 143.5 (-105)

All odds are available via FanDuel Sportsbook but are subject to change. 

*Any ranking inside a parenthesis indicates a team’s seed number in their conference tournament, not their overall rank in the country.

PICK: St. Thomas (MN) -9.5 (-120) at FanDuel

St. Thomas won both matchups against Denver this year, and while anything can happen in March, the Tommies’ offense is simply too potent.

They score the 21st-most points in the country on the 15th-highest unadjusted offensive efficiency this season.

Conversely, Denver has one of the worst offenses in the Summit League, so it would take a miracle for the Pioneers to keep this game to single digits.

This is especially true considering this is a one-bid league, and the Tommies will be playing with even more urgency.

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Denver Prediction

Denver’s offense has been horrendous in 2024-25; it boasts the 315th-best offense per KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric.

The Pioneers’ most significant issue on that end of the floor has been their ball movement, as they have one of the lowest team assist totals in the country.

Things haven’t been much better defensively, as they foul more than any other team nationally.

Four of the Pioneers’ five conference wins have come against bottom-dwelling teams in the Summit, so they haven’t succeeded against teams toward the top of the conference.

Even the month of March can’t save Denver from a defeat in this spot.

St. Thomas (MN) Prediction

Despite being a mid-major program recently joining the Division I ranks, the St. Thomas Tommies are the real deal.

In fact, their record has improved in each of their four seasons in the “big leagues” under head coach John Tauer.

This season, the second-seeded Tommies have the 64th-best offense (KenPom) in the country behind elite 3-point shooting (38.3%) and the second-highest effective field goal percentage nationally.