Best College Basketball Picks Today: Michigan State-Michigan Game Has Big Ten Title Implications

It is not an exaggeration to suggest that today’s conference matchup between No. 14 Michigan State and No. 12 Michigan could determine which team will win the Big Ten regular-season title.

Friday night’s slate also has a Big East battle between the 16th-ranked Marquette Golden Eagles and the Villanova Wildcats.

Read below for today’s best college basketball picks for these two massive matchups!

No. 16 Marquette @ Villanova Odds

PICK: Marquette -1.5 (-110) at FanDuel

The key to this game for Marquette will be defending the 3-point line at a high level, as Villanova relies heavily on the perimeter for scoring.

The Golden Eagles rank 39th in opponent 3-point percentage this season; however, they have been even better in protecting the perimeter over their past three games (27.9%).

It is challenging to trust Villanova’s defense to get the job done, even if Marquette has had some shooting woes this season.

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Marquette Prediction

Marquette all but gave away its chances at a Big East regular-season championship with its recent three-game slide to UConn, St. John’s, and Creighton; however, the Golden Eagles have bounced back with two wins over Seton Hall and DePaul.

This season, Marquette’s offense has been an issue; it ranks merely 31st in adjusted offensive efficiency (KenPom) despite protecting the ball (third in turnovers per game) at a high level.

The absence of Tyler Kolek has been apparent for the Golden Eagles, but their 3-point shooting is the glaring issue (250th in 3P%), especially since they fire up the 15th-most per game nationally.

Villanova Prediction

Former head coach Jay Wright would be appalled with the Wildcats’ defense this season; they rank 134th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 207th in opponent 3-point percentage. 

Luckily, Villanova fires at the fourth-highest clip from 3-point range nationally, so it is often bailed out of its porous defense by efficient shooting.

It would take an extended winning streak to close out the Big East regular season for the Wildcats to backdoor their way into the NCAA Tournament.

No. 14 Michigan State @ No. 12 Michigan Odds

PICK: Michigan State +2.5 (-102) at FanDuel

With just a one-half-game lead keeping the Michigan Wolverines ahead of Michigan State for the lead in the Big Ten standings, this game carries substantial title implications.

Despite having a massive frontcourt, the Wolverines are not a great defensive-rebounding team, which could be a problem against this relentless Michigan State team.

Further, Michigan has had issues with fouling and turning the ball over; it ranks 192nd in fouls per game and 346th in turnovers per game,

Tom Izzo-led teams rarely beat themselves, giving the Spartans a slight edge to either steal a road win or, at least, keep this game within one possession.

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Michigan State Prediction

After a 9-0 start in Big Ten play, the Spartans have “come back down to Earth” a bit, losing three of their past six outings.

Michigan State has had much more success on the offensive side of the floor than last season; however, 3-point shooting is still a significant weakness, as it ranks merely 354th in 3P% nationally.

The Spartans make up for their lack of perimeter scoring with elite free-throw shooting (eighth in FT%) and physical play on the offensive glass (17th in OREB%).

Michigan Prediction

The Wolverines remain the only team in the Big Ten that has not lost on their home floor (12-0).

Michigan shoots 51.2% from the field and 38.3% from 3-point range at Crisler Center, boasting the 19th-highest average scoring margin nationally.

Head coach Dusty May has already revitalized this program in just his first season. 

He utilizes his two elite big men (Vlad Goldin and Danny Wolf) to generate offense in 4-5 ball screens and efficient half-court sets.

Michigan is one of the country’s most efficient two-point-shooting teams and boasts a fringe-top-20 defense.