Best College Basketball Picks Today: No. 19 Memphis Lurking In AAC

Two Top 25 teams have tough road tests on Thursday night.

The No. 18 Illinois Fighting Illini will travel to Nebraska for a Big Ten bout with the Cornhuskers, while No. 19 Memphis will look to grab a key road win to take back the top spot in the AAC from North Texas.

Which teams do we have winning or, at least, covering the spread on Thursday? Check out our analysis for these two games, including our best college basketball picks today!

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No. 18 Illinois @ Nebraska

• Date: Thursday, January 30

• Time: 8:30 pm EST

PICK: Illinois ML

It has been a season to forget for the Nebraska Cornhuskers, who are 12-8 overall but hold merely a 2-7 record in Big Ten play. Nebraska is also riding a brutal six-game losing streak, which includes a home loss to USC, and two blowout losses to Purdue and Wisconsin.

In fact, the only three teams that Nebraska has faced that are still ranked in the top 25 of the AP Poll have all beaten the Cornhuskers by at least 28 points. That bodes well for the Fighting Illini on Thursday night.

Nebraska’s struggles were certainly to be expected after it lost Keisei Tominaga, CJ Wilcher, Jamarques Lawrence, and Josiah Allick. 

The Cornhuskers have also missed Rienk Mast for the entirety of the 2024-25 campaign due to a knee surgery he underwent last spring.

These losses have led to Nebraska ranking just 86th in adjusted offensive efficiency (KenPom), 118th in points per game, and 190th in 3P%.

Now, the Cornhuskers will have to take on the Fighting Illini, who have the 12th-best defense (adjD) in the country. Regardless of venue, this is not an ideal situation for Nebraska.

Rebounding is going to be another problem for the Cornhuskers, as Illinois is the second-best (total rebounding rate) rebounding team nationally. Nebraska, on the other hand, does not even rank in the top 100 in that statistic.

Without Mast, the Cornhuskers have had to rely on 6-foot-10 sophomore Berke Buyuktuncel and 6-foot-10 senior forward Andrew Morgan to fill in the gaps on the glass.

Unfortunately, it is incredibly challenging to see a world in which either Buyuktuncel or Morgan can slow down the elite, physical, and massive Illinois frontcourt.

I’ll take the Illinois moneyline.

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No. 19 Memphis @ Tulane

• Date: Thursday, January 30

• Time: 9:00 pm EST

PICK: Tulane +7.5

After an atrocious loss on the road to the Temple Owls, the Memphis Tigers have since won three consecutive AAC games, including a convincing 23-point home win over a tough UAB squad.

To the Tigers’ credit, they are a much more consistent team this season than they were last season, boasting a 16-4 record. And two of those losses came against top-ranked Auburn and now-No. 14 Mississippi State.

The other two losses, which include the road loss to Temple and a home loss to Arkansas State, were rough; however, the Tigers have positioned themselves well for an NCAA Tournament appearance once March rolls around due to some impressive non-conference wins.

Advanced metrics don’t love this Memphis team, though.

In fact, the Tigers rank 42nd in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margin and 46th in BartTorvik’s power rating despite sitting at 19th in the AP Poll.

The offensive end of the floor has primarily been the issue for Memphis.

The Tigers are 62nd in adjusted offensive efficiency, 58th in points per game, 56th in effective field goal percentage, 190th in free throw percentage, 176th in assists per game, and 339th in turnovers per game.

So, despite these struggles, can the Tigers beat Tulane on the road and cover the spread?

Beat? Sure. Cover a 7.5-point spread? I don’t see it.

The Green Wave had a brutal start to the 2024-25 regular season but have been winners of six of their past eight games with an average scoring margin of +12.

In this eight-game stretch, Tulane has shot roughly 50% from the field, 38% from 3-point land, and 78% from the free throw line. The Green Wave have also held opponents to an eye-popping 26.9% shooting from deep in that span.

Former Indiana forward Kaleb Banks, who is shooting 55% from the field over the past eight games, has been a huge reason for Tulane’s recent surge.

Rowan Brumbaugh (16 PPG on a 48/45/78 shooting split) and Kam Williams (11 PPG on a 55/52/82 shooting split) have also been playing out of their minds.

Tulane has enough firepower to keep this game close.

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