Best College Basketball Picks Today: Can LSU Ruin Auburn’s Undefeated Conference Record

Three of the top six teams in the country take the floor tomorrow in conference bouts that will be tough tests.

The fourth-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide have a road matchup against the 14th-ranked Mississippi State Bulldogs, a team that is desperate for a win if they want to stay in the SEC regular season title race.

Meanwhile, after a hard-fought two-point home win over Tennessee, the top-ranked Auburn Tigers will put their undefeated SEC record on the line against LSU in Baton Rouge.

Continue reading below to find our best college basketball picks today for these two huge matchups!

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No. 4 Alabama @ No. 14 Mississippi State

• Date: Wednesday, January 29

• Time: 9:00 pm EST

PICK: Mississippi State +1.5 (-120)

The marquee matchup for Wednesday night’s slate belongs to the No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide and No. 14 Mississippi State Bulldogs.

Simply put, the Crimson Tide have a gauntlet of brutal games coming up, starting in mid-February with the No. 1 Auburn Tigers.

After that, Bama will play No. 20 Missouri, No. 12 Kentucky, No. 14 Mississippi State (again), No. 8 Tennessee, No. 5 Florida, and No. 1 Auburn (again) to round out its conference regular season.

It should go without saying, but if the Crimson Tide want a chance at winning the SEC regular season title this season, they need to grab games like this even though they are on the road.

Despite their solid three-game winning streak since dropping a home bout to Ole Miss, the Crimson Tide will have an incredibly tough task on their hands in this one.

Mississippi State is tremendous on its home floor, boasting an 8-1 record and ranking 16th in effective field goal percentage, 10th in points per game, and ninth in unadjusted offensive efficiency. 

Kentucky is the only team to beat the Bulldogs at home and it took an incredible performance from the Wildcats’ offense, which shot 56% from the floor and 50% from 3-point land, to win by five points.

There’s also a bit of turbulence with Alabama, as head coach Nate Oats benched Mark Sears for the second half of the team’s home game against LSU. Sure, the Crimson Tide still won but this could decimate Sears’ confidence.

I’ll take the points.

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No. 1 Auburn @ LSU

• Date: Wednesday, January 29

• Time: 7:00 pm EST

PICK: LSU +13.5 (-110)

The top-ranked Auburn Tigers are fresh off one of their most challenging games of the season, as they narrowly held off No. 6 Tennessee by two points at home. 

Both teams played exceptional defense. The point total was a measly 104 points, which was by far the lowest of the season for any game that Auburn has played.

It was a grueling, physical, and emotionally taxing game, and while the Tigers emerged victorious, they will have a short turnaround between the Tennessee bout and this matchup with LSU.

Despite inevitably being exhausted physically, mentally, and emotionally, the Tigers have not dominated SEC opponents on the road so far this season.

In fact, Auburn has only beaten its three road conference opponents by a combined 10 points. And those opponents are not exactly the cream of the crop in the SEC, as Georgia, South Carolina, and Texas all sit outside of the AP Poll’s Top 25.

Further, as of today, they are all outside the top 39 in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margin metric.

Opponents that are playing Auburn on their own floor are averaging nearly 14 more points per game on an effective field goal percentage that is 12% higher than when the Tigers are hosting teams.

Offensively, the Tigers don’t have a huge drop-off when they play on the road; however, that is to be expected from a team that is on pace to have one of the highest adjusted efficiency margin ratings (KenPom) ever recorded.

As the top team in the country, Auburn will be hunted nightly, especially on the road, where a win could be an SEC opponent’s season highlight. 

This will again be the case on Wednesday in Baton Rouge, when the LSU Tigers host Auburn.

Do they have a shot at knocking off Auburn?

While I don’t think LSU will be the one to unseat Auburn from its undefeated conference season, it should be able to keep this one relatively close.

Sure, the Tigers (LSU) are only 1-5 in conference play; however, their first game, which was a home loss to a now-ranked (and surging) Vanderbilt looks much better than it seemed initially.

Further, the Tigers locked in a home win against Arkansas recently and played the fourth-ranked Crimson Tide to seven points on the road in their last outing.

Offense is an issue, and has been all season, but LSU has strung together a 10-1 record at home and plays substantially better there, shooting 50% from the floor and 34% from behind the arc, and boasting the 25th-highest average scoring margin.

Turnovers and 3-point shooting have been weaknesses this season, but LSU has managed to get those problems under control at home behind tremendous play from Cam Carter and Jordan Sears.

I’m taking the 13.5 points.

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