Best College Basketball Picks Today: Tennessee Seeks Redemption Against Mississippi State

An SEC showdown between two ranked teams and a Big 12 battle that features the third-ranked team in the nation? That sounds like a great night of college basketball.

And it will be.

On Tuesday night, the No. 14 Mississippi State Bulldogs travel to Knoxville to take on the No. 6 Tennessee Volunteers, while No. 3 Iowa State will host the UCF Knights.

Keep reading below to find our best college basketball picks today for the Mississippi State vs. Tennessee and UCF vs. Iowa State games!

The odds for today's college basketball games are from FanDuel Sportsbook. Place a $5 bet at FanDuel and Get $300 in Bonus Bets If Your Bet Wins.

No. 14 Mississippi State @ No. 6 Tennessee

• Date: Tuesday, January 21

• Time: 7:00 pm EST

• Moneyline: Mississippi State +250 | Tennessee -315

• Spread: Mississippi State +7.5 (-115) | Tennessee -7.5 (-105)

• Total: Over 139.5 (-112) | Under 139.5 (-108)

All odds are available via FanDuel Sportsbook but are subject to change.

PICK: Tennessee -7.5 (-105) at FanDuel

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After a smooth start to the 2024-25 season, the Vols have had a “rocky” (pun intended) stretch of basketball over the past two weeks, dropping two of their four games in that span.

One loss was understandable, as the Vols were on the road against now-fifth-ranked Florida; however, the amount that they lost by (30 points) was concerning. 

Their other loss also came on the road, but was against an unranked Vanderbilt team.

To be fair, the SEC appears to be the best conference in the country this season, and the Commodores have had a strong 15-3 (3-2 in the SEC) start to their campaign.

Can Tennessee get back on track at home against the Mississippi State Bulldogs, a team that has overachieved so far this year after not being ranked in the preseason AP Poll?

I like the Vols to tally another victory in the win column on Tuesday night.

At home, Tennessee has been ridiculously impressive, winning all 10 of its games in Knoxville and boasting the fifth-highest average scoring margin (+27.8).

Opponents are struggling to find any semblance of success against this stout and physical Tennessee defense that ranks fourth in adjusted defensive efficiency.

In fact, the Vols’ opponents are scoring the third-fewest points per game (55.4) on the 12th-lowest effective field goal percentage nationally.

Further, they are forcing opponents to commit 15 turnovers per game, an impressive number given their slow pace of play (332nd in adjusted tempo, per KenPom).

There is also a glaring matchup issue for the Bulldogs, as Zakai Zeigler, arguably the best point of attack defender in college basketball, will be hounding their leading scorer, Josh Hubbard.

Teams that have success against Tennessee can utilize their frontcourt and score inside the arc. After all, the Vols are first nationally in opponent 3-point percentage, so perimeter scoring is hard to come by.

Unfortunately, the Bulldogs have a really low two-point rate, meaning they rely heavily on 3-point shooting. That won’t bode well for them against this lightning-quick and uber-physical Tennessee perimeter defense.

UCF @ No. 3 Iowa State

• Date: Tuesday, January 21

• Time: 8:00 pm EST

• Moneyline: UCF +1000 | Iowa State -2100

• Spread: UCF +15.5 (-102) | Iowa State -15.5 (-120)

• Total: Over 151.5 (-112) | Under 151.5 (-108)

All odds are available via FanDuel Sportsbook but are subject to change.

PICK: Iowa State -15.5 (-120) at FanDuel

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It has been an up-and-down season for the UCF Knights, with the low point being a 51-point home loss to the Kansas Jayhawks and the high point being a win over now-No. 13 Texas A&M.

However, the Knights almost had an unbelievable boost to their NCAA Tournament resume a few days ago when they hosted the seventh-ranked Houston Cougars. 

Sadly, the Cougars were able to score the go-ahead bucket with roughly one second left in the game.

Now, UCF will be tasked with going on the road after a devastating home loss to battle the third-ranked Iowa State Cyclones, who are fresh off a tough road loss to West Virginia.

Can the Knights keep this game close?

Given the fact that the Cyclones are in a perfect bounce-back spot at home, it doesn’t seem likely.

Iowa State has been one of the best teams on its home floor since the beginning of last season. 

In fact, the Cyclones have a 20-8 record against the spread at home in that span due to their stifling defense and hyper efficient offensive attack.

Look at some of the Cyclones’ recent conference outings at home: they destroyed Kansas by 17 and Baylor by 19, holding both teams to under 60 points. 

Iowa State also crushed Utah, who is just three spots lower than UCF in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margin list, by 23 points two weeks ago.

Unsurprisingly, Iowa State’s opponents shoot an eye-popping (not in a good way) 37% from the field and 28% from 3-point land when they play the Cyclones at Hilton Coliseum.

I’ll roll with the Cyclones against the porous UCF defense.