There will be 18 ranked teams playing in conference matchups on Saturday!
For this slate, we will be honing in on two matchups in particular: USC vs. No. 13 Illinois and No. 5 Alabama vs. No. 10 Texas A&M.
What can we expect from these two games?
Find out what our best college basketball picks are for today’s slate!
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Date: Saturday, January 11
Time: 12:00 pm EST
Moneyline: USC +800 | Illinois -1400
Spread: USC +14.5 (-114) | Illinois -14.5 (-106)
Total: Over 153.5 (-110) | Under 153.5 (-110)
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After a near-40-point Big Ten win over the Penn State Nittany Lions on Wednesday, despite being without starting point guard and Big Ten Player of the Year candidate Kasparas Jakucionis, Illinois appears to be a true national contender.
The Fighting Illini have climbed to eighth in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margin metric, sixth in the NET, and 13th in the AP Poll behind recent wins over then-ninth-ranked Oregon (on the road), Washington, and Penn State.
At the beginning of the year, it appeared that the Illinois backcourt might not play up to its preseason expectations.
However, that is certainly no longer the case, with Jakucionis posting just shy of 17 points, six assists, and six rebounds per game on an outrageous 50/41/88 shooting split.
Further, Kylan Boswell, while relatively inefficient in shooting from the field, has impacted the game on the glass and by playmaking for others.
Then, there’s the Fighting Illini’s frontcourt, which features Tomislav Ivisic, Will Riley, Ben Humrichous, and Tre White. Without a doubt, they have one of the top units in the Big Ten, as well as in the country.
Illinois has been dominant on its home floor, winning eight of its nine games. The sole loss at home for the Fighting Illini was against the then-top-ranked Tennessee Volunteers by two points, which is understandable, especially since they hadn’t quite hit their stride yet.
But now, the Fighting Illini will host a struggling USC team that ranks 101st in adjusted offensive efficiency.
Do the Trojans have a chance at keeping this game within 15 points?
Whether or not they can keep this game respectable will all be on the shoulders of leading scorer Desmond Claude, who loves to get his feet in the paint and use his size, strength, and craftiness to score over and around opponents.
Here’s the problem: Illinois has a terrific interior defense.
The Fighting Illini rank sixth in opponent two-point percentage (second on their home floor) and while they don’t block a ton of shots, they have the size, physicality, and length to bother Claude.
And if the Trojans can’t get a substantial offensive output from Claude, then they need to knock down a ton of 3s. Unfortunately, they are shooting just 28.2% from behind the arc on the road this season.
Further, there is a massive disparity in the rebounding abilities of these two teams, which will result in plenty of second-chance opportunities for Illinois and virtually none for USC.
I’ll roll with the Fighting Illini, even though 14.5 points is a lot to lay in a conference game.
Date: Saturday, January 11
Time: 8:00 pm EST
Moneyline: Alabama -170 | Texas A&M +140
Spread: Alabama -3.5 (-110) | Texas A&M +3.5 (-110)
Total: Over 160.5 (-110) | Under 160.5 (-110)
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Arguably the most high profile game of the day will be between the fifth-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide and the tenth-ranked Texas A&M Aggies.
Unsurprisingly, the Crimson Tide are one of the fastest and most efficient teams in the country, ranking third in adjusted tempo and adjusted offensive efficiency.
While they aren’t quite the offensive juggernaut that they were last season, particularly from the 3-point line, this Alabama team can still put up a ton of points, creating transition opportunities where it seems like there aren’t any.
Further, the Crimson Tide have taken a huge step in the right direction on the defensive end of the floor, leaping to 39th in adjusted defensive efficiency, an impressive ranking considering their pace of play and strength of schedule.
The addition of rim-protecting big, Cliff Omoruyi, in the transfer portal certainly played a significant factor in this improvement.
Meanwhile, the Aggies have strung together nine consecutive wins and jumped to No. 10 in the AP Poll entering this SEC showdown.
Texas A&M is an obnoxiously talented offensive rebounding team, ranking first nationally in offensive rebounding percentage.
In fact, the Aggies pull down an eye-popping 46.4% of their misses on the offensive end at home.
And, defensively, they hold opponents to the eighth-lowest effective field goal percentage on their home floor.
Sensational.
Simply put, there is no way that we can fade such a talented team that is getting points at home in SEC play.
I’ll take the points with A&M.
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