Even though football is winding down, which can be a depressing time for sports fans, college basketball is still here for the next several months!
And it’s a great time to dive head first into this college basketball season: conference play just started.
Wednesday night’s slate has two matchups that I have analyzed: Arizona State vs. No. 11 Kansas and USC vs. Indiana.
Keep reading below to see my breakdown and best college basketball picks today for these games!
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Date: Wednesday, January 8
Time: 9:00 pm EST
Moneyline: Arizona State +810 | Kansas -1450
Spread: Arizona State +13.5 (-102) | Kansas -13.5 (-120)
Total: Over 144.5 (-110) | Under 144.5 (-110)
All odds are available via FanDuel Sportsbook but are subject to change.
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Perhaps, the Jayhawks’ home loss to West Virginia was a wake-up call: individual talent does not always result in wins, especially at the collegiate level.
Kansas has had an up and down season thus far, securing solid wins against North Carolina, Michigan State, and Duke but losing to West Virginia, Creighton, and Missouri.
What’s promising for the Jayhawks was their response in the game against UCF, which followed the West Virginia debacle; they beat the Knights by 51 points (not a typo), holding them to 21% shooting from the field and 23% shooting from behind the arc.
In fact, Kansas has the lowest opponent effective field goal percentage over its past three games of any team in college basketball.
And two of those three teams rank inside the top 65 of KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margin metric, so it’s not a situation where Kansas’s strength of schedule was exceptionally low during that stretch.
Now, the Jayhawks return to Allen Fieldhouse for the first time since their embarrassing home loss versus the Mountaineers with a chance at redemption against Arizona State.
With the way the Jayhawks’ defense has performed recently, they would be in tremendous shape to keep any team at bay; however, they are fortunate enough to be hosting the 91st-ranked offense in the country.
I expect Kansas to carry its momentum from the UCF game into this one. Expect a beatdown.
Date: Wednesday, January 8
Time: 7:00 pm EST
Moneyline: USC +230 | Indiana -285
Spread: USC +6.5 (-102) | Indiana -6.5 (-120)
Total: Over 150.5 (-106) | Under 150.5 (-114)
All odds are available via FanDuel Sportsbook but are subject to change.
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Early in Indiana’s last game against Penn State, the Hoosiers’ star power forward, Malik Reneau, went down with a knee injury.
While Reneau is expected to return to the floor at some point this season for the Hoosiers, he will not be available for this home matchup against USC.
Without Reneau, the Hoosiers still managed to find a way to log their first Quad 1 win of the season, coming by way of a road victory against the Nittany Lions (38th in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margin).
However, their recent (improved) play shouldn’t be too much of a surprise, considering they were a ranked team in the preseason.
The main difference for this Hoosiers team has been the utilization of one-big lineups, which is what they were forced to use during the entirety of the Penn State game.
Playing just one big man (in this case, Oumar Ballo) at a time gives Indiana the spacing required to execute its half-court sets and not become too reliant on passing into the post and then standing around and watching.
Besides the improvement in the lineups and rotations, Indiana also looks to be a more inspired team than they were at the beginning of the season. In fact, Ballo is fresh off a 25-point, 13-rebound outing while sophomore forward Mackenzie Mgbako posted a 20-point game.
Where has that been?
Further, the Hoosiers have been much more solid defensively, holding their past three opponents to the 19th-lowest 3-point percentage (23.1%) in the country.
Since its horrendous 1-for-20 shooting performance from 3-point land against Winthrop, IU has shot 42% from deep. Better spacing and more well-constructed lineups have played a huge factor in the Hoosiers’ shooting in that stretch.
I don’t expect this USC team to keep the game close; it should be a double-digit win for the Hoosiers on Wednesday night.
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