Best College Basketball Bets Today: NCAAB Picks for January 4

The first Saturday of the New Year has arrived and with it comes a massive conference slate, including two marquee SEC matchups.

On Saturday, the No. 12 Oklahoma Sooners will take on the No. 5 Alabama Crimson Tide while the No. 6 Florida Gators will look for a huge road win against the No. 10 Kentucky Wildcats.

Continue reading below for our best college basketball picks and analysis for these two Saturday games!

No. 12 Oklahoma @ No. 5 Alabama

• Date: Saturday, January 4

• Time: 6:00 pm EST

• Moneyline: Oklahoma +580 | Alabama -880

• Spread: Oklahoma +12.5 (-110) | Alabama -12.5 (-110)

• Total: Over 166.5 (-110) | Under 166.5 (-110)

All odds are available via FanDuel Sportsbook but are subject to change.

PICK: Alabama -12.5 (-110)

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This line seems crazy, right? How can a 12th-ranked team be a near-13-point dog to anyone, regardless of the venue?

Well, it could be partially due to the fact that the 13-0 Oklahoma Sooners are a bit overrated.

In fact, Oklahoma is the No. 12 team in the country but ranks 40th in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margin metric. You won’t see that disparity happen often.

The Sooners have played an incredibly easy schedule. In fact, their strength of schedule rating sits at 346th nationally thus far in the season.

Conversely, the Crimson Tide have already been put through the gauntlet, boasting the 11th-highest strength of schedule rating; they have wins over Creighton, North Carolina, Houston, and Illinois.

Alabama has been able to race out to a hot start despite shooting at a 31.7% clip from 3-point land, which is a rate that places them 250th nationally. Yikes.

Still, the Crimson Tide have had enough offensive firepower with Mark Sears, Grant Nelson, and Labaron Philon to rank fourth in adjusted offensive efficiency.

And while the Sooners have been terrific in defending the 3-point line, they have struggled mightily in contesting opponents inside the arc, allowing them to shoot just shy of 54%.

Considering the weakness of their schedule, one might think that the Sooners would be one of the top teams in the nation in that category, but instead, they rank just 259th in opponent 2-point percentage.

The problem with this matchup will be in the paint. Oklahoma has no rim protection whatsoever (328th in block percentage), which is a death sentence against one of the best interior scoring teams nationally.

Then, there’s the matter of the Crimson Tide’s elite perimeter defense, which has held opponents to 25% shooting from deep at home, which ranks just outside the top ten among major programs.

Oklahoma has been able to shoot the lights out against bad teams, but this Sooners offense is in for a rude awakening when it can’t get clean looks on the perimeter and has to challenge a rim protector like Cliff Omoruyi all game long. 

I’ll lay the points with ‘Bama at home. 

No. 6 Florida @ No. 10 Kentucky

• Date: Saturday, January 4

• Time: 11:00 am EST

• Moneyline: Florida +130 | Kentucky -156

• Spread: Florida +2.5 (-102) | Kentucky -2.5 (-120)

• Total: Over 165.5 (-115) | Under 165.5 (-105)

All odds are available via FanDuel Sportsbook but are subject to change.

PICK: Kentucky ML (-156)

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Before we dive into this pick, let’s give credit where it is due. 

Florida has been tremendous to begin the season and looks the part of a legitimate contender on not just a conference level but a national level, as well.
The Gators have jumped out to a 13-0 start and sit at sixth in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margin due to their balanced, efficient, and high-octane attack.

Florida is just one of five teams that rank in the top 16 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies.

However, the Gators are yet another team that has played a mediocre non-conference schedule. Their only substantial win came against North Carolina, a team that has started with an 8-6 record and dropped to 35th in KenPom’s adjEM metric.

So, Florida will have its first true test on the road against a Kentucky Wildcats squad that has looked like the Avengers on their home floor.

Currently, Kentucky is averaging the most points per game (95.4) at home (minimum of two home games played) in the country.

The Wildcats also have the 11th-highest effective field goal percentage (among major programs) at Rupp Arena.

Between their red-hot shooting in front of the home crowd and their overall ball protection (seventh in turnovers per game), it will be challenging for this Gators team to keep up.

In fact, two of the major advantages that Florida has in almost every game are pace (81st in adjusted tempo) and offensive rebounding (second in OREB%).

However, this Kentucky team is even faster (43rd in adjusted tempo) and rebounds just shy of 79% of its misses at home.

Between 6-foot-11 forward Andrew Carr and 7-foot center Amari Williams, the Cats have enough size to match Florida’s physicality on the glass.

I like for Kentucky to get a win at home here.

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