Six ranked teams take the floor on Tuesday night, with two of those teams facing off against one another.
The 20th-ranked Wisconsin Badgers will take on the 19th-ranked Illinois Fighting Illini in a monstrous Big Ten matchup.
Both teams will be trying to log their first win in conference play after dropping their Big Ten opener.
Additionally, the No. 15 Houston Cougars will host Troy to try and climb back up the AP Poll after dropping a few early-season games.
What are our best college basketball picks for the slate on December 10, 2024?
Keep reading below for our best bets!
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Date: Tuesday, December 10
Time: 8:00 pm EST
Moneyline: Troy +4000 | Houston -20000
Spread: Troy +26.5 (-110) | Houston -26.5 (-110)
Total: Over 133.5 (-110) | Under 133.5 (-110)
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Houston sits at 15th in the AP Poll after it dropped two of its past four games to San Diego State and Alabama.
However, the Cougars still sit in first in BartTorvik’s BARTHAG metric, which is a power rating for the likelihood of beating an average D1 team.
They are also still fifth in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margin despite this rough, uncharacteristic start.
And, to be fair, KenPom has pegged Houston as the seventh-most unlucky team in the country, per his Luck Rating.
Still, the Cougs are, and have been, one of the most dominant teams at home.
Dating back to the beginning of the 2023-24 regular season, they boast a 14-5-2 record against the spread on their home floor.
So far this season, Houston has the 24th-highest offensive rebounding percentage and third-highest 3-point percentage, and it records the 21st-fewest turnovers per game at home.
Further, the Cougars hold opponents to the sixth-lowest effective field goal percentage nationally at the Fertitta Center.
For this game, the Troy Trojans are going to be in for a world of pain.
Troy ranks 281st in defensive rebounds per game and has allowed its past three opponents to shoot 41.3% from 3-point land. The Trojans also turn the ball over the eighth-most of any team in the nation.
That is not a recipe for keeping this game even remotely competitive. I’ll back Houston and would even consider “alt spreading” the Cougs to get a bit more value.
Date: Tuesday, December 10
Time: 9:00 pm EST
Moneyline: Wisconsin +225 | Illinois -280
Spread: Wisconsin +6.5 (-106) | Illinois -6.5 (-114)
Total: Over 153.5 (-114) | Under 153.5 (-106)
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Like Houston, the Fighting Illini have suffered multiple losses to begin the season.
However, Illinois’s losses have come against a Final Four-caliber Alabama team in Tuscaloosa and on the road against Northwestern, a tough place to win regardless of the team’s talent in any given season.
The Fighting Illini have been tremendous at home, though, covering in four of their first five games and holding opponents to the lowest effective field goal percentage in the country.
Talk about impressive.
Illinois has a few major advantages in this game.
The first has been its shooting defense at home, which was mentioned above.
Additionally, the Fighting Illini defend without fouling (39th in fouls per game), which will be vital against a Wisconsin team that is elite at free-throw shooting (first in FT%).
The last key disparity between these two teams is on the glass: the Illini (fourth in total rebounding rate) are one of the best rebounding teams nationally and will absolutely crush Wisconsin in that department.
If Illinois can keep the Badgers off the charity stripe, outrebound them on the glass, and contest their shots at a high level, this game shouldn’t be all that close, especially since this Wisconsin team is not that connected on the defensive end of the floor (87th in adjusted defensive efficiency).
Let’s roll with the Illini at -6.5!
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