Everything slows down on Thursday after an action-packed Wednesday slate in which 15 of the Top 25 teams took the floor.
Still, there is an enthralling Big Ten opener for No. 8 Purdue and Penn State and a mid-major showdown between Saint Louis and San Francisco.
Keep reading for our best college basketball picks for the December 5th slate!
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Date: Thursday, December 5
Time: 6:30 pm EST
Moneyline: Purdue +105 | Penn State -126
Spread: Purdue +1.5 (-106) | Penn State -1.5 (-114)
Total: Over 149.5 (-110) | Under 149.5 (-110)
All odds are available via FanDuel Sportsbook but are subject to change.
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Who would have thought the Purdue Boilermakers would still be a Big Ten conference contender after losing two-time Wooden Award winner Zach Edey?
In Edey’s absence, the Boilers have had several players step into more prominent roles, including point guard Braden Smith, two-guard Fletcher Loyer, and forward/center Trey Kaufman-Renn.
Smith is averaging a near-double-double with 12.8 points, 9.1 assists, and 5.1 rebounds per game. From an efficiency standpoint, Smith could certainly improve, as he is shooting sub-40% from the floor, but he’s still a considerable asset offensively.
Kaufman-Renn has been the biggest surprise for the Boilers thus far, posting 19.1 points and 7.1 rebounds per game on better than 60% shooting from the field.
Altogether, this Boilers team still has enough weapons to be dangerous on both a conference and national level, as evidenced by their huge home win against a tough Alabama team.
But, besides being without Edey, there is another massive difference between last season’s team and this one: defense.
According to KenPom, the Boilers rank just 52nd in adjusted defensive efficiency, allowing opponents to shoot roughly 42% from the floor.
While their defensive statistics, such as opponent 3P%, are pretty good, the eye test shows they are giving up too many open 3-point looks. If you have any questions, just go back and watch the Alabama game.
In fact, Ole Miss just made 42% of its 3s against Purdue, narrowly losing to the now-eighth-ranked Boilers.
Unfortunately for Purdue, the Nittany Lions have shot 38.1% from 3-point land this season and are averaging the second-most points per game of any team in the country.
Penn State plays fast and rebounds the ball well, which is not an ideal combination for Purdue, one of the slowest teams nationally.
Winning road games in the Big Ten is challenging, especially against a formidable team like the Nittany Lions. I’ll back them in this spot.
Date: Thursday, December 5
Time: 10:00 pm EST
Moneyline: Saint Louis +340 | San Francisco -450
Spread: Saint Louis +9.5 (-115) | San Francisco -9.5 (-105)
Total: Over 150.5 (-110) | Under 150.5 (-110)
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So far, the Josh Schertz era in Saint Louis has not been all blue skies and rainbows. The Billikens boast a 5-2 record, with losses to Wichita State and Santa Clara and no notable wins.
Much like Schertz’s Sycamores last season, Saint Louis loves to take 3s, averaging the 45th-most 3-point attempts in the country. And that average will probably climb as the season continues.
The Billikens rank 102nd in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric, which is solid considering their weak strength of schedule thus far.
In fact, they have the 39th-highest effective field goal percentage nationally this season and the 13th-highest over their past three games.
The only problem is that the San Francisco Dons are better on both ends of the floor and will be on their home floor in this one.
Despite losing all-around star forward Jonathan Mogbo to the NBA, the Dons are as good as last season.
Their two losses so far this season are to NCAA Tournament-quality teams, Clemson and Memphis.
The Dons rank 61st in adjusted efficiency margin (KenPom) and have been shooting the lights out recently, knocking down just shy of 41% of their 3s in the past three outings.
The problem for Saint Louis is that it can’t defend the 3-point line.
The Billikens allowed their past three opponents to hit 40% of their 3s. Those three teams? Quinnipiac, UMass Lowell, and Jackson State.
Quinnipiac is the eighth-worst 3-point shooting team in the country, while UMass is the 11th-worst, and Jackson State ranks 286th in 3-point percentage.
It should go without saying, but that is a significant problem.
This game has blowout potential written all over it.
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