Three teams ranked in the top 10 of the A.P. Poll play on Monday, November 18, including the No. 4 Gonzaga Bulldogs, No. 5 Auburn Tigers, and No. 7 Iowa State Cyclones.
While none of the top-ranked teams face one another on Monday night, they will still give us another look at some of the best squads in college basketball this season.
Below, we break down our best college basketball picks today, including spread plays for North Alabama vs. No. 5 Auburn and No. 4 Gonzaga vs. San Diego State.
Check out our analysis, each game’s odds, and the game times!
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Date: Monday, November 18
Time: 9:00 pm EST
Moneyline: Northern Alabama +4000 | Auburn -30000
Spread: Northern Alabama +27.5 (-110) | Auburn -27.5 (-110)
Total: Over 153.5 (-110) | Under 153.5 (-110)
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If a gritty, six-point win against the Houston Cougars wasn’t enough to convince you that this Auburn Tigers team could be as good, if not better, than last year’s squad, it is impossible to say what will.
Despite the turbulence with the team, which included an on-flight fight between a few players while en route to Texas for the game against Houston, the Tigers still managed to pull off an impressive win.
While the game was technically played on a neutral court, the location was still in Houston (Toyota Center), serving as a near-home-court environment for the Cougs.
Auburn did a fantastic job in forcing Houston’s players to score individually instead of off of passes/assists and ball movement.
In fact, the Cougars only finished with seven assists as a team, a really brutal number for the fourth-ranked offense (per KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric).
The Tigers also poured in 74 points on 52.9% shooting from the field and matched Houston on the glass, with each team pulling down 33 rebounds.
Then, Auburn followed up that performance with a solid 23-point home win against Kent State, which could be the best team in the MAC this season. So much for a letdown game!
Since the beginning of last season, Auburn has an 11-6-1 home record against the spread, so this team has historically taken care of business on its floor.
Can the Tigers continue that strong home-court play against North Alabama?
Yes, they should be able to win and cover with relative ease.
A big reason for that is due to Northern Alabama’s reliance on Jacari Lane (22.8 PPG, 4.2 APG, 3.0 SPG on 49/45/83 shooting split) for offense. The Tigers can hone in on Lane and throw double-teams and different looks at him to force the ball out of his hands.
My confidence in anyone else stepping up in a substantial way is somewhat nonexistent.
Further, Auburn’s 3-point defense has been exceptional at home, holding opponents to 22.7% shooting from deep.
This Lions defense is also suspect, ranking 219th in adjusted defensive efficiency, 276th in opponent 3P%, and 183rd in opponent points per game.
That’s not a great sign for a team that has faced mediocre teams like Air Force, Samford, and UT Martin, as they will now be tasked to contain the second-ranked offense nationally on their own floor.
Any Auburn line at -28.5 or better is worth the play to me.
Date: Monday, November 18
Time: 10:00 pm EST
Moneyline: Gonzaga -690 | San Diego State +480
Spread: Gonzaga -11.5 (-105) | San Diego State +11.5 (-115)
Total: Over 151.5 (-115) | Under 151.5 (-105)
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As always, you can count on the San Diego State Aztecs to have one of the best defenses in the country.
Thus far in the 2024-25 season, San Diego State has the 16th-best adjusted defensive efficiency rating, according to KenPom, and the 13th-best “ADJDE” rating, per BartTorvik.
But I’m not completely sold yet.
The Aztecs allowed UC San Diego (136th in KenPom’s adjEM) to shoot 38.5% (they currently rank 304th in opponent 3P%) from behind the arc in their first (and only) D1 game so far this year.
In that game, San Diego State only squeezed out a five-point home win against the Tritons, so, like I said, I’m not sold.
Conversely, Gonzaga has handled business and holds the top offense (adjO) in the country, ahead of other high-octane powerhouses, like Alabama, Purdue, and UConn.
The Bulldogs score the second-most points per game, rank 11th in effective field goal percentage, and outscore opponents by the fifth-most points thus far, despite already playing now-12th-ranked Baylor and a formidable Arizona State team.
San Diego State wants to slow this game down. The problem is that the Aztecs’ offense isn’t very effective (112th in adjO), resulting in a ton of missed shots (144th in eFG%) and turnovers (251st in turnovers).
Defensive rebounds off missed shots and steals will allow the ‘Zags to get out in transition and wreak havoc on a San Diego State defense that wants to keep opponents in the half-court and play at a snail’s pace (274th in adjusted tempo).
Stylistically, this matchup favors the Bulldogs for several reasons. Look for another dominant performance from Gonzaga in this home game.
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