AAC Tournament Predictions, Odds & Favorites: Memphis Favored to Win the Tournament

• Memphis ended the regular season on a five-game winning streak, securing the team’s first American Athletic Conference regular season championship.

• North Texas saw its seven-game win streak come to an end with a surprising 66-61 loss to Temple in the regular season finale.

• UAB had a shot at the regular season title late in the season but went 1-2 in their final three games, including a loss to Memphis, which brought that dream to an end really quickly.

Congratulations to the Memphis Tigers on winning the regular season title in the American Athletic Conference, the school’s first. However, while it is a noteworthy accomplishment, it’s not the win that matters the most in college basketball— a conference tournament title.

To get an automatic bid to the Big Dance, the Tigers will need to win the American Athletic Conference Tournament (which gets underway with the first round on Wednesday, March 12. But  Memphis will not play until the quarterfinals on Friday.

They’ll just need two wins to make the title game, but regular-season champions do not have the best history in the American Athletic Conference. Houston is the only regular season winner in the last four seasons also to win the conference tournament.

The Tigers are the betting favorite, and they have won it before (2023). 

AAC Tournament Betting Odds

Find the latest odds for the AAC Tournament in the table below, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Bet on your favorites at FanDuel and claim the following bonus: Bet $5, Get $250 in Bonus Bets if Your Bet Wins.

Tulane, Florida Atlantic, Memphis, North Texas, and UAB all have a shot at winning the AAC regular season title this year and being named the No. 1 seed in the AAC Tournament. Of course, for some to win, it will take more than just beating their remaining opponents to win the title.

Memphis is the only team in complete control of its fate. If they win out, they win the title and will be the No. 1 seed in the tournament. But if they do not, then it comes down to the tiebreakers:

• Head-to-Head record

• Each team’s record relative to the teams next highest in the standings (Team X). If the two teams in question played Team X the same number of times, the best record wins. But if they did not, it depends on whether they could have an identical record had both teams played Team X the same number of games.

For example, if Team A played Team X once and lost while Team B played them twice and won both, Team B wins. However, if Team A played Team X twice and went 1-1, and Team B played them once and lost, an advantage cannot be determined, and the next team in the standings is used.

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Favorites to Win the 2025 AAC Tournament

Sportsbooks have five teams listed with odds of winning the AAC: Memphis, UAB, North Texas, Tulane, and Florida Atlantic. Let’s take a look at all five:

Memphis

• Record: 22-5, 12-2

• NET Ranking: No. 47

For the Tigers, it really is as simple as beating UAB on Mar. 2, and then they’ll win the regular season conference title outright and be the No. 1 seed in the AAC Tournament. But if they were to lose that game (or another one), the tiebreakers would decide who would be the No. 1 seed.

If they lose to UAB but win their remaining three, they will win the tiebreaker with the Blazers (East Carolina) and the head-to-head with North Texas.

UAB

• Record: 18-9, 11-3

• NET Ranking: 111

To have any shot at winning the conference and being named the No. 1 seed, UAB must beat Memphis and hope the Tigers lose to UTSA or South Florida (assuming Memphis beat Rice on Wednesday, Feb. 26). The Tigers have already beaten South Florida once, 80-65 on Feb. 13.

But they have yet to face UTSA (10-17, 4-11).

North Texas

• Record: 20-6, 11-3

• NET Ranking: No. 59

Since they have lost to Memphis, they need UAB to beat Memphis and for the Tigers to drop another game since Memphis owns the tiebreaker advantage over North Texas. But should it come down to them and UAB, the Mean Green have the tiebreaker advantage (no advantage vs. Memphis, Tulane, and Florida Atlantic, but UAB’s loss to East Carolina would give North Texas the advantage).

Tulane

• Record: 15-12, 9-5

• NET Ranking: No. 160

Mathematically, they are not eliminated yet. So, in theory, they still have a shot. But since they’d lose every tiebreaker, they would need Memphis to go 0-4 and North Texas and UAB to go 2-2 for them to win the conference.

Florida Atlantic

• Record: 15-12, 8-6

• NET Ranking: No. 106

I don’t see a scenario where Florida Atlantic can win the conference or tiebreakers.

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AAC Tournament: Picks and Underdogs

Favorite - Memphis

This is not an advisable bet by any stretch of the imagination, but it doesn’t look like anyone poses a real threat to them. UAB is the one team with a legitimate chance of overtaking the Tigers. However, Memphis crushed UAB a couple of weeks ago, 100-77. 

Will a change of venue make that much of a difference? I doubt it.

Dark Horse - UAB

With a game still to come against Memphis, they have a shot. But they will have to win the game and get some help since Memphis has the tiebreaker advantage.

Long Shot - North Texas

They own the tiebreaker advantage vs. UAB. So, if the Blazers can do them a solid and beat Memphis and someone else also takes down the Tigers,  they could win the conference and be the No. 1 seed. It’s a slim shot, but it’s there.

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AAC Tournament History

The AAC counts 1979 as the year it was founded, but that was actually when the Big East Conference was founded, which the American Athletic Conference splintered off from in 2013 when the conference was experiencing substantial turmoil.

So, while the AAC was officially founded in 1979, the conference as we know it began play with the 2013-14 season—which means there is not much history to reference regarding which teams are typically the contenders and who the bottom feeders might be.

The following table contains the winners of the regular season and conference tournament since the 2013-14 season:

How to Choose the Best Sportsbook for Betting on the AAC Tournament 

We have gone over the odds, several of the top teams in the conference, and how to read the odds. So, is it time to bet? Not yet. First, you need to choose which sportsbook you want to place your bet with.

You can look into each one when you have time, or you can just check out our full sportsbook reviews. The following table will give you a brief review of what three of the more popular online sportsbooks have to offer:

How to Read AAC Tournament Odds

Are you ready to bet on a team to win the AAC this season? If so, you’ll be able to find odds on who will win the AAC at all major sportsbooks operating in the U.S. You may have heard members of the media referencing odds like “25 to 1” or “4/1 or 7/3” and maybe even in decimal form (i.e., 1.91).

There are different ways in which odds can be stated. Sportsbooks in the U.S. list them in what is referred to as the ‘American’ format. American odds will use three-digit numbers with either a plus or minus sign in front. The + sign designates that team as the underdog, while the – sign is for the favorite.

Let’s go over a couple of examples. The odds Memphis will win the AAC are currently -1500. That means a couple of things: (1) Memphis is the betting favorite and has a better than 50% chance of winning and (2) bettors will have to risk $1500 in order to win $100.

Rather than bet on the current favorite, let’s say you want to roll with UAB to win this season at +1300. At those odds, UAB is considered a long shot and has a 7.14.0% chance of winning the conference. However, if you were to bet $100 and they win, you’d collect an $1400 payout, your stake ($100) and $1300 in winnings

You don’t have to bet $100, of course. To see what your payout would be with any stake and odds, check out our odds calculator.