UNLV vs. Boise State Picks, Predictions and Odds: The Stakes Are High in the MWC Championship

• Boise State and UNLV are the highest-rated G5 teams in the college football playoff rankings

• UNLV lost to Boise State 29-24 earlier in the year in week nine

• The Rebels offense ranks above league average in Rush Success Rate, PPA, and Explosiveness

It’s win and you’re in for the Boise State Broncos and UNLV Rebels as both teams are currently the highest-rated G5 teams and would secure a berth to the college football playoff as the highest-rated G5 conference champion. Boise State beat UNLV 29-24 earlier in the year, yet the Rebels have revenge on their mind and advantages on both sides of the field to generate the upset.

UNLV vs. Boise State Odds

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UNLV vs. Boise State My Pick

• My Pick: UNLV Spread +4 (-110) at BetMGM Sportsbook

While the Broncos ground game hogs the spotlight due to Ashton Jeanty putting together a Heisman Trophy contending season, UNLV has also excelled at generating rush production as the Rebels offense ranks above league average in Rush Success Rate, PPA, and Explosiveness. That bodes well for their chances of sustaining drives down the field as Boise State’s front seven has struggled to stop the run. When in scoring position, points should be automatic as the Broncos rank dead last in Def Finishing Drives.

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UNLV vs. Boise State Predictions

UNLV Preview

If it were not for a back-breaking interception that helped bolster Boise State’s chances of securing the win over the Rebels earlier in the year, then this game may have a different tone. UNLV outpaced the Broncos at various points in their contest, out gaining them in yards per play while possessing a lead at the start of the fourth quarter. With the Broncos defense showing no signs of improvement since their contest, expect more of the same this time around.

Especially while UNLV’s offense has continued to excel at generating rush production as they enter the contest ranked 52nd in Rush Success Rate, 36th in Rush PPA, and 31st in Rush Explosiveness. That is a sharp contrast from the Broncos ranks in regard to stopping the run as their front seven ranks near dead last in Def Rush Success Rate and PPA. That puts UNLV in a position to control the time of possession, as well as sustain methodical drives down the field.

When in the red zone, expect the Rebels to capitalize on their scoring opportunities as the Broncos rank dead last in the nation in Finishing Drives. Better yet for the Rebels, abusing the run also eliminates turnover-worthy plays which helps mask their low mark in Havoc Allowed. Expect UNLV to consistently generate scoring opportunities, shading value towards their spread at the key number of +3 or higher.

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Boise State Preview

Thanks to Ashton Jeanty and the high-powered Broncos offense, Boise State has managed to rattle off an 11-1 season and are the highest-ranked G5 team per the latest college football playoff rankings. The job is not done though as the Broncos would fall out of the playoff picture should they lose to UNLV this Friday.

In order to keep their playoff hopes alive, the Broncos will need to continue to rely on Ashton Jeanty as he has been their lone consistent source of production this year. While Boise State ranks above league average in Rush Success Rate, PPA, and Explosiveness, their offense also ranks in the bottom half of the board in the same previously mentioned metrics in regard to pass production. That spells potential disaster against the Rebels as their front seven excels at stopping the run when in the middle of the field.

Should UNLV manage to slow down Boise State’s offense, then the Broncos will be prone to falling quickly behind on the scoreboard as their defense continues to give them minimal support. That side of the ball has been a thorn in Boise State’s side all season long as the Broncos enter the conference championship ranked 107th in Def Success Rate, 122nd in Explosiveness, and 134th in Finishing Drives.

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UNLV vs. Boise State How to Watch

• When: Friday, December 6

• Where: Albertsons Stadium, Boise, Idaho

• Where to Watch: FOX

UNLV vs. Boise State Best Promos and Sportsbooks

Check out the best promos and online sportsbooks in the U.S. for the Big Ten conference matchup between the UNLV Rebels and Boise State Broncos.

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UNLV vs. Boise State Injuries

UNLV Injuries

• N/A

Boise State Injuries

• RB Sire Gaines - Questionable

• WR Chris Marshall - Questionable

• OL Tyler Keinath - Questionable

• OL Justin Steele - Questionable

• S Alexander Teubner - Questionable