Texas vs. Oklahoma Picks, Predictions, and Odds: Ewers Makes His Return for the Red River Rivalry

• The Texas Longhorns are ranked number one overall in the AP Top-25 poll

• Longhorns starting quarterback Quinn Ewers is set to make his return from injury

• Oklahoma’s secondary ranks below league average in Def Pass Success Rate and PPA

After sitting out the past few weeks with an injury, the Texas Longhorns Heisman contender Quinn Ewers is set to make his return under center to battle it out against the Oklahoma Sooners in the Red River Rivalry. Ewers will be in a position to thrive in his first game back, throwing the ball against a Sooners secondary that ranks well below league average in Def Pass Success Rate and PPA.

Texas vs. Oklahoma Odds

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Texas vs. Oklahoma My Pick

• My Pick: Texas -14 (-110) at BetMGM

The Texas Longhorns have looked every bit of a National Championship contender this season, taking the field ranked well above league average on both sides of the ball in Success Rate, Finishing Drives, Havoc, and Explosiveness. Their elite pass attack will be on full display against the Sooners struggling secondary, moving the ball down the field at a consistent rate while their own defense limits the Sooners injury riddled offense to quick outs and stalled out drives.

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Texas vs. Oklahoma Predictions

Texas Preview

With Alabama and Georgia both losing in conference play, the Texas Longhorns are in full control of their own destiny in terms of being a viable SEC contender that is capable of making a run to the conference championship. The Longhorns have arguably looked like the best team in the nation this season, entering the Red River Rivalry ranked well above league average on both sides of the ball in Success Rate, Finishing Drives, Havoc, and Explosiveness, while sitting near the top of the oddsboard for the National Championship.

With Quinn Ewers set to make his return, the Longhorns offense receives a grizzled veteran at the most important position in one of the crazier atmospheres in the nation. With the Sooners secondary ranking below league average in Def Pass Success Rate and PPA, Ewers should have no issue with picking apart their gaps in coverage as the Longhorns pass attack ranks near the top of the board in the same previously mentioned metrics.

With the Sooners front seven excelling at stuffing the run, the Longhorns best path for success will be to air the ball out at a heavy rate. By successfully picking apart the Sooners coverage, this will also help open up running lanes for the Longhorns ground game. Establishing the run has been an issue for Texas this season as the Longhorns rank below league average in Rush Success Rate, now getting the benefit of churning out sizable gains at a time against a Sooners linebacking unit that is forced to anchor in coverage.

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Oklahoma Preview

After benching their starting quarterback Jackson Arnold for Michael Hawkins Jr, the Sooners found instant success as they beat the Auburn Tigers on the road 27-21. Don’t let their win fool you, generating pass production was still a struggle as Hawkins finished the contest throwing for just 161 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Entering the Red River Rivalry, the Sooners pass attack ranks near dead last in Pass Success Rate and PPA. Their struggles with generating pass production will continue to persist as they now face a Longhorns secondary that ranks 49th in Def Pass Success Rate, 20th in PPA, and 10th in Explosiveness. That spells potential disaster for Oklahoma should they fall behind on the scoreboard, forcing the Sooners to throw at a heavier rate just to stay within the Longhorns scoring pace.

To make matters worse for Oklahoma, their ground game also gives them minimal support as they enter the contest ranked 94th in Rush Success Rate and 72nd in Rush PPA. The Sooners ground game does excel at generating Explosiveness, yet the Longhorns front seven continues to thrive at stuffing the run as Texas ranks top-30 in Def Rush Success Rate, PPA, and Explosiveness. With no advantages on offense, the Sooners will be prone to early outs while the Longhorns receive an uptick in offensive possessions.

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How to Watch Texas vs. Oklahoma

• When: Saturday, October 12th

• Where: Cotton Bowl Stadium, Dallas, Texas

• Watch: ABC

Texas vs. Oklahoma Best Promos and Sportsbooks

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Texas vs. Oklahoma Injuries

Texas Injuries

• QB Quinn Ewers - Probable

• RB CJ Baxter - Out

• RB Christian Clark - Out

Oklahoma Injuries

• WR Nic Anderson - Probable

• OL Geirean Hatchett - Out

• OL Branson Hickman - Out

• WR Jaquaize Pettaway - Questionable

• WR Jayden Gibson - Out

• WR Jalil Farooq - Out