Texas vs. Michigan Picks, Predictions, and Odds: Buy the Overreaction on the Wolverines

• Michigan’s defense graded out very well against Fresno State in week one

• Texas made quick work of Colorado State as a -32 point favorite

• Michigan’s spread opened at a pick’em against Texas earlier in the summer

With question marks surrounding Michigan’s offense regarding who would be the starting quarterback moving forward, we leave week one with more questions than answers as no one stood out against Fresno State. As for the Texas Longhorns, they made quick work of Colorado State as a sizable -32 favorite. Quinn Ewers and the Longhorns offense routinely moved the ball down the field, flexing their elite size and speed over the undersized Rams defense. 

Texas vs. Michigan Odds

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Texas vs. Michigan My Pick

• My Pick: Michigan +7.5 (-115) at BetMGM

After opening at a pick’em against Texas when lines first came out in the summer, the Wolverines are now listed as high as +7.5 after their underwhelming performance against Fresno State. A case can be made that this is an overreaction after running a simplistic offense while going through a quarterback duel, especially since their defense continued to show why they may be one of the best units in the nation. With a massive advantage on the ground, expect Michigan to control time of possession while limiting the Longhorn’s number of offensive drives in the process.

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Texas vs. Michigan Predictions 

Texas Longhorns

Entering their contest against Colorado State as a -32 point favorite, the Texas Longhorns did what they were supposed to do and made quick work of the Rams to the tune of 52-0. The Rams secondary was doomed from the start due to being severely undersized when compared to the Longhorns pass catchers, giving up a combined 355 passing yards and 4 passing touchdowns to both Quinn Ewers and Arch Manning.

The issue for the Longhorns offense this time around is that the Michigan Wolverines defense is a massive step up in talent. After finishing last year ranked near the top of the board in most key metrics, the Wolverines defense have seemingly picked up where they left off by entering the contest ranked top-15 in Def Success Rate, Explosiveness, Finishing Drives, and Havoc. Size is also no longer an advantage for the Longhorns, limiting the quality of Ewers passing lanes against more stout coverage.

Speaking of size, the loss of defensive tackles Byron Murphy II and T’Vondre Sweat was a concern for the Longhorns defense entering the year as they are now far less ferocious in the interior of their defensive line. That spells potential disaster when matched up against the Wolverine’s offense as a brunt of their production stems from their ability to run between the tackles. Should Texas struggle with limiting production in the trenches, then Michigan will be given an opportunity to control the pace of play and keep the ball out of Quinn Ewers hands in the process.

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Michigan Wolverines

While it was expected that the reigning National Champions offense would take a step back after losing quarterback JJ McCarthy and running back Blake Corum to the NFL Draft, week one’s performance against Fresno State was eye-opening to say the least. Especially at quarterback as it’s apparent both Alex Orji and Davis Warren are a major downgrade from McCarthy due to their lack of passing ability.

Until Jack Tuttle is cleared from his injury, then Michigan will be stuck with Orji and Warren at quarterback for the foreseeable future. Luckily for the Wolverines, that may not matter in their highly anticipated matchup against the Texas Longhorns as they have massive advantages on the ground due to their lack of size in the interior. Bypass the Longhorns top-10 marks in rush defense as they benefited from crashing down on a smaller Rams offensive line, now poised to regress against a much tougher unit.

Being able to successfully establish the run against Texas will help control the pace of play, as well as limit the total number of offensive possessions. With less scoring opportunities comes a higher chance of keeping the contest tight, playing toward the Wolverines at the current number of +7.5. Especially since their defense should be able to get Quinn Ewers and company off the field, rolling out another stout secondary that ranks top-10 in Def Pass Success Rate and EPA. 

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Texas vs. Michigan How to Watch

• When: Saturday, September 7 at 12 p.m. ET

• Where: Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, Michigan

• Where to Watch: FOX

Texas vs. Michigan Best Promos and Sportsbooks

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Texas vs. Michigan Injuries

Texas

• RB CJ Baxter - Out

• RB Christian Clark - Out

Michigan

• QB Jack Tuttle - Questionable

• WR Joe Taylor - Questionable

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