Notre Dame enters the season ranked 7th overall in the AP Top 25 poll
The Fighting Irish acquired former Duke quarterback Riley Leonard in the transfer portal
Texas A&M hired Leonard’s former head coach Mike Elko this offseason
Week one’s slate brings us a top-25 contest between the Texas A&M Aggies and Notre Dame Fighting Irish in a matchup that may make or break either team's chances of making the playoffs. Both Notre Dame and Texas A&M are going through key changes this season as Notre Dame is rolling out a new starting quarterback Riley Leonard while the Aggies hired Leonard’s former head coach Mike Elko.
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Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
---|---|---|---|
Texas A&M | -3 (-110) | -155 | Over 46.5 (-110) |
Notre Dame | +3 (-110) | +130 | Under 46.5 (-110) |
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After finishing last season ranked top-20 in Off Pass Success Rate, Explosiveness, and PPA, the Notre Dame pass attack is expected to improve even more off the arm of transfer quarterback Riley Leonard. Leonard will immediately test the Aggies secondary as limiting opposing Pass Play Explosiveness has been an issue for their defense. Factor in a Notre Dame defense that should limit the Aggies' offensive production, and the Fighting Irish should have the tools to cover the spread at a key number.
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After years of mediocracy under Jimbo Fisher, the Aggies decided to part ways with him and brought in former Duke head coach Mike Elko. Elko successfully elevated the Duke program during his tenure, going from a bottom dweller in the Atlantic Coast Conference to two straight bowl berths. A big reason for their success comes from his ability to field a productive offense backed by brilliant quarterback play, now inheriting Conner Weigman who played at a high rate before getting injured last season.
Should Weigman be able to replicate last year’s success, then the Aggies offense will look to immediately improve on their pedestrian rank in Off Pass Success Rate. It won’t come easy against the Fighting Irish, as their secondary is projected to be formidable once again after finishing last season ranked top-5 in Def Pass Success Rate and PPA. Defending against the big play was an issue, yet Elko’s new system revolves more around capitalizing on Success Rate.
That plays in Notre Dame’s favor as their defense excels at limiting opposing Success Rate, putting them in a position to stall out the Aggies' offense. Speaking of defense, that was an issue for the Aggies last season as they finished the year ranked 72nd in PPA and 105th in Explosiveness. Expect their struggles to continue against a revamped versatile Notre Dame offense. With an inability to slow down Notre Dame’s pass attack, the Aggies may find themselves struggling to stay within scoring pace.
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After originally playing under Mike Elko at Duke, Leonard will be under a brand new system as the Fighting Irish bring in new offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock from LSU. Under Denbrock, Leonard will find himself in more designed runs which creates added pressure to opposing secondaries as they have to make a choice of either staying in coverage or cheating up to stop the run.
With Leonard capable of dissecting an Aggies secondary that already struggled with limiting Explosiveness, the Fighting Irish should have no issue with moving the ball down the field at a consistent rate. That will help create space for their ground game as they are tasked with facing off against Aggies' front seven that excelled at stopping the run. With versatility on their side, expect the Notre Dame offense to generate scoring opportunities early and often against the Aggies.
With Notre Dame’s offense expected to burn the Aggies secondary, it will be up to their own defense to seal the victory. That bodes well for the Irish as their defense is expected to maintain their high marks in limiting opposing Success Rate. Especially against an Aggies offense that is unable to exploit Notre Dame’s struggles with limiting Explosiveness as they prefer to utilize short throws and runs up the middle.
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When: Saturday, August 31, 7:30 PM ET
Where: Kyle Field, College Station, Texas
Where to Watch: ABC
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Texas A&M
TE Donovan Green - Questionable
WR Jabre Barber - Out
RB Rueben Owens - Out
Notre Dame
OT Charles Jagusah - Out
CB Chance Tucker - Out
TE Mitchell Evans - Questionable
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