Tennessee clinched their first playoff berth since the playoff system was implemented in 2014
Ohio State gets home field advantage as they are the lower seed in the first round of the playoffs
The Volunteers defense ranks top-10 in Def Success Rate, Havoc, Explosiveness, and Finishing Drives
After going 10-2 in the regular season, the Tennessee Volunteers have secured their first playoff berth since the playoff system was implemented in 2014. Come this Saturday, the Volunteers hit the road to battle it out against the Ohio State Buckeyes in Columbus. Expect a minimal amount of scoring opportunities as both units enter the contest ranked very well in most advanced defensive metrics.
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Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
---|---|---|---|
Tennessee | +7.5 (-115) | +240 | Over 46.5 (-105) |
Ohio State | -7.5 (-105) | -300 | Under 46.5 (-115) |
My Pick: Under 46.5 (-115) at BetMGM
While Nico Iamaleava and the Volunteers offense hogged most of the spotlight entering the season, it was their defense that led them to a playoff berth as that side of the ball played at a high level for a majority of the year. Heading into Saturday, Tennessee’s defense ranks top-10 in Def Success Rate, Explosiveness, Finishing Drives, and Havoc. Every bit of their defensive production will be on full display against the regressing Ohio State offense, a unit that is fresh off of an embarrassing loss to the Michigan Wolverines.
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When Tennessee’s offense sputtered at times, their defense was tasked with bailing them out as their high level of play kept contests tight enough for them to remain competitive in. The Volunteers defense has arguably been the best defensive unit in the nation this year as they head into the playoffs ranked 10th overall in Def Success Rate, 4th in Explosiveness, 2nd in Finishing Drives, and 7th in Havoc.
Even with their secondary underwhelming when in the middle of the field as their low mark in Def Pass Success Rate indicates, Tennessee’s back end gets the benefit of cheating up in coverage as Will Howard struggles with generating Explosiveness. Especially with their front seven being more than capable of holding their ground in regard to stopping the run as Tennessee ranks well above league average in Def Rush Success Rate, PPA, and Explosiveness.
Speaking of a lack of Explosiveness, the Volunteers star quarterback Nico Iamaleava has also severely underwhelmed in his efforts of stretching out the field as he ranks an abysmal 84th in Pass Explosiveness. This has left Tennessee’s offense prone to stalling out at times when matched up against teams who excel at defending when in the middle of the field, now potentially suffering from the same fate against a Buckeyes unit who ranks ninth overall in Def Success Rate.
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After spending a majority of the year at the top of the oddsboard for the National Championship, the Ohio State Buckeyes took a hit after their embarrassing loss to the Michigan Wolverines. In their loss, their offense was exposed as their ground game was consistently bottled up while Will Howard struggled with picking apart the Wolverines gaps in coverage.
To help mask Will Howard’s struggles with generating Explosiveness and taking care of the ball, the Buckeyes have reverted to a heavier dose of the run. Against Tennessee, their ground game will find it tough to generate rush production as they face off against a Volunteers front seven who grades out very well in Def Rush Success Rate, PPA, and Explosiveness as previously mentioned. With minimal help from their ground game, expect the Buckeyes offense to be prone to early outs and stalled out drives.
On the other side of the ball, the Buckeyes defense has also played at a very high level as they enter the contest ranked 9th overall in Def Success Rate, 10th in Explosiveness, 1st in Finishing Drives, and 15th in Havoc. Their top ranked mark in Def Finishing Drives is vital for the full game under as it indicates they excel at limiting opposing offensive production when they are backed up inside the 40.
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When: Saturday, December 21st
Where: Ohio Stadium, Columbus, Ohio
Where to Watch: ABC/ESPN
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Tennessee Injuries
RB Peyton Lewis - Questionable
WR Squirrel White - Questionable
WR Dont’e Thornton - Questionable
WR Bru McCoy - Questionable
Ohio State Injuries
TE Jace Middleton - Questionable
TE Will Kacmarek - Questionable
LB Mitchell Melton - Questionable
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