SMU vs. Penn State Picks, Predictions and Odds: Who Will Advance to the CFP Quarterfinal?

• This is the first CFP appearance for both teams

• Both teams lost their conference championship games (Clemson and Oregon)

• Penn State’s only ranked win came against Illinois 

The No. 11 SMU Mustangs (11-2) will face the No. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions in the first round of the College Football Playoff, with the winner advancing to play No. 3 Boise State in the quarterfinal.

Both runner-ups in their respective conference championships, this matchup pits a newcomer in the Power Four conferences against a staple of college football tradition. SMU only lost one regular-season game, against BYU, until it fell to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game, while Penn State fell to Ohio State and Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game.

Saturday’s impending clash will mark both teams’ first appearances in the CFP. As we continue, we will analyze the matchup, discuss advantages and disadvantages, and share our best SMU vs. Penn State betting picks. 

SMU vs. Penn State Odds 

SMU went 8-5 (61.5 percent) against the spread and outperformed the spread by an average of 4.7 points per game. They also went 3-2 (60 percent) ATS on the road and 2-1 ATS against ranked opponents, outperforming the spread by an average of 8.2 points in those games.

Penn State went 6-7 (46.2 percent) ATS and did not out- or underperform the average spread. They were also 3-4 (42.9 percent) ATS at home and 0-3 ATS against ranked opponents, failing to cover by an average of 3.3 points.

Odds for the SMU vs Penn State matchup are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Sign up for an account and place your bets at FanDuel: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets if Your Bet Wins.

SMU vs. Penn State Predictions 

Just one year ago, SMU was competing with teams such as Tulane, UTSA, and Memphis in the American Athletic Conference. Their move to ACC turned heads given the geographical divide between northeast Texas and the Atlantic Coast, but any questions regarding the Mustangs’ play were quickly doused as they went 8-0 in regular-season conference play.

An early-season change at quarterback left sophomore Kevin Jennings in charge of the offense. The 6-foot native Texan completed 66 percent of his passes en route to 3,050 yards, 27 total touchdowns, and eight interceptions. He also went 31/50 for 304 yards, four total touchdowns, and an interception in the 34-31 loss to Clemson.

Jennings is a risk-taker and threw at least one interception in five of his last seven games. But like many talented quarterbacks, turnovers are a necessary evil to unlock his full upside.

The Mustangs' running game as a whole isn’t anything special, though senior back Brashard Smith is excellent. He ran for nearly 100 yards per game and had 14 touchdowns on 5.9 yards per carry.

SMU finished the year ranked 13th in yards per pass attempt, meaning they are highly explosive and just one moment away from making a game-changing play.

But this is no one-trick pony. SMU’s defense finished the year 11th in EPA per play, allowing 0.093 fewer points than expected per play. This was largely accomplished by their defense, which allowed the third-fewest rushing yards per attempt (2.8) in the nation. They also ranked 33rd in yards allowed per pass attempt (6.6) and 31st in percentage of pass plays that ended in sacks.

An area of concern will be the mental game. They finished the year with a negative turnover differential and also committed the fifth-most penalties per game.

However, they were 15th in third-down defense and 22nd in third-down offense, which could also prove to be just as impactful.

On the other side, this is a must-win game in every way for Penn State—not just because a loss would send them home until next fall, but because they are fighting the stigma of being a team that folds at the sign of any adversity.

Coach James Franklin is 3-17 against teams ranked in the top 10 during his Penn State tenure. Although SMU is just outside that threshold at 11, the sentiment still applies.

Penn State was excellent all year aside from a home loss to Ohio State, during which it only scored 13 points, and the Big Ten Championship Game against Oregon, when it gave up a season-high 45 points and threw a game-ending interception on its final offensive drive, once again feeding into the narrative that it is allergic to marquee wins.

The Lions finished the year ninth in offensive and 10th in defensive EPA per play. They gained the fourth-most yards per play (6.7) and allowed the eighth-fewest yards per play (4.5), thereby making them one of the most efficient teams in the sport.

Offensive coordinator Andrew Kotelnicki came over from Kansas with the goal of increasing the team’s offensive ceiling and explosiveness, both of which he achieved. Although they came up short against Oregon, they gained 523 yards of total offense and scored 37 points at a neutral venue against the top-ranked team in the country.

While that was promising, the team’s defensive performance was anything but. The Ducks moved the ball at will against a team that ranked 13th in yards allowed per rushing attempt and 23rd in yards allowed per pass attempt. They also only surrendered one sack against a defensive front that is led by projected top-five draft pick and edge rusher Abdul Carter.

QB Drew Allar flashed his potential at different points of the season but was terrible in the team’s home loss to Ohio State, during which he went 12/20 for 146 yards and an interception. He also did not play much of a role in the team’s only win against a ranked opponent, Illinois, during which he threw for 135 yards, no TDs, and no INTs.

Despite all of those negatives, Penn State was still ninth in average scoring differential (+17.2) to SMU’s 12th (+14.8). 

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SMU vs. Penn State My Pick

• My Pick: Penn State Spread at -8.5 (-112) via FanDuel

There’s a severe clash in brand recognition here. Penn State is renowned as a perennial power in college football, whereas SMU is only just hitting national relevance. 

The Nittany Lions have slightly better metrics than the Mustangs, but they disappointed massively in both of their matchups with fellow contenders and have a long history of failing to show up in big moments. 

Their opponent has no experience with this stage or these expectations, yet they were incredibly solid and will be a headache to put away.

For all of their flaws, Penn State is much more physical than SMU. The Mustangs also might have earned more ranked wins than the Nittany Lions did, but they didn’t get the experience of playing close games against Ohio State and Oregon and also lost their only matchup with a (would-be) contender, Clemson.

There have been a lot of cloudy days in Happy Valley around this time of year, but we’d keep our eyes peeled for a ray of sunshine as the Nittany Lions win, cover, and advance to face Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty and Boise State in the next round. 

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How to Watch SMU vs. Penn State

• When: Saturday, Dec. 21 at 12:00 p.m. ET

• Where: Beaver Stadium, University Park, PA

• Watch: TNT/Max

SMU vs. Penn State Best Promos and Sportsbooks

All major online sportsbooks have Penn State favored by 8.5 points.

Penn State bettors will find the best deal at Caesars Sportsbook, where they are -8.5 (-110). SMU bettors will want to turn to BetMGM, where they are +8.5 (-105).

Anyone who bets on SMU vs. Penn State at FanDuel sportsbook can win $150 in bonus bets with a winning $5 wager just by following our exclusive FanDuel link.

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SMU vs. Penn State Injuries

SMU Injuries

• RJ Maryland (TE) - Out (knee)

Penn State Injuries

• Elliot Washington (CB) - Questionable

• Kevin Winston Jr. (S) -  Questionable

• Alonzo Ford (DT) - Out (lower body)

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