Penn State vs. Oregon Picks, Predictions and Odds: Who Will Win the Big Ten Conference Championship Game?

• Oregon is the only undefeated P4 team in America

• Penn State’s only loss was to Ohio State, who Oregon beat by one point

• PSU coach James Franklin is 1-13 against top-five opponents

The No. 1 Oregon Ducks are one win away from claiming their first Big Ten Conference Championship trophy in their first season as a member of the conference. Standing in their way are the No. 4 Penn State Nittany Lions, who are out to prove that they are a legitimate contender for the national championship.

Here, we will analyze the matchup and share our favorite betting picks for the Penn State vs. Oregon showdown. 

Penn State vs. Oregon Odds 

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Penn State vs. Oregon Predictions 

Penn State has a negative reputation because of its inability to win marquee matchups. They are only 1-13 against top-five opponents in 11 seasons under coach James Franklin, whose personal reputation is at stake once again.

Still, the past is the past, and this year’s version of the Nittany Lions is scary. They rank fifth in yards per play (6.7) and yards per play allowed (4.3), seventh in average point margin (+19.3), and are in the top 20 in yards allowed per rush attempt and sack percentage. 

Offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnick unlocked the explosiveness in QB Drew Allar, who has 23 total touchdowns, only five interceptions, and ranks 11th in QBR. That change happened without sacrificing the ground game, which flourished to the tune of 194.7 yards per game and 5.1 yards per carry. 

On the other end of the field is Oregon, a team that started the year shaky with close results against Idaho and Boise State, but that showed consistent improvement throughout the year and that took down Ohio State at home in the middle of the season, 32-31.

While the Ducks players and coaching staff don’t have a ton of big-game history, QB Dillon Gabriel is in his sixth year of college ball and has wielded that experience well, racking up 31 total TDs and six INTs for an undefeated team.

Oregon did something no other team in a power conference did, which was play and win eight straight weeks of conference play without a bye week. They dominated Washington 49-21 in their return to the field last weekend and have both the strength and physicality to comfortably line up across from any team in America.

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Penn State vs. Oregon My Pick

• My Pick: Penn State Spread at +3.5 (-110) via FanDuel

Dan Lanning is only in his third year in charge of Oregon, but he’s proven himself to be an intelligent and meticulous coach with a diverse roster. Penn State has the personnel to compete with, if not outduel the Ducks, which means this matchup could be decided on the clipboard.

Franklin regularly has his team positioned as one of the best in America but basically never delivers in the biggest moments. This should be a close matchup that we’d favor Oregon to win, but getting Penn State with the hook could be a savvy play.

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How to Watch Penn State vs. Oregon

• When: Saturday, Dec. 7 @ 8:00 p.m. ET

• Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN

• Watch: CBS

Penn State vs. Oregon Best Promos and Sportsbooks

Every major college football betting site has Oregon favored by 3.5 points.

Ducks bettors will get the best deal at bet365 and Caesars, where they have -105 odds. Penn State bettors will want to look at BetRivers, where they are (-109) on the spread.

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Penn State vs. Oregon Injuries

Penn State Injuries

• Kevin Winston (S) - Questionable

• Elliott Washington II (CB) - Questionable

Oregon Injuries

• Keyon Ware-Hudson (DT) - Questionable