Penn State vs. Boise State Picks, Predictions & Player Props: Will David Topple Goliath?

• Boise State’s only loss was on the road to Oregon

• Penn State lost twice, to Oregon in the B10 Championship Game and to Ohio State

• The winner will advance to face either Georgia or Notre Dame in the semifinal

The No. 3 Boise State Broncos and Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty will take on the No. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions on New Year’s Eve to kick-off the College Football Playoff quarterfinal.

While the Broncos enter as huge underdogs, they will have the best player on the field and get to face a coach who’s been historically awful in big moments. Here are our thoughts and best bets for the Penn State vs. Boise State matchup.

Penn State vs. Boise State Odds 

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Penn State vs. Boise State Predictions 

There’s been a lot of discourse about the merits of lesser-heralded teams and teams from lower conferences, with Boise State both directly and indirectly mentioned—but let’s stop to review those claims.

Boise lost one game all year, on the road against undefeated Oregon by just three points. Ashton Jeanty ran wild, as expected, and the offense found success moving the ball through the air en route to 34 points and a positive time of possession.

The Broncos finished the year fourth in points per game (37.7) and third in rushing yards per attempt (6.1), mostly thanks to their superstar back. Jeanty himself ran for 2,497 yards and 29 touchdowns, while QB Maddux Madsen completed 62 percent of his passes for 2,714 yards, 22 touchdowns, and three interceptions.

Meanwhile, the defense was only 32nd in points allowed per game (22.6) and 55th in yards allowed per play (5.4), which is an obvious spot of concern heading into their showdown with the Nittany Lions.

Boise State has also been off since Dec. 6, when they beat UNLV in the Mountain West Championship Game 21-7. That means they’ll have close to a month of rest and preparation under their belt, though it’s possible that time off causes them to look rusty when they get back on the field.

On the other side, Penn State went 12-2 with its only losses coming at home against Ohio State (20-13) and in the Big Ten Championship Game against Oregon (45-37). 

Right off the bat, the concern with PSU is its ability to show up in pressured situations. Coach James Franklin is 3-17 against top-10 teams, and quarterback Drew Allar, totaled three touchdowns and three interceptions in four games against ranked opponents.

PSU’s greatest asset is its physical superiority, particularly in the trenches. Projected top-10 draft pick Abdul Carter lines up on the outside of a defensive line that was outstanding against the run and that held opponents to the fifth-fewest yards per play (4.4). 

The Nittany Lions also finished eighth in yards per play (6.6) and repeatedly flashed explosiveness that lacked in years past. The greatest example of that was their championship showdown with Oregon, during which they gained 523 yards of total offense despite only holding the ball for 27:24.

Penn State struggled when it faced Ohio State’s potent running game, allowing 40 carries for 176 yards, but the Broncos’ offensive line is nowhere near as physically imposing as the Buckeyes’. That was also a one-off, and they totally dominated No. 11 SMU in a 38-10 rout in the first round of the CFP.

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Penn State vs. Boise State: My Pick

• My Pick: Penn State Spread at -11.5 (-108) via FanDuel

Boise State is going to need to limit chunk plays on defense and find a way to get Jeanty to take over the ballgame. If he doesn’t get close to 200 yards rushing with at least a couple of touchdowns, it’s hard to find a path to victory for the underdogs.

Coach Franklin really struggles in marquee matchups, but we’re not quite at the point of the bracket at which that will become a factor. The Nittany Lions’ physicality and talent blew SMU off the field and has a good chance of doing the same here.

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Penn State vs. Boise State Best Player Props

Ashton Jeanty Under 129.5 Rushing Yards (-125 at Caesars Sportsbook)

Jeanty has been nothing short of outstanding this season, but he’s about to be at a huge deficit in line play and will be standing opposite a loaded box stuffed with future Sunday players.

Jeanty went over this line in all but two games, but Penn State is extremely physical and will close most of the holes he’s used to hitting. This isn’t a criticism of him, but more skepticism of his offensive line. 

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Drew Allar Over 0.5 Interceptions (-113 at Caesars Sportsbook)

Allar has had his moments this season, but he also threw at least one interception in his matchups with Oregon and Ohio State. 

Although Boise State is not of the same caliber, this is the biggest game of his life, and we’re not sure that he has the consistency to play a mistake-free game.

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Nicholas Singleton Over 65.5 Rushing Yards (-114 at FanDuel sportsbook)

Singleton is a physical menace who just ran 14 times for 90 yards against No. 11 SMU and 10 times for 105 yards against No. 1 Oregon. He went over this line in three straight games and should get a hefty workload if Penn State opts to try to control the clock. 

Boise State also has not faced an offensive line playing as well as PSU’s.

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Penn State vs. Boise State How to Watch

• When: Tuesday, Dec. 31 @ 7:30 p.m. ET

• Where: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ

• Where to Watch: ESPN

Penn State vs. Boise State Best Promos and Sportsbooks

All major college football betting sites have Penn State favored by either 11 or 11.5 points.

BetMGM and Caesars have the best deals for Penn State bettors, where they are -11 (-110). FanDuel is the best spot for Boise State bettors, where they are +11.5 (-112).

Find our favorite betting promos listed in the table below.

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Penn State vs. Boise State Injuries

Penn State Injuries

• Anthony Donkoh (OL) - Out (knee)

• Tyrece Mills (S) - Questionable

Boise State Injuries

• Tyler Keinath (OL) - Questionable

• Alexander Teubner (S) - Questionable

• Jason Steele (OL) - Questionable

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