Ohio State is favored to win the national championship
Oregon won the last matchup in 2021, 35-28
Road teams travelling multiple time zones have not performed well this year
The No. 3 Oregon Ducks will face the No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes in a matchup that could determine the fate of the Big Ten regular-season championship on Saturday.
The Ducks are still undefeated five games into their first season in their new conference. They had a couple of close encounters to start the year but won their last three matchups by 35, 21, and 21 points.
The Buckeyes allowed the fewest points per game and registered the largest average margin of victory during their 5-0 start to the year. They lead all teams in national championship futures odds and are expected to win despite being on the road.
Here, we will analyze the betting odds and share our favorite picks for the Oregon v. Ohio State extravaganza.
Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook. Place your bets on this matchup and claim a bonus at FanDuel: Bet $5, Get $300 in Bonus Bets.
Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
---|---|---|---|
No. 2 Ohio State | -3.5 (-102) | -156 | Over 52.5 (-115) |
No. 3 Oregon | +3.5 (-120) | +130 | Under 52.5 (-105) |
OSU’s best chance to win its first national championship since 2014 may be with this team. They have an experienced quarterback in Will Howard (249.6 yards per game, 12 touchdowns, three interceptions), two of the best running backs in the sport, and the stingiest defense in the country.
Chip Kelly’s first year as the offensive coordinator has seen Ohio State put more emphasis on running the ball with Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson. The pair averaged 161 yards on 7.9 yards per carry and forced opponents to sink into the box, opening up the passing lanes for Howard and their elite receiving corps.
Oregon was totally underwhelming during the first couple weeks of the season but took off once it figured out its offensive line combinations. They held four of their five opponents to 14 or fewer points and rank 18th in total scoring (37.8 points per game).
Sixth-year quarterback Dillon Gabriel has questions to answer. He helped take down No. 3 Texas as a member of the Oklahoma Sooners last year but hasn’t been as dominant as many expected him to be and threw two horrible interceptions in his last game, a 31-10 win against Michigan State.
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My Pick: Ohio State -3.5 (-102) at FanDuel
The implications attached to this game are enormous. A loss for the Buckeyes would inevitably cause them to fall from their position as the national title favorites and would pave the way for Oregon to secure a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff.
On the other hand, a win for Ohio State would put them in the best position they’ve been in for years. There isn’t a team in the SEC that’s clearly better than them (if better at all), and they don’t have the looming threat of an elite Michigan team waiting to ruin their fun.
Oregon’s run defense gave up 3.8 yards per carry, which ranks 44th in the nation. They let Heisman favorite and Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty go for 192 yards and three touchdowns on 25 carries, though the 7.7 yards per carry he averaged was actually his lowest mark of the season.
Oregon is only 110th in takeaways per game to Ohio State’s 23rd.
They’re 13th in sack percentage, but the Buckeyes are first.
The Ducks are going to need to steal a possession if they can’t stop the visitors’ running game. Gabriel also needs to remember why he was one of the top preseason Heisman candidates and put in a masterful performance against the unfriendliest defense in the country.
It would be better to get this line at three or 2.5 points, but we’d still take the risk of laying the points with Ohio State. They haven’t faced stiff competition but also haven’t put a foot wrong and have the chance to make a statement this weekend.
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When: Saturday, October 12 @ 4:30/7:30 p.m. PT/ET
Where: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, OR
Watch: NBC/Peacock
Most of the best sports betting sites have Ohio State favored by three or 3.5 points. The best deal for Ohio State bettors can be found on DraftKings, where they are -3 (-112) favorites.
Oregon bettors will find the best odds at bet365, BetMGM, Caesars, and BetRivers, where they are +3.5 (-115) home underdogs.
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No major injuries
Gary Bryant (WR) - Out
Jahlil Florence (DB) - Out
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