Oklahoma State Cowboys vs West Virginia Mountaineers Predictions, Odds, Picks

• When Oklahoma State has the ball — Balance has led the way
• When West Virginia has the ball — Can newfound rushing offense sustain?
• X-factors to watch

Oklahoma State vs West Virginia Odds

Odds presented by: DraftKings Sportsbook

The Big 12 can be a funny conference, especially in November. The Cowboys are the more talented team, but both these squads typically play close games, even though Oklahoma State has won six straight matchups.

But that’s where this ends. Even though the Mountaineers aren’t playing for a title, they’re playing well and that should scare a Cowboys team that doesn’t have a ton of room for error.

We like West Virginia to cover the spread and on the money line.

Garcia’s 2021 record: (17-13)

Trends to Watch

• Cowboys are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall
• Cowboys are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 conference games
• Cowboys are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games following a ATS win
• Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite
• Cowboys are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November
• Under is 7-1 in Cowboys last 8 road games
• Under is 16-6-1 in Cowboys last 23 games overall
• Under is 6-2 in the last 8 head-to-head meetings
• Cowboys are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 head-to-head meetings
• Mountaineers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November
• Mountaineers are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 home games
• Mountaineers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall
• Under is 11-2 in Mountaineers last 13 games as an underdog
• Under is 10-4 in Mountaineers last 14 vs. a team with a winning record
• Under is 6-2 in Mountaineers last 8 conference games

Oklahoma State Cowboys at West Virginia Mountaineers

Cowboys offense more tame, balanced, than usual

When thinking about Oklahoma State (and really much of the Big 12) most people think of a high-powered, run-and-gun offense.

Well, that’s not how the Cowboys have operated this year and yet at 7-1 overall and ranked No. 11 in the country, they don’t seem to have missed a beat. Oklahoma State comes off a 55-3 drubbing lowly Kansas, but outside of that the Cowboys have yet to score than 32 points in a game.

Spencer Sanders had nearly identical numbers in 2019 and 2020 (going 155-of-247 passing in both seasons for 62.8 percent passing) but this year he’s down to just 59.6 percent (102-of-171). He has 11 touchdowns and five interceptions with 1,341 passing yards and has added another 298 rushing yards and four touchdowns.

But don’t forget about Jaylen Warren — the shifty 5-foot-8 senior from Salt Lake City who is one of the best running backs in the conference — who has 998 all-purpose yards and six touchdowns and can change the game in a heartbeat.

It’s hard to know what to expect against an inconsistent West Virginia defense. There are times they’ve looked great — like holding Oklahoma to 16, but they did lose that game. Plus, they’ve given up as much as 45 in a loss to Baylor.

That said, coming off of two wins in a row including last week’s over No. 22 Iowa State, don’t sleep on West Virginia.

Mountaineers not afraid to throw it

The year’s been up-and-down for Neal Brown’s team, currently 4-4 overall and 2-3 in what is a rather mediocre Big 12 conference.

Now this isn’t a bad team by any means — they have wins over Virginia Tech when it was ranked No. 15 (though the Hokies have lost four of their last six, so that’s not as impressive as it once was) and No. 22 Iowa State last week. That said, they’ve lost to middling teams like Texas Tech and Maryland, got stomped by Baylor and couldn’t get it done vs. the Sooners.

Yes, it’s another typical West Virginia season. The Mountaineers have lost four or more games in nine of the past 10 seasons. The one time they didn’t, they lost three. It’s the typical “good enough to beat anybody on a given day, but not good enough to win consistently” that we’ve grown accustomed to from West Virginia.

Jarret Doege ranks 28th in passing yards (2,071) nationally but has just 11 touchdowns and seven interceptions to show for it.

That said, the Mountaineers do have a rather deep wide receiver core, with five different players who have more than 250 yards receiving and a touchdown scored this season. We will see if they can score against a Cowboys defense that’s been near the tops of the conference statistically.

X-factors to watch

Can West Virginia run the ball? The Mountaineers average just 3.7 yards per carry as a team and have packages for their mobile quarterback Garrett Greene, but on the whole this season hadn’t moved the ball well on the ground until the past two weeks.

In the last two games, Ledde Brown has 111 yards and three touchdowns vs. TCU and 109 yards and two touchdowns vs. Iowa State. If this offense can be multi-faceted, West Virginia might be able to pull off this upset.

For the Cowboys, we’re watching the kicking game — something close games on the road often come down to. Alex Hale is just 3-of-6 on field goals this year, with all three misses coming from 40 or farther and all three makes coming from inside of 39.

How to Watch Cowboys at Mountaineers