No. 12 Oklahoma State Cowboys at No. 25 Texas Longhorns Predictions, Odds, Picks

• When Oklahoma State has the ball — Spencer Sanders a wild card
• When Texas has the ball — Can Longhorns score against the Big 12’s best defense?
• X-factors to watch

Oklahoma State vs Texas Odds

Odds taken from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Texas has to be heartbroken. The Longhorns could very well be 5-1 right now, unbeaten in the league, ranked near the top 10, and trending toward a conference title game.

Instead, their season is on the line a week later after a soul-crushing loss to their bitter rival. Offense hasn’t been an issue for Steve Sarkisian’s bunch, defense has.

That’s the key for Texas. For Oklahoma State, can Sanders protect the ball?. The Cowboys got away with three turnovers against Baylor in their last game, but they won’t be so fortunate if that happens again this week.

In the end, the Cowboys have everything still in front of them and this should be a close one so it’s hard to see them getting blown out.

We like Oklahoma State to cover the spread. +5 (-110)

Garcia’s 2021 record: (12-8)

Oklahoma State vs Texas Betting Trends to Watch

• Cowboys are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog
• Cowboys are 15-5 ATS in last 20 vs. a team with a winning record
• Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall
• Under is 4-0 in Cowboys last 4 games as an underdog
• Under is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 road games
• Under is 3-1-1 in Cowboys last 5 games overall
• Under is 7-3 in Cowboys last 10 vs. a team with a winning record
• Road team is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 head-to-head meetings
• Cowboys are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Texas
• Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings
• Under is 7-0-1 in the last 8 meetings in Texas
• Longhorns are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite
• Longhorns are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games in October
• Under is 21-5 in Longhorns last 26 home games vs. a team with winning road record
• Over is 5-2 in Longhorns last 7 games as a favorite

Oklahoma State vs Texas Predictions

Can Spencer Sanders stay under control for Oklahoma State?

His ceiling is as high as many in the country. A big arm, a solid frame and legitimate dual-threat ability — Spencer Sanders is tantalizing at the quarterback spot for Oklahoma State.

On one hand, he’s led them to an unblemished, 5-0 record. One of just 13 remaining undefeated teams across the nation. He’s led Oklahoma State to consecutive wins over ranked teams. If he were able to get another this week, it would be the first time in program history the Cowboys would have knocked off three straight top-25 foes.

But on the other, he’s just not completely reliable.

On the season, Sanders is completing 58.3 percent (56-of-96) of his passes with five touchdowns and four interceptions. Those are troubling numbers for the junior, whose stats are down across the board from his first two seasons.

He had identical numbers as a freshman and sophomore passing: completing 62.8 percent (155-of-247) of his passes in both seasons. His QB rating has dropped each year from freshman (145.4), to sophomore (143.2) to junior (135.5).

That said, he’s not exactly going against a defense that puts any fear in you. The Longhorns gave up 55 big ones in a loss to Oklahoma last week and gave up 40 earlier this year to Arkansas.

Longhorns trying to solve the Cowboys riddle

The Big 12 isn’t exactly known for playing defense, but don’t tell that to Oklahoma State.

The Cowboys, who were off last week, have held each of their first five opponents to 23 points or fewer. That includes limiting Kansas State when it was ranked to 20 points and Baylor when it was ranked to just 14 points.

But despite the fact that it’s lost multiple games, Texas’ offense is probably the best the Cowboys will have seen. The Longhorns looked like they were going to roll to a win last week before Oklahoma came storming back.

But offensively, there were no issues for Texas. The Longhorns went marching up and down the field all day long, scoring 48 points. For many teams that would be the most this season, but that’s just the third-highest output in a game this year — they scoured 58 against Rice and, unbelievably, 70 against Texas Tech.

Last week it was the Casey Thompson show. The junior went 20-of-34 (58.8 percent) setting season-highs in passing yards (388) and touchdowns (5). That’s not to mention that running back who is pretty decent, Bijan Robinson. He ripped off another 137 yards and a touchdown.

X-factors to watch

Can you possibly be an x-factor if you catch nine passes for 261 yards and two touchdowns the week before? No? Ok, well too bad because we’re still going with Texas wide receiver Xavier Worthy.

The 5-star freshman has five touchdowns and 368 yards in three conference games. Teams haven’t had much success moving the ball against Oklahoma State, let’s see if a natural talent like this changes that.

For Oklahoma State, keep an eye out for Tay Martin. A senior from Louisiana, Martin comes off of two huge games — nine catches for 100 yards and a score vs. Kansas State and six catches for 110 yards vs. Baylor.

He has three 100+ yard games on the season so don’t be surprised if No. 4 comes on Saturday.

How to watch Oklahoma State at Texas