Ohio State vs. Notre Dame Picks, Predictions and Odds: The National Championship Is on the Line

• Ohio State outscored its CFP opponents 111-55

• Notre Dame is riding a 13-game winning streak

• Ohio State beat Notre Dame 17-14 near the start of last year 

The No. 8 Ohio State Buckeyes are about to take on the No. 7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the finale of the first 12-team College Football Championship on Monday night. 

Ohio State arrived in the national championship game on the back of blowout wins over Tennessee and Oregon and after taking down Texas thanks to a late-game defensive touchdown. They averaged the highest point differential in the country and were clearly the best team through the first three rounds of the playoff.

Notre Dame isn’t as flashy as OSU, but it meticulously went about its business with wins against Indiana, Georgia, and Penn State. Head coach Marcus Freeman has already flexed his coaching acumen in several instances and has his team’s belief they can pull off an upset after winning 13 straight games.

As the final college football game of the year approaches, we are going to share our favorite Ohio State vs. Notre Dame betting picks.

Ohio State vs. Notre Dame Odds 

Ohio State went 9-6 (60 percent) against the spread, 9-6 (60 percent) ATS as a favorite, and 2-0 (100 percent) ATS at a neutral site.

Notre Dame led the nation at 12-2-1 (85.7 percent) ATS, 2-0 ATS (100 percent) as an underdog, and 5-0 (100 percent) ATS at a neutral venue.

Odds for Ohio State vs Notre Dame matchup are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Sign up for an account and place your bets at FanDuel: Bet $5, Get $300 in Bonus Bets if Your Bet Wins.

Ohio State vs. Notre Dame Predictions 

Don’t let the teams’ seeds lead to any confusion—Ohio State is a heavy favorite in this matchup.

The Buckeyes would’ve been viewed as true juggernauts had they not suffered one of the largest upset losses of the season to unranked Michigan in the final week of the regular season. That 13-10 loss made them 10-2, with their only previous loss coming on the road by one point against undefeated Oregon.

OSU led the nation in EPA per play with a net performance of +.292 points per play. And yes, they were first in both offensive and defensive EPA per play.

Adding to their statistical dominance, Ohio State allowed the fewest yards per play (3.9) and was fourth in yards per play (6.8). All of that was while they maintained the most talented roster in the country, with standouts such as Jeremiah Smith Jr., Quinshon Judkins, TreVeyon Henderson, Caleb Downs, Jack Sawyer, and others. 

There’s no doubting the team that Ohio State is when it’s at its best. The problem is that there’s no guarantee they will be at that level when they need to be. 

The regular-season loss to Michigan marked the fourth straight season that OSU fell to its archrivals and served as a reminder of the repeated let-downs the team endured in recent years. Other examples include their 42-41 CFP semifinal loss to Georgia in 2022, a 52-24 loss to Alabama in the 2020 national championship game, and a 29-23 CFP semifinal loss to Clemson in 2019.

In many ways, this is about Ohio State proving that it can finally win the biggest game of the year mentally, not just physically.

On the flip side, Notre Dame is trying to escape being a historical great of college football and simply become a great, one that is capable of competing with the top dogs in the modern era, even as an independent.

The Irish’s season appeared to be over just two weeks into the season after it lost to unranked Northern Illinois at home, 16-14. Rather than let that loss derail them, however, the Irish beat four ranked teams and then all three of their CFP opponents to earn their current 13-game winning streak leading into the championship bout.

Notre Dame limits the possible margins that exist to ensure they are always in with a chance at winning, even if they don’t play their best. They accomplish that by being excellent on third down, ranking fourth and holding their opponents to a conversion rate of just 29.6 percent. They also allowed their opponents to complete just 50.7 percent of their passes, the lowest mark in the nation, and ranked 25th in yards allowed per rush attempt (3.7).

Offensively, this is a team that leans into the running game both with their backs and quarterback. Their 5.9 yards per carry ranked third and was even ahead of Boise State, which was headlined by Heisman runner-up and running back great, Ashton Jeanty. 

Quarterback Riley Leonard is an average downfield passer at best and threw two interceptions in the semifinal matchup with Penn State. However, he also threw a 54-yard touchdown pass to tie the game with 4:38 remaining and does a great job using his legs to pick up third-down conversions whenever they are available. 

Notre Dame is also fourth in average turnover margin (+1.1), which makes it even more impressive they beat Penn State after going down 10-0 and losing the turnover margin two to one. 

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Ohio State vs. Notre Dame pick: Ohio State -8.5

• My Pick: Ohio State Spread at -8.5 (-106) via FanDuel

Ohio State QB Will Howard was coaxed into a few mistakes in the CFP semifinal against Texas despite playing excellent in the first two rounds. The Irish do a terrific job defending against the pass but are only 28th in sack percentage, while Ohio State led the country. 

ND is also dealing with several key injuries, including a couple on the offensive line. It’s hard to see a world in which they can keep pace with a more talented team if they lose at the point of attack.

The public is nearly split down the middle on the spread. We will give the nod to Ohio State because of their level of talent and because we aren’t sure that Notre Dame will be able to score two touchdowns against one of the stingiest defenses in the country that is about to face arguably the worst offense it will have seen in the CFP.

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How to Watch Ohio State vs. Notre Dame

• When: Monday, Jan. 20 @ 7:30 p.m. ET

• Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA

• Watch: ESPN

Ohio State vs. Notre Dame Best Promos and Sportsbooks

Major online sportsbooks have Ohio State favored by 8-9.5 points.

Ohio State bettors will find the best deal at Caesars Sportsbook, where they are -8 (-110). Notre Dame bettors will want to turn to BetRivers, where they are +9.5 (-110).

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Ohio State vs. Notre Dame Injuries

Ohio State Injuries

• Seth McLaughlin (OL) - Out (Achilles)

• Josh Simmons (OL) - Out (knee)

Notre Dame Injuries

• Beaux Collins (WR) - Questionable (calf)

• Rocco Spindler (OL) - Questionable

• Antonie Knapp (OL) - Out (ankle)

• Cooper Flanagan (TE) - Out (foot)

• Ryle Mills (DL) - Out (knee)

• Benjamin Morrison (CB) - Out (hip)

• Boubacar Traore (DL) - Out (knee)

• Charles Jagusah (OL) - Out (chest)