Ohio State vs. Michigan State Picks, Predictions and Odds: Ohio to Make Statement in Conference Play

• Ohio State has won their first three games by a combined score of 157-20

• The Buckeyes are the new betting favorite to win the National Championship

• Michigan State’s offense ranks below the league average in Success Rate and Finishing Drives

After a dominant start to their year, the Ohio State Buckeyes enter Big Ten Conference play as the new betting favorite to win the National Championship. They will have a great opportunity to make a statement in their first conference game as they draw a favorable matchup against the lowly Michigan State Spartans as their offense ranks well below league average in Off Success Rate and Finishing Drives.

Ohio State vs. Michigan State Odds 

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Ohio State vs. Michigan State Pick

• My Pick: Ohio State -23.5 (-105) at FanDuel

With clear advantages on both sides of the ball, it’s no surprise the Ohio State Buckeyes opened as a sizable favorite against the Michigan State Spartans. Even with Michigan State being a step up in the quality of the opponent, the Buckeyes should face minimal resistance in their efforts to put up points on the board against a defense who ranks near dead last in Def Explosiveness. Factor in the Spartans' anemic offense having to face off against a stout Buckeyes defense and Ohio State should have no issue with generating a sizable lead.

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Ohio State vs. Michigan State Predictions 

Ohio State Predictions

After getting off to a slow start against Akron in the first half of their season opener, the Ohio State Buckeyes have looked every bit of a National Championship contender as they have made quick work of their first three opponents. Granted it was against low-level competition, yet it’s still worth noting how dominant Ohio State has been as they rank above league average in Success Rate, Explosiveness, Finishing Drives, and Havoc on both sides of the ball.

Their defense has been especially impressive as they rank top-15 in the same previously mentioned metrics while fielding elite-level production at all three levels of the field. Whether it’s defending against the pass or stopping the run, the Buckeyes have excelled at neutralizing opposing offensive production. With Michigan State’s offense struggling with moving the ball down the field at a consistent rate with below-league-average marks in Success Rate, it’s hard to envision how they will crack the Buckeyes defense.

On the other side of the field, Will Howard and the explosive Buckeyes pass attack will get the opportunity to air out the ball against a Spartans secondary who ranks near dead last in Def Pass Explosiveness and league average in Def Pass Success Rate and PPA. Their low metrics are especially alarming when factoring in the quality of offenses they have had to defend against, giving conviction that their marks are prone to slipping even more against a far better pass attack.

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Michigan State Predictions

While Michigan State is playing better than preseason projections, their results have been underwhelming as two of their wins have been by one score. A case can be made that they should also be 2-2 if it were not for a massive collapse by Maryland late in the fourth quarter.

Their pedestrian marks on offense are even more alarming when factoring in their low level of opponent, entering their contest against Ohio State ranked 84th in Off Success Rate, 107th in Finishing Drives, 55th in Explosiveness, and 56th in Havoc Allowed. Factor in an offensive line that grades out poorly and Michigan State will be prone to being pushed off the field in quick three and outs against the Buckeyes' pressure.

While their defense has fared far better in terms of advanced metrics, their secondary is still average at best as previously mentioned. That creates added stress to their front seven, most likely having to anchor their linebackers in place for more help in coverage. When backed off the line, that creates higher-quality rushing lanes for the Buckeyes' running backs to exploit to help sustain drives down the field. Expect the Spartans defense to struggle while their own offense fails to stay within the Buckeyes scoring pace.

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Ohio State vs. Michigan State How to Watch

• When: Saturday, September 28 at 7:30 PM ET

• Where: Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, Michigan

• Where to Watch: Peacock

Ohio State vs. Michigan State Best Promos and Sportsbooks

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Ohio State vs. Michigan State Injuries

Ohio State Injuries

• WR Reis Stocksdale - Questionable

• OL Devontae Armstrong - Questionable

Michigan State Injuries

• DB Chance Rucker - Doubtful

• OL Kristian Phillips - Doubtful

• WR Jaron Glover - Doubtful