Notre Dame vs. Penn State Picks, Predictions and Odds: Who Will Advance to the National Championship?

• Penn State’s only losses were against Ohio State and Oregon

• Notre Dame won 12 straight games since a Week 2 loss to Northern Illinois

• Neither team has made an appearance in a CFP national championship game

The No. 7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (13-1) will battle the No. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions (13-2) in the College Football Playoff semifinal for a spot in the national championship game.

The Irish arrived in the Notre Dame vs. Penn State semifinal by beating No. 10 Indiana 27-17 and No. 2 Georgia 23-10. Those represented their first wins in the history of the College Football Playoff and put them one win away from battling either Ohio State or Texas for a national title.

Penn State took out No. 11 SMU 38-10 and No. 3 Boise State 31-14 to earn their right to go to war with Notre Dame. They finished the regular season as the Big Ten runner-up and are hoping to use that experience to advance to the biggest game of the year.

Here, we will break down and make our favorite betting picks for the Notre Dame vs. Penn State CFP showdown.

Notre Dame vs. Penn State Odds 

Notre Dame is 11-2-1 (84.6 percent) against the spread, 10-2-1 (83.3 percent) ATS as a favorite, and 4-0 (100 percent) ATS at a neutral venue.

Penn State is 8-7 (53.3 percent) ATS, 0-2 (0 percent) ATS as an underdog, and 1-1 (50 percent) ATS at a neutral venue.  

Odds for Notre Dame vs Penn State matchup are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Sign up for an account and place your bets at FanDuel: Bet $5, Get $200 in Bonus Bets.

Notre Dame vs. Penn State Predictions 

We’re not going to bury the lede—this has the potential to be the best game of the entire college football season.

Both teams want to attack their matchups in the same manner. They want to leverage their physicality, make opposing offenses uncomfortable with their constant pressure and ability to dominate the point of attack, and control the tempo by dictating time of possession and relying on a strong running game.

Where the teams differ is in the explosiveness of their passing games. Penn State ranked 12th in yards per attempt (8.5) which, just for comparison, was only 0.1 behind Oregon and 0.7 behind Ohio State. Notre Dame was 85th at 6.9 yards per attempt.

A strong passing game helped propel the Nittany Lions to finish eighth in yards per play, while they were also sixth in yards allowed per play. They were also sixth in average scoring differential (+17.9) and only suffered losses to Ohio State and Oregon (in the Big Ten Championship Game), both coming by one score.

PSU quarterback Drew Allar has been in the headlines recently as many scouts allegedly believe he could be the first quarterback taken if he declares for the draft. The junior had a strong season but completed less than 60 percent of his passes in the first two rounds of the CFP and was at 60 percent or worse in the games against Ohio State and Oregon.

That could spell trouble against a Notre Dame defense that brings pressure at one of the highest rates in the country and that trusts its secondary in man coverage. The Irish ranked 23rd in percentage of pass plays that ended in sacks and allowed the lowest completion percentage in the country (50.6). 

The defense also checked in one spot above PSU in yards allowed per play at fifth (4.4), while the offense was 15th in yards per play. That was largely built on a running game that ranked second with 6.1 yards per carry, ahead of even Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty’s Boise State.

That said, ND struggled to find success on the ground against Georgia. Excluding quarterback Riley Leonard’s 14 carries for 80 yards, the team ran 23 times for 74 yards and no scores, while starter Jeremiyah Love aggravated a knee injury and was forced to leave early.

Where the Irish shone was on special teams as they returned a kickoff for a touchdown and audibled out of a punt to a would-be fourth-down conversion attempt, only to draw the Dawg offsides and earn a fresh set of downs.

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Notre Dame vs. Penn State My Pick

• My Pick: Notre Dame spread at -2.5 (-108) via FanDuel

There are several keys to victory here. For starters, Allar needs to complete his passes and keep the ball out of harm’s way against a Notre Dame team that finished second in turnover margin per game (+1.3). 

Leonard also needs to have the support of his running backs and to hold the PSU defense at bay with short and intermediate completions. Another day of 90 yards passing like he had against UGA will almost assuredly result in a loss.

PSU coach James Franklin is only 3-17 against top 10 opponents, whereas ND coach Marcus Freeman just outfoxed Kirby Smart and led his team to 12 straight wins. In many ways, the coaching matchup is just as important as any player-for-player showdown on the field.

Penn State has a greater ability to play from behind than Notre Dame does, but their consistency on the defensive line, Freeman’s wit, and their ability to dominate the tempo and time of possession lead us to believe that Notre Dame is the better bet.

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How to Watch Notre Dame vs. Penn State

• When: Thursday, Jan. 9 @ 7:30 p.m. ET

• Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL

• Watch: ESPN

Notre Dame vs. Penn State Best Promos and Sportsbooks

All major college football betting sites have Notre Dame favored by two or 2.5 points.

Notre Dame bettors will find the best deal at BetMGM, where they are -2 (-110). Penn State bettors will want to turn to Caesars Sportsbook where they are +2.5 (-110). Anyone who bets on Notre Dame vs. Penn State at FanDuel sportsbook can receive $200 in bonus bets just by placing a $5 wager.

More currently active betting promos can be found listed in the table below.

*Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l terms.

Notre Dame vs. Penn State Injuries

Notre Dame Injuries

• Benjamin Morrison (CB) - Out (hip)

• Cooper Flanagan (TE) - Out (foot)

• Rylie Mills (DL) - Out (knee)

Penn State Injuries

• Abdul Carter (DE) - Questionable (arm)

• Dani Dennis-Sutton (DE) - Questionable 

• A.J. Harris (CB) - Questionable

• Anthony Donkoh (OL) - Out (knee)

• KJ Winston (S) - Questionable

• Zuriah Fisher (DE) - Out