Michigan vs. USC Picks, Predictions and Odds: Can USC Take Down the Defending Champs?

• This is USC’s first conference game as a new member of the Big Ten

• Michigan lost its only matchup with a ranked team 31-12

• USC didn’t play last weekend and is 1-0 against ranked opponents

The defending champion Michigan Wolverines will host Lincoln Riley and the USC Trojans for a top-25 Big Ten showdown.

The Wolverines made the decision to pivot to Alex Orji at quarterback, benching Los Angeles native Davis Warren. UM is 2-1 but lost its only matchup with a ranked team, Texas, 31-12 on their home field.

USC is about to play its first conference game as a new member of the Big Ten. They took down No. 13 LSU 27-20 in their opener and look to have significantly improved their defense while remaining elite on offense. 

Here, we will break down the odds and share our favorite betting picks for the Michigan vs. USC top-25 showdown on Saturday.

No. 18 Michigan vs. No. 11 USC Odds 

Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook. Place your bets on this matchup and claim a bonus at FanDuel: Bet $5, Get $200 in Bonus Bets.

USC is a 5.5-point road favorite in the matchup. The teams haven’t crossed paths since they met in the Rose Bowl on January 1, 2007, a game that USC won 32-18.

Michigan vs. USC Predictions 

Michigan needed to make a change. Their offense wasn’t functioning at an elite level with Davis Warren (444 yards, two touchdowns, six interceptions in three games), nor were they holding onto the ball long enough to win the time of possession battle.

UM’s defense also isn’t anywhere near as deep as it was when they won the title last year. Their inability to extend drives forced the defense to spend more time on the field than they preferred, leading to them uncharacteristically bending in key moments. 

The early signs have been much more encouraging for USC. It’s never easy losing the first pick in the NFL Draft, but Miller Moss stepped in at quarterback seemingly without missing a beat. The Trojans currently rank 15th in yards per play, and Moss has a stat line of 607 yards and two touchdowns with no turnovers.

USC’s defense also did a complete 180-degree turn under new defensive coordinator “D’Anton” Lynn. They’re now 10th in defensive EPA per play after ranking near the bottom in nearly every defensive metric a year ago.

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Michigan vs. USC Pick

• My Pick: Michigan +5.5 (-106) at FanDuel

This matchup will serve as a litmus test for both teams.

For Michigan, putting Orji under center should help them return to their preferred identity of being physical and running the air out of the football. Orji hasn’t gotten many opportunities up to this point, but he’s 3/6 for 15 yards and two touchdowns and ran the ball 10 times for 58 yards. 

The hope is that Orji’s presence under center will bring the best out of Donovan Edwards, who only has 150 yards and averaged 4.2 yards per carry. Fellow running back Kalel Mullings is off to a great start with 270 yards and an average of 7.5 yards per carry.

On the other side, USC’s newfound defensive integrity will be put to the test. They can’t allow UM’s offensive line to win out and control the pace of play, especially since they already rank 72nd in average time of possession to Michigan’s 32nd.

Moss’ patience and accuracy are also going to be tested by the nation’s best cornerback, Will Johnson, who figures to draw the assignment of guarding Kyron Hudson. 

All in all, we like Michigan to cover the spread here. The transition to Orji will give the Wolverines a new look on offense and will test the discipline of the new-look Trojan defense. 

It still wouldn’t surprise us to see USC snag a win on the road, but Michigan is firmly in do-or-die status with the looming possibility of falling to 2-2 with games against Illinois, Oregon, and Ohio State still on the horizon. 

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How to Watch Michigan vs. USC

• When: Saturday, September 21 at 3:30 p.m. ET

• Where: Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI

• Watch: CBS

Michigan vs. USC Best Promos and Sportsbooks

Every major sportsbook offers odds for the Michigan vs. USC matchup on Saturday. Anyone who bets on this matchup at FanDuel Sportsbook can win $200 in bonus bets with a $5 wager. More sportsbook promos can be found in the table below.

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Michigan vs. USC Injuries

Michigan Injuries

• Colston Loveland (TE) - Questionable (Arm)

• Micah Pollard (LB) - Questionable

• Jaden Mangham (DB) - Questionable

• Tyler Morris (WR) - Questionable

• Rod Moore (DB) - Out (Knee)

USC Injuries

• Walter Matthews (TE) - Questionable

• Mason Cobb (LB) - Probable

• Jaylin Smith (DB) - Probable

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