Michigan vs. Maryland Betting Preview
Michigan is coming off a big Week 11 win over Penn State after ending the game with 30+ rushing attempts. Head coach Jim Harbaugh was hit with yet another suspension, and Sherrone Moore led the team to victory while quarterback J.J. McCarthy had less than ten pass attempts.
The Wolverines allow just 7.5 points per game and 9.3 over the past three games. Here, they’re taking on Maryland, who allows 24.2 points per game.
On defense, Maryland allows 118.6 rushing yards and 228.2 passing yards per game. Meanwhile, Michigan allows 134.6 passing yards and 98.3 rushing yards per game. The passing yardage total is the lowest in the country.
The Terrapins have allowed 98 pressures and 10 sacks this season, and here, they’ll take on a Michigan defense that has generated 174 pressures and 26 sacks this season.
Maryland has received solid quarterback play this season from Taulia Tagovailoa. He’s throwing for 2,778 yards, 22 touchdowns, and eight interceptions this year while completing 65.1% of his passes.
The Michigan defense is simply far too good for middling teams like Maryland to put up any sort of fight.
Michigan vs. Maryland Picks & Predictions
Michigan -19 (-110) at DraftKings
We touched on how dominant the Michigan defense is above, and Maryland doesn’t have the defense to stop the Wolverines from scoring. Michigan has the ability to run the ball constantly and still put up points while their defense holds teams to 10 points or less more often than not. The Wolverines have a 0.47 EPA per pass play and throw the ball on just 44.7% of their offensive snaps. They’ve played the 29th toughest schedule, per Pro Football Focus.
Maryland has gotten production from their quarterback, but Michigan will hold them to around 10 points or less, like almost every other team this season.
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Maryland Total Points Under 10.5 (+165) at DraftKings
Getting +165, it’s worth taking a swing on Maryland, finishing with 10 points or less. This season, there have only been two teams that have scored more than 10 points against Michigan—Purdue (13) and Penn State (15). These happened in the last two weeks, but we have plenty of evidence that shows how dominant this defense is, especially with the extra motivation of Harbaugh being out and trying to bolster their standing in the College Football Playoff rankings.
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Maryland Team Touchdowns: Under 1.5 (-105) at DraftKings
We’re already wagering that they’ll score 10 points or less, so with that, we’ll also add in one touchdown or less.
Again, Tagovailoa has played pretty well this year. He throws downfield quite often, with 16.9% of his attempts going 20+ yards. On those passes, he’s thrown for 748 yards, seven touchdowns, and one interception.
Michigan’s defense is tough, but it’s not unlikely that Tagovailoa will manage to get one in there. If not, we’re betting the under, so that’s even better.
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