LSU vs. Alabama Betting Preview
Heading into this matchup, LSU is 6-2 compared to Alabama’s 7-1. Alabama’s lone loss this year came in Week 2 against the Texas Longhorns, while LSU has lost to Florida State and Ole Miss. In their loss to Ole Miss, they put up 49 but gave up 55. The quarterback matchup here is certainly an intriguing one. LSU’s Jayden Daniels has been sensational this year, completing 163 of 228 passes (71.5% completion rate) for 2,572 yards, 25 touchdowns, and three interceptions. Meanwhile, the Crimson Tide are a bit more of a run-centric team. Quarterback Jalen Milroe, through seven games (he was benched in Week 3), has just 98 attempted (64.5% completion rate) for 1,619 yards, 13 touchdowns, and five picks.
On the ground, these players are also excellent. Daniel has 624 yards and five touchdowns; Milroe has 327 yards and five scores.
As offensive units, the Tigers are second in the country in points scored per game at 43.9, while Alabama is 40th at 30.6. Defensively, though, the Tide hold teams to 16.5 points per outing. At the same time, LSU is much more forgiving, ranking 84th in the country and allowing nearly 29 points per game.
Aside from the quarterbacks, each team has a go-to wide receiver. Admittedly, LSU’s a bit better in that department, though, with 2024 NFL Draft future first-rounder Mailk Nabers. The Crimson Tide does have a dependable option in Jermaine Burton, though.
The matchups to watch here are Nabers against Crimson Tide cornerback Terrion Arnold and this Alabama rushing attack against good run defenders like edge rusher Ovie Oghoufo and Mekhi Wingo. We’ll see if this Tigers pass rush can get anything going against the J.C. Latham-led Tide offensive line.
LSU vs. Alabama Picks & Predictions
Alabama ML (-148 at DraftKings)
While the Tigers have plenty of offense here with Daniels, Nabers, and running back Logan Diggs, the Crimson Tide have a far superior defense. Their defensive line includes several solid pass rushers. While LSU has Will Campbell at left tackle, and the rest of the offensive line has played relatively well this year (allowing seven sacks and 56 pressures), they’re going to face perhaps their most difficult defensive front to date. The Crimson Tide had 167 pressures and 33 sacks this season. Also, Nabers will do well here and score, but this is a coverage unit that has 16 pass breakups, seven interceptions and allows less than 65% of the targets thrown their way to be caught.
We don’t like the Tide here -3, but we do like the moneyline as their defense will do enough here to keep this LSU offense in check while Alabama has a great opportunity to break out offensively and at least meet their season average.
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Under 60.5 (-108 at DraftKings)
At 60.5, we’re opting for the under.
From the side of the Crimson Tide, their offense hasn’t been exceptional this season, but they’re facing quite a beatable defense. For the Tigers, their offense has been excellent, but this is their toughest defensive test yet.
We like the Tide to narrow out a victory here at home, 31-28. It’s going to be a close call, but the defense of the Tide is what will ultimately help push this game under.
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Alabama to Win by 1-6 (+275 at DraftKings)
This goes back to what we mentioned above: the Tide have a suitable offense, but it’s far from one of the best in the country. Meanwhile, the Tigers have weapons that will score eventually. This will be a narrow win should Alabama pull it off, which we think they do at home.
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