The Clemson Tigers are in first place in the ACC standings with a 5-0 conference record
Clemson’s front seven ranks 98th or worse in Def Rush Success Rate, PPA, and Explosiveness
Louisville’s offense ranks eighth overall in Havoc Allowed
While Louisville’s hopes of making the ACC Championship are slim, they can shake up the conference title race should they manage to upset the Clemson Tigers. Their metrics indicate it is certainly possible, especially while the Tigers' defense continues to struggle with playing at a competitive level as they rank well below league average in Def Success Rate, Finishing Drives, and Explosiveness.
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Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
---|---|---|---|
Louisville | +10.5 (-110) | +328 | Over 63 (-110) |
Clemson | -10.5 (-110) | -430 | Under 63 (-110) |
With Clemson’s defense struggling to defend at a competitive level, that allows the Cardinals' offense to stay within scoring pace as they should face minimal resistance in their efforts of moving the ball down the field. Especially when Louisville can burn the Tigers' defense through the air and on the ground as the Cardinals' offense enters the contest ranked top-20 in both Rush and Pass Success Rate. Factor in the Cardinals secondary being able to give Cade Klubnik fits and Clemson may be on upset alert.
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It’s been an unfortunate year for the Louisville Cardinals after a 3-2 start to conference play, especially when their metrics on both sides of the field indicate they have been playing very well. While an ACC Conference Championship berth is most likely out of their reach, the Cardinals can still seriously shake up the conference title picture should they be able to upset the Clemson Tigers on the road.
Their offense will have the opportunity to apply serious pressure to the Tigers as Clemson’s defense has been horrific eight weeks into the season. Heading into Saturday, the Tigers' defense as a whole ranks 100th overall in Def Success Rate, 101st in Explosiveness, and 111th in Finishing Drives. They do excel at creating disruptions as they rank 42nd in Havoc, yet that may prove to be futile as the Cardinals enter the contest ranked eighth overall in Havoc Allowed.
More intriguing yet for Louisville, they will have the opportunity to slash the number of Clemson’s offensive possessions by prolonging the time of their own drives with a heavy dose of the run. That has been the strength of the Cardinals' offense this year, now getting the opportunity to run wild against a Tigers front seven who ranks 98th in Def Rush Success Rate, 124th in Def Rush PPA, and 104th in Def Rush Explosiveness. With less possessions, Clemson will be hard-pressed to build up a lead over the Cardinals.
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While Clemson’s defense has been abysmal, their offense has been a different story as they enter the contest ranked top-50 in Off Success Rate, Finishing Drives, and Havoc Allowed. Cade Klubnik has been very efficient in the pocket this season, throwing for 1,836 passing yards, 20 touchdowns, and just 3 interceptions. Every bit of his production will be needed as he is set to face off against a Cardinals secondary that ranks top-30 in Def Pass Success Rate, PPA, and Explosiveness.
With Clemson’s pass attack expected to regress against a lockdown coverage unit, the Tigers' best path for success may be by abusing the run. While Louisville’s front seven does grade out well in Def Rush Success Rate and PPA, they are prone to giving up sizable gains throughout their contests as they also rank 120th in Explosiveness. With Phil Mafah averaging over six yards per carry, the Tigers running back may see an uptick in carries as the focal point of their offense.
Unfortunately for Clemson, solely relying on Rush Explosiveness may not be enough to pull away from the Cardinals on the scoreboard. Especially if Louisville’s secondary can hold their own in single coverage against the injury-riddled Tigers pass catchers to allow their own linebackers to stack the box. With no clear path for consistent offensive production, Saturday’s highly anticipated ACC contest may be closer than the spread implies.
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When: Saturday, November 2, 7:30 p.m. ET
Where: Memorial Stadium, Clemson, South Carolina
Where to Watch: ESPN
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RB Maurice Turner - Questionable
WR Jimmy Calloway - Questionable
OL Monroe Mills - Questionable
WR Bryant Wesco - Questionable
WR Tyler Brown Jr - Out
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