Iowa vs. Ohio State Picks, Predictions and Odds: Regression Looms Large Over the Buckeyes Offense

• Ohio State’s defense held Michigan State to just seven total points in their Big Ten opener

• The Buckeyes are the betting favorites to win the National Championship

• Both Ohio State and Iowa are currently undefeated in conference play

After skating past Michigan State in their NCAAF Big Ten opener, the Ohio State Buckeyes offense now faces their toughest test to date with the Iowa Hawkeyes defense on deck. While Iowa does not possess the same dominant defensive metrics that we have been accustomed to over the past few years, they still field a formidable unit who can slow down the vaunted Buckeyes offense.

Iowa vs. Ohio State Odds

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Iowa vs. Ohio State My Pick

• My Pick: Under 45.5 (-110) at BetMGM

With the Buckeyes offense poised to regress, Saturday’s Big Ten contest between the Ohio State Buckeyes and Iowa Hawkeyes may feature a minimal amount of scoring opportunities. Especially with Iowa’s offense still struggling with generating consistent offensive production, now having to find answers in a pinch against one of the best defensive units in the nation. Barring a havoc-minded play, expect early outs and plenty of field flipping punts in a low-scoring affair.

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Iowa vs. Ohio State Predictions

Iowa Preview

After finishing last year ranked near dead last across the board in Off Success Rate, Explosiveness, Finishing Drives, and Havoc Allowed, the Iowa Hawkeyes fired Brian Ferentz and hired Tim Lester as their new offensive coordinator. Their much-needed coaching change has resulted in immediate success as the Hawkeyes offense enters week six ranked 41st in Off Success Rate and 39th in Havoc Allowed.

The issue that still plagues Iowa’s offense is their inability to capitalize on their scoring opportunities as the Hawkeyes still rank 88th in Finishing Drives. Their struggles in the red zone will continue to be a thorn in their side as they now face off against a Buckeyes defense who ranks first overall in Def Finishing Drives. With no threat of explosiveness through the air, Ohio State’s corners can press up on their receivers while throwing extra bodies in the middle to contain the Hawkeyes running backs in the trenches.

Speaking of Iowa’s ground game, that continues to be the Hawkeyes' main source of offensive production as they call the run at the 30th heaviest rate while generating above league average marks in Rush Success Rate and PPA. Abusing the run will be the Hawkeyes' best chance of securing the upset as it allows them to potentially keep the score tight by draining the clock while simultaneously limiting the total number of Ohio State’s offensive possessions.

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Ohio State Preview

After the latest result against the Michigan State Spartans in their Big Ten opener, Ohio State has now won their first four contests by a combined score of 195-27. A dominant level of play for the new National Championship betting favorites, yet one that comes with an asterisk as they have yet to face off against a productive defense. That changes this weekend as the Iowa Hawkeyes defense ranks top-50 in Def Success Rate, Explosiveness, Finishing Drives, and Havoc.

While not exactly the same dominant level of defensive play that we have seen in years past, the Iowa Hawkeyes are still capable of slowing down the Buckeyes offense in the middle of the field. Especially with Will Howard struggling to stretch out opposing secondaries through the air as Ohio State currently ranks 61st overall in Pass Play Explosiveness. To make matters worse for Howard, Iowa also excels at smothering the short throw as the Hawkeyes defense ranks 36th in Def Pass Success Rate.

Should Howard struggle to pick apart the Hawkeyes' coverage, then that may force the Buckeyes' offense to call a heavier dose of the run to command defensive attention toward the middle to help open up higher-quality passing lanes. Unfortunately for Ohio State, generating rush production will be equally as tough to come by as Iowa’s defense ranks first overall in Def Rush Explosiveness. With no clear path for downfield success, expect Ohio State’s offense to struggle with getting into scoring territory at a consistent rate.

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How to Watch Iowa vs. Ohio State

• When: Saturday, October 5 at 3:30 PM ET

• Where: Ohio Stadium, Columbus, Ohio

• Watch: CBS

Iowa vs. Ohio State Best Promos and Sportsbooks

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Iowa vs. Ohio State Injuries

Iowa Injuries

• LB Jayden Montgomery - Out

• WR Seth Anderson - Out

Ohio State Injuries

• WR Reis Stocksdale - Questionable

• OL Devontae Armstrong - Questionable

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