Indiana vs. Notre Dame Picks, Predictions and Odds: Is an Upset Brewing for the Hoosiers?

• This is the first time Indiana won double-digit games in a season

• Notre Dame is 0-2 in CFP appearances

• The teams ranked first and third in average scoring margin

The 12-team College Football Playoff is blending tradition with innovation—history with the cutting edge.

In a perfect representation of that drastic dichotomy, Indiana, the new kids on the block, will take on Notre Dame, one of the most storied programs in the sport, in the 7-10 first-round matchup.

The Hoosiers waltzed into the playoff with only one loss, to Ohio State, on their record. That’s despite coach Curt Cignetti, quarterback Kurtis Rourke, and the vast majority of their starters having just this year transferred in from lower-level or FCS programs.

Notre Dame also lost just one game all season, a 16-14 shocker at home against Northern Illinois. They scored ranked wins over Texas A&M, Navy, and Army, and are out to protect their rich legacy in an era defined by constant change and evolution.

Here, we will analyze the Indiana vs. Notre Dame College Football Playoff matchup and share our favorite betting picks for the contest.  

Indiana vs. Notre Dame Odds 

Indiana went 9-3 (75 percent) against the spread with an average performance of +14.2 points relative to the spread. They were also 3-1 (75 percent) ATS on the road.

Notre Dame went 9-2-1 (81.8 percent) ATS and was an average of +11 points ATS. They also went 3-2-1 (60 percent) ATS at home.

Odds for the Indiana vs Notre Dame matchup are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Sign up for an account and place your bets at FanDuel: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets if Your Bet Wins.

Indiana vs. Notre Dame Predictions 

To understand the impact that Cignetti had in his first year at IU, we must turn to the past.

The Indiana football team hadn’t won double-digit games in a season since…ever. They had two winning seasons since 1994 and finished the previous year 3-9 (1-8 against the Big Ten).

Cignetti did not shy away from public attention when he arrived from James Madison last November. He called out the school’s in-state rival, Purdue, in his first address to game-attending Indiana basketball fans and regularly said he took the job to compete with Michigan and Ohio State for the conference throne (now held by Oregon).

His talk did not prove to be for nothing. Indiana finished second in average scoring (40.3) and sixth in points allowed per game (15.7), resulting in the third-best average scoring margin (+24.5) in the nation. They were also ninth in net EPA per play and second in overall offensive efficiency, only trailing Miami with an estimated overperformance of .131 points per offensive play.

QB Kurtis Rourke, an Ohio transfer, completed 70.4 percent of his passes and racked up 29 total touchdowns with just four interceptions. IU also ran the ball for 2,083 yards and 37 touchdowns, led by backs Justice Ellison and Ty Son Lawton.

Indiana’s greatest defensive asset is its stout run defense, which allowed an average of 2.6 yards per carry and kept Ohio State below four yards per carry. 

Not to be outdone, they ranked ninth with an average of 5.8 yards allowed per pass attempt and were fifth in turnover differential per game (+1.1). They were also 16th in third-down conversion percentage (46.3) and 10th in third-down conversion percentage allowed (31.9).

Third-year Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman and the Irish enter the matchup under completely different pretenses but with the same ambition to prove they belong with the perennial heavyweights. 

Freeman has a career head coaching record of 30-9, and this will be his first time leading a team into the CFP. Notre Dame also has two CFP appearances, both of which ended in losses in the semifinal of the four-team bracket (Clemson in 2018, Alabama in 2021).

A loss to unranked NIU in the Irish’s second game of the season made them the butt of the joke for the national media and seemed like a kiss of death for their playoff prospects. But while many teams would have collapsed, ND ripped off 10 straight wins to finish the season 11-1.

Notre Dame ranked third in average points scored (39.8) and allowed (13.6) per game. They were in the top 10 in offensive and defensive yards per play, led by their rushing offense (6.3 yards per carry - second) and passing defense (5.6 yards allowed per attempt - second).

They were fourth in net EPA per play largely thanks to their defense, which allowed an average of .147 fewer points than expected per play.

Like Indiana, they also excelled at executing within the margins. They were second in turnover differential per game (+1.3) and fifth in third-down conversion percentage allowed (30.4), though they were below the national average for third-down conversion rate (38 percent). 

That partly speaks to the limitations of QB Riley Leonard, who had a near-even split with 16 passing TDs and 14 rushing TDs. Leonard works well when he is supported by the running game but did not throw for more than 229 yards in a game and only attempted more than 30 passes once after he did in each of his first two games of the season.

Regardless, it’s a testament to the Irish’s balance and ability that they were able to finish the year as strongly as they did. 

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Indiana vs. Notre Dame My Pick

• My Pick: Indiana Spread +7.5 (-110) at FanDuel

Indiana’s offense looked lifeless, discombobulated, and outmatched when it lined up across from Ohio State, but it’s important to remember that’s exactly how it should have looked. 

The players on the roster had never faced that level of competition, that environment, or expectations, and they will be better for it. IU’s defense also played a pretty great game and was let down by the special teams.

Notre Dame did not face a team better than Texas A&M, and that was in the first game of the season. Simple brand bias would suggest that Indiana is the team with something to prove, but in reality, it’s Notre Dame that is more of an unknown commodity in this matchup.

The Irish deserve credit for stomping Army and Navy late in the season, but Indiana should also be praised for earning 10 of its 11 wins by at least 14 points, even if they did not beat a ranked opponent all year.

The importance of quality coaching increases significantly during matchups that appear to be as close as this one does. Neither coach has done anything to suggest that they aren’t the man for the future at their respective schools, but Cignetti made a greater initial impact, and Freeman by far had the worst loss of the two. Indiana also outscored its opponents by an average of 8.2 points in the fourth quarter, while Notre Dame outscored them by an average of 4.2 points during the same period.

This should be a thrilling matchup, but laying more than a touchdown with either team would be unfair. We believe Indiana has a strong chance to win this game, and they’re our pick on the spread.

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How to Watch Indiana vs. Notre Dame

• When: Friday, Dec. 20 at 8:00 p.m. ET

• Where: Notre Dame Stadium, Notre Dame, IN

• Watch: ABC/ESPN

Indiana vs. Notre Dame Best Promos and Sportsbooks

All major online sportsbooks have Notre Dame favored by seven or 7.5 points.

Indiana bettors will find the best deal at FanDuel and ESPN Bet, where they are +7.5 (-110). Notre Dame bettors will want to turn to DraftKings, where they are -7 (-112).

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Indiana vs. Notre Dame Injuries

Indiana Injuries

• Jamier Johnson (DB) - Questionable

• Drew Evans (OL) - Out

• Vince Fiacable (OL) - Out

Notre Dame Injuries

• Kyngstonn Viliamu-A in sa (LB) - Questionable (knee)

• Benjamin Morrison (CB) - Out (hip)

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