The Oregon Ducks are the new number one team in the AP top-25 poll
Ducks quarterback Dillon Gabriel is climbing back up the oddsboard for the Heisman
Illinois’s defense ranks 60th overall in Def Success Rate and 76th in Havoc
Since joining the Big Ten this season, the Oregon Ducks have been dominant as they are currently undefeated in conference play. One of their wins came against Ohio State who entered the year as the betting favorite to win the Big Ten Conference Championship, giving them a much needed tiebreaker over the Buckeyes to help strengthen their chances of making it to the finale. Oregon now has the opportunity to continue their run in the Big Ten, taking advantage of an Illinois defense who struggles to defend when in the middle of the field.
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Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
---|---|---|---|
Illinois | +21 (-105) | +900 | Over 54.5 (-110) |
Oregon | -21 (-115) | -1600 | Under 54.5 (-110) |
My Pick: Oregon -21 (-115) at BetMGM
After beating the Buckeyes in what may have been a preview of the Big Ten Conference Championship, the Ducks maintained their high level of play in a 35-0 win over Purdue. They now get the opportunity to knock Illinois back down to reality with clear advantages on both sides of the ball, especially with the Fighting Illini failing to exploit the Ducks struggles with stopping the run.
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Entering the year projected to finish in the middle of the Big Ten standings, Illinois has gotten off to a 6-1 start and are fourth in the conference standings with a 3-1 record. With a massive matchup against Oregon this weekend, Illinois has the opportunity to shake up the conference championship picture should they manage to upset the current Big Ten betting favorites. Unfortunately for Illinois, oddsmakers have tempered their expectations of them pulling it off by listing the Fighting Illini as a +21 underdog.
In order for Illinois to generate the upset, they will need to neutralize the Ducks offensive production when in the middle of the field to help keep Oregon out of scoring territory. That spells potential disaster for the Fighting Illini as the Ducks have thrived with staying ahead of the sticks as they possess high marks in Off Success Rate and Finishing Drives while Illinois ranks 60th overall in Def Success Rate. Defending against the pass has especially been an issue as Illinois ranks 79th in Def Pass Success Rate.
That indicates Dillon Gabriel should have no issue with picking apart the gaps in Illinois’s coverage, putting Oregon in a favorable position to consistently move the ball down the field. To make matters worse for Illinois, their offense will struggle to stay within Oregon’s scoring pace as their one dimensional pass attack directly combats against the Ducks top-25 marks in Def Pass Success Rate and Def Pass PPA.
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Over the past few weeks of the season, Dillon Gabriel has shown signs of why he was listed as the preseason betting favorite for the Heisman award as he has generated a completion percentage of 77.0% while throwing for 2,080 yards, 15 touchdowns, and just 4 interceptions. With his high level of play under center, the Ducks pass attack currently ranks top-25 in Pass Success Rate and PPA.
Heading into Saturday’s top-25 matchup against Illinois, Gabriel will have the opportunity to maintain his high level of play as the Fighting Illini’s secondary struggles in coverage as previously mentioned. Oregon will also have the opportunity to open up higher quality passing lanes by generating consistent rush production as Illinois’s front seven ranks 58th in Def Rush Success Rate and 63rd in Def Rush PPA.
Speaking of rush production, Oregon’s front seven has continued to struggle with stopping the run as they enter the contest ranked 59th in Def Rush Success Rate, 120th in Def Rush PPA, and 131st in Def Rush Explosiveness. Luckily for the Ducks, rush production has been practically non-existent for Illinois as they currently rank 90th overall in Rush Success Rate and 91st in Rush Explosiveness.
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When: Saturday, October 26th
Where: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, Oregon
Where to Watch: CBS
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OL Magnus Moller - Questionable
LB Daniel Brown - Questionable
WR Traeshon Holden - Questionable
DE Jordan Busch - Questionable
TE Terrance Ferguson - Questionable
OL Matthew Bedford - Questionable
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