Georgia’s defense has held their first two opponents to a combined six points
Kentucky lost to South Carolina last weekend 31-6 as a sizable favorite
The Georgia Bulldogs odds to win the National Championship have continued to grow
Since entering the year listed as the betting favorite to win the National Championship, the Georgia Bulldogs have looked every bit the part as they have won their first two contests against Clemson and Tennessee Tech by a combined score of 82-6. As for Kentucky, they suffered one of the more embarrassing losses of the season after losing to South Carolina 31-6 as a -10 point favorite. With minimal offensive production from Kentucky, expect Georgia to get out to an early lead in the contest.
Odds provided by Caesars Sportsbook. Use our promo code WSN1000 and get up to $1,000 back in the form of bonus bets at Caesars.
Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
---|---|---|---|
Georgia | -13.5 (-110) | -1100 | Over 23.5 (-125) |
Kentucky | +13.5 (-110) | +700 | Under 23.5 (+105) |
My Pick: Georgia -13.5 (-110) at Caesars
With an inability to move the ball down the field at a consistent rate, the Kentucky Wildcats are in serious jeopardy of getting decimated by the Georgia Bulldogs. Georgia has looked every bit of a national title contender this season, limiting both facets of opposing offensive production while boasting elite marks in Off Success Rate and Finishing Drives. With Alabama on deck after a bye week, bet Georgia to cover the first-half spread of -13.5 with expectations of them calling off the dogs in the second half.
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Since getting snubbed from the playoffs last season, the Bulldogs' revenge tour has witnessed them decimate their first two opponents in dominant fashion. They have looked especially impressive on the offensive side of the ball as the Bulldogs currently rank top three in Off Success Rate and Finishing Drives. Heisman Trophy contender Carson Beck has led the onslaught, finishing his first two outings throwing for 520 passing yards, 7 passing touchdowns, and zero interceptions.
Against Kentucky’s defense, Beck will be in a position to continue to thrive as the Wildcats secondary has struggled in coverage. While they have excelled at limiting Pass Play Explosiveness, that will prove to be minimal as Georgia’s pass attack relies on quick throws to get their playmakers out in the open field. That spells potential doom for Kentucky’s defense as they rank 112th in Def Pass Success Rate.
With an opportunity to move the ball down the field at a consistent rate, it will be up to Georgia’s defense to secure the first-half cover. With Kentucky’s offense struggling to limit Havoc, Georgia’s front seven will be in a position to potentially flip the field by crashing the pocket and forcing Brock Vandagriff to throw into low-quality passing lanes. Vandagriff has struggled to take care of the ball in two straight contests against far inferior defenses, now having to go against one of the best coverage units in the nation.
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It was an embarrassing performance against the Gamecocks last weekend, losing to South Carolina 31-6 while generating only 183 total yards of offense. Their pass production was practically non-existent as Brock Vandagriff and Gavin Wimsatt combined for a total of 44 passing yards and two interceptions while failing to find the endzone. Their offense fared slightly better on the ground, yet it was not enough to avoid the upset.
Against Georgia’s defense, Kentucky’s pass attack will once again struggle to generate any sort of production as they are severely outmatched against the Bulldogs elite secondary. In two games played, Georgia already boasts elite marks in coverage as their secondary ranks 4th in Def Pass PPA, 9th in Def Pass Success Rate, and 19th in Def Pass Explosiveness.
In terms of metrics, Georgia’s defense does regress when having to defend against the run as they rank 52nd in Def Rush Success Rate and 78th in Explosiveness. The issue for Kentucky is that Georgia’s back end can anchor in single coverage against the Wildcats' anemic pass attack, allowing their linebackers to crash down the line to help give their defensive front run support. With no clear path for success on offense, expect the Wildcats to find themselves comfortably down on the scoreboard in a flash.
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When: Saturday, September 14 at 7:30 p.m. ET
Where: Kroger Field, Lexington, Kentucky
Where to Watch: ABC
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Georgia Injury
TE Oscar Delp - Questionable
DE Mykel Williams - Out
RB Roderick Robinson II - Questionable
Kentucky Injury
RB Chip Trayanum - Questionable
TE Josh Kattus - Questionable
CB DJ Waller - Questionable
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