The Colorado Buffaloes are the new betting favorite to win the Big 12 Conference Championship
Kansas gave the BYU Cougars their first loss of the season last weekend
The Jayhawks defense ranks top-50 in Def Success Rate, Explosiveness, Finishing Drives, and Havoc
Since an unfortunate start to the year that featured plenty of one score losses, the Kansas Jayhawks have shown signs of why they were listed as one of the betting favorites to win the Big 12 Conference Championship after giving the BYU Cougars their first loss of the season. They now have the opportunity to take down the new betting favorite for the Big 12 conference title as they are set to face off against the Colorado Buffaloes.
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Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
---|---|---|---|
Colorado | -2.5 (-115) | -135 | Over 59.5 (-110) |
Kansas | +2.5 (-105) | +115 | Under 59.5 (-110) |
My Pick: Kansas Moneyline (+115) at BetMGM
With positive regression finally on the Jayhawks' side, they have looked like one of the best teams in the Big 12 after beating the Iowa State Cyclones and BYU Cougars in their last two weeks of play. Their metrics have backed up their success as the Jayhawks grade out well in Success Rate, Finishing Drives, and Havoc on both sides of the field. Against Colorado, the Jayhawks offense should have no issue with getting into the red zone while setting a scoring pace too fast for the Buffaloes to keep up with.
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After a 6-1 start to conference play, the Colorado Buffaloes are in full control of their own destiny in regard to securing a berth for the Big 12 Conference Championship. A shocking feat for a team who entered the year with a regular season win total of 5.5, yet the Buffaloes have managed to blow past their preseason projections off the play of Shedeur Sanders and the current front-runner for the Heisman award Travis Hunter.
Unfortunately for Colorado, negative regression looms large as their advanced metrics do not support the success they have had this season. Especially on offense, as the Buffaloes enter the weekend ranked 80th overall in Off Explosiveness, 87th in Finishing Drives, and 100th in Havoc Allowed. They have managed to excel when in the middle of the field as their above league average mark in Success Rate indicates, yet consistently capitalizing on their scoring opportunities continues to be an issue.
Against Kansas, the Buffaloes one dimensional offense will be prone to stalling out as they face off against a defense who ranks top-50 across the board in Def Success Rate, Explosiveness, Finishing Drives, and Havoc. Especially with the Jayhawks excelling in coverage as that directly combats against what the Buffaloes want to do as they call the pass at the heaviest rate in the nation.
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Not only have the Jayhawks' defense played at a high level, but their offense has also rounded back into form as that side of the ball currently ranks top-20 in Off Success Rate and Finishing Drives. Generating Explosiveness has still been a struggle, but the Jayhawks have had no issue with creating methodical drives down the field for points on the board.
Heading into the weekend, the Jayhawks offense will have the opportunity to maintain their high marks on offense as they face off against a Buffaloes defense who struggles with limiting opposing offensive production. As of writing, Colorado ranks 64th overall in Def Success Rate, 64th in Havoc, and 100th in Explosiveness. Their low mark in Def Explosiveness will prove to be detrimental as it will allow the Jayhawks to connect on the big play at a higher rate.
With Colorado struggling to defend against either area of the offense, the Jayhawks quarterback Jalon Daniels may be in for a big game as his dual-threat ability will create added stress to the second level of the Buffaloes' defense. Should Colorado anchor their linebackers in an attempt to slow down his running ability, then that will create gaps in coverage outside the numbers and higher-quality passing lanes for Daniels to exploit.
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When: Saturday, November 23, 3:30 p.m. ET
Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
Where to Watch: FOX
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Colorado Buffaloes Injuries
WR Jimmy Horn - Questionable
CB Preston Hodge - Questionable
DL Shane Cokes - Questionable
DT Rayyan Buell - Questionable
RB Micah Welch - Questionable
Kansas Jayhawks Injuries
WR Lawrence Arnold - Questionable
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