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College Football Bowl Projections: The CFP Starts on Friday

Contributors
Updated December 17, 2024
15 min read

The inaugural College Football Playoff begins on Friday with Indiana and Notre Dame. The two in-state teams will battle in prime time for a ticket to the College Football Playoff quarterfinal. 

The first round continues on Saturday with three more games. The CFP makes this week massive for the sport, but we also kick off the start of bowl games with power conference teams on Tuesday. 

We’ve targeted picks for every game on FanDuel Sportsbook. The platform currently offers new customers a bet $5 and get $150 in bonus bets if your wager wins promo. This is a great promo to kick off the college football postseason. Let’s get into our bowl projections for every matchup!

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College Football Bowl Projections 2024 Picks

Frisco Bowl: #25 Memphis (-4.5, O/U 58.5) vs West Virginia - December 17

Memphis (10-2) will have one of their toughest season challenges against West Virginia (6-6). While West Virginia has no winning record, they have played a demanding Big 12 schedule.

One of our favorite bowl projections is West Virginia to win outright as a slight underdog.

Boca Raton Bowl: James Madison (-6.5, O/U 51.5) vs Western Kentucky - December 18

James Madison (8-4)  is in the beginning of a strong run amongst mid-major programs. They have a great sophomore quarterback in Alonza Barnett III, and if he stays with the team, they should cruise to win in the Boca Raton Bowl over Western Kentucky (8-5)

LA Bowl: California (-1.5, O/U 51.5) vs #24 UNLV - December 18

California (6-6) played their first season in the ACC, and they snuck into a bowl game. UNLV (10-3) has a talented roster, but we’re leaning toward the Golden Bears for our bowl projection on December 18. 

If California can tame UNLV quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams, they will be successful. 

New Orleans Bowl: Georgia Southern (-5.5, O/U 48.5) vs Sam Houston State - December 19

The spread for the New Orleans Bowl has quickly moved in Georgia Southern’s favor since opening against Sam Houston State (9-3). The Eagles are approaching a touchdown favorite, but we have targeted the other side of the line for our bowl projections. 

JC French can’t be trusted as a quarterback, so we’re taking the points with the Bearkats. 

Cure Bowl: Ohio (-3.5, O/U 54.5) vs Jacksonville State - December 20

Ohio (10-3) hasn’t been tested like Jacksonville State (9-4). The Gamecocks won Conference USA this season and have beaten strong programs like Sam Houston State. 

Conference USA was more potent than the MAC this season, so we like the underdog plus the points. 

Gasparilla Bowl: Florida (-14.5, O/U 49.5) vs Tulane - December 20

While we expect many Florida players to hit the transfer portal before their game against Tulane (9-4), the Gators have a lot of momentum heading into this game and beyond. One of the most significant mismatches in our bowl projections is this game, and we’re laying the points with the Gators. 

DJ Lagway will play in this contest and be the quarterback at the University of Florida for years to come. 

College Football Playoff First Round: #7 Notre Dame (-7.5, O/U 51.5) vs #8 Indiana - December 20

Indiana is 11-1, but they’re not fit for the College Football Playoff. Our bowl projections had Indiana facing Notre Dame (11-1), which came to fruition once the bracket was set. 

Considering this game is in South Bend, and the Irish have an elite run game, we see them advancing easily. 

College Football Playoff First Round: #4 Penn State (-8.5, O/U 53.5) vs #10 SMU - December 21

SMU was sweating its College Football Playoff berth through the final bowl projections. However, they lost in the ACC Championship, which risked their chances of making the field of 12. 

While they made the field, they should have an early exit. Drew Allar and company will lead the Nittany Lions to a commanding win. 

College Football Playoff First Round: #3 Texas (-11.5, O/U 51.5) vs #12 Clemson - December 21

Texas (11-2) lost in the SEC Championship, giving them the fifth overall seed in the final bowl projections. They will face #12 Clemson, who snuck into the field after winning the ACC Championship. 

Clemson has some bad losses, and they don’t have many marquee wins, but they’re better than their record shows. The spread is too large for us to trust the Longhorns. 

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College Football Playoff First Round: #6 Ohio State (-7.5, O/U 46.5) vs #7 Tennessee - December 21

Ryan Day and the Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2) need a win after losing to Michigan to end the season. The Buckeyes had a great season, but it’s tarnished because of the loss to the Wolverines. 

Look for Will Howard and Ohio State to take their frustration out on Tennessee (10-2) and pull away late to cover the spread. 

Myrtle Beach Bowl: UTSA (-8.5 O/U 555.5) vs Coastal Carolina - December 23

Coastal Carolina (6-6) is getting 6.5 points in the Myrtle Beach Bowl against UTSA (6-6). They are a better team in our latest bowl projections, so getting 6.5 points is a solid deal. 

If quarterback Ethan Vasko can limit his turnovers, the Chanticleers can win this game outright. 

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Northern Illinois (-2.5, O/U 40.5) vs Fresno State - December 23

Fresno State (6-6) is a slight underdog to NIU (7-5) in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. The Bulldogs have struggled to run the ball all season and consistently turn it over through the air. 

Gavin Williams has averaged 5.5 yards per carry for Northern Illinois, and he should lift his team to a victory. 

Hawaii Bowl: San Jose State (-4.5, O/U 61.5) vs South Florida - December 24

San Jose State (7-5) and USF (6-6) have inconsistent quarterback play, which should make the Hawaii Bowl very interesting. The team that wins this game will be the one that runs the football most effectively. 

The Bulls have a very good senior running back in Kelley Joiner. He has carried the ball 110 times for 766 yards and 11 touchdowns, averaging seven yards per carry. 

GameAbove Sports Bowl: Pittsburgh (-7.5, O/U 51.5) vs Toledo - December 26

The strength of a team’s schedule matters, and we should see this come into play in the GameAbove Sports Bowl. Pittsburgh is 7-5 and a nine-point favorite in the bowl game against Toledo (7-5). 

Their ACC schedule should show in this contest, especially behind their star players, like wide receiver Konata Mumpfield, who had 52 catches for 813 yards. 

Rate Bowl: Kansas State (-6.5 O/U 50.5) vs Rutgers - December 26

Rutgers (7-5) and Kansas State (8-4) have strong quarterbacks, which should make for a fun Rate Bowl. If we had to trust one of the gunslingers, we’re going with Avery Johnson for the Wildcats. 

He has thrown for 2,517 yards, 22 touchdowns, and nine interceptions. He was excellent against non-conference opponents, and he should continue this trend in the postseason. 

68 Ventures Bowl: Bowling Green (-6.5, O/U 49.5) vs Arkansas State - December 26

Arkansas State (7-5) isn’t receiving enough respect heading into the 68 Ventures Bowl. The Red Wolves are 7-5 and have played tough teams like Iowa State and Michigan. 

Their 10-point loss to Michigan should help them be competitive against Bowling Green. 

Armed Forces Bowl: Oklahoma (-7.5, O/U 46.5) vs Navy - December 27

While Oklahoma (6-6) and Navy (8-3) play in contrasting conferences, they have similar styles. Oklahoma and Navy want to run the football, and play excellent defense. 

We anticipate Navy’s roster staying more concrete as the transfer portal opens, helping them cover the spread as an underdog. 

Birmingham Bowl: Georgia Tech (-2.5, O/U 51.5) vs Vanderbilt - December 27

Based on the latest bowl projections, Vanderbilt (7-5) vs. Georgia Tech (6-6) is among our favorite games. While the SEC is king, the ACC Yellow Jackets have the edge. 

Haynes King was fantastic in his last game against Georgia, and he should carry this into the Birmingham Bowl.

Liberty Bowl: Arkansas (-1.5, O/U 55.5) vs Texas Tech - December 27

Taylen Green and the Arkansas Razorbacks (6-6) will play Texas Tech (8-4) in the Liberty Bowl. Green was fantastic this season for Arkansas and should control the Red Raiders throughout the contest. 

As long as Green limits his turnovers, Arkansas should cruise to a cover in the Liberty Bowl. 

Holiday Bowl: #21 Syracuse (-10.5, O/U 59.5) vs Washington State - December 27

The Syracuse Orange (9-3) have been one of the biggest surprises of the 2024 season. They knocked off Miami after falling behind 21-0 at home. 

We anticipate Kyle McCord and the passing offense to be elite against Washington State (8-4) and cover the spread. 

Las Vegas Bowl: Texas A&M (-3.5, O/U 51.5) vs USC - December 27

USC (6-6) will begin their season where it started: Las Vegas. The Trojans are a slight underdog in this game, but they have an edge in the latest bowl projections. 

Rookie quarterback Marcell Reed has struggled for the Aggies in high-pressure games, and this is a big spot. 

Fenway Bowl: North Carolina (-2.5, O/U 56.5) vs UConn - December 28

North Carolina (6-6) has ended the Mack Brown era, and he won’t coach in their bowl game against UConn (8-4). UConn was 8-4, but all four losses came against ACC teams. 

While North Carolina isn’t great and is in a transitional period, the Tar Heels are better.

Pinstripe Bowl: Nebraska (-2.5, O/U 45.5) vs Boston College - December 28

Nebraska (6-6) was expected to be a legitimate Big Ten competitor this season, but freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola struggled at times. Raiola will eventually be one of the best quarterbacks in the country, and he should take a step forward against Boston College (7-5) after a month of practice. 

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New Mexico Bowl: TCU (-12.5, O/U 61.5) vs Louisiana - December 28

Louisiana-Lafayette has posted a strong record this season at 10-3. However, they lost to Marshall 31-3 in the Sun Belt Championship, and this could be another one of those games against TCU in the New Mexico Bowl. 

TCU (8-4) is a 9.5-point favorite, and we’re laying the points with the Horned Frogs. 

Pop-Tarts Bowl: #18 Iowa State (-3.5, O/U 55.5) vs #13 Miami - December 28

Iowa State (10-3) was expected to make the College Football Playoff in some bowl projections. However, Arizona State beat them into submission in the Big 12 Championship. 

As bad as they were, they should take care of Miami, as Cam Ward is expected to opt out of the bowl game to prepare for the NFL Draft.

Arizona Bowl: Miami Ohio (-2.5, O/U 42.5) vs Colorado State - December 28

Miami Ohio (8-5) had an abysmal showing in their conference championship game, which landed them in the Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl. They are slight favorites over Colorado State, and we believe the Rams’ strength of schedule will win them this game. 

Military Bowl: NC State (-5.5, O/U 58.5) vs East Carolina - December 28

East Carolina (7-5) and NC State (6-6) have very young quarterbacks, which should lead to a lower-scoring game. They each make mistakes consistently, but we’re trusting the Pirates. 

Katin Houser has a little more experience for East Carolina and has been fantastic in out-of-conference games. 

Alamo Bowl: Colorado (-2.5, O/U 53.5) vs BYU - December 28

How many players will opt out for Colorado (9-3) against BYU (10-2)? The Buffaloes are expected to have Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter as two of the top picks in the draft. 

If these two don’t play, we don’t anticipate Colorado doing much against a physical BYU team. As the inactive list is determined, we’ll have to wait for spreads to be released. 

Independence Bowl: Army (-16.5, O/U 43.5) vs Marshall - December 28

Army (11-1) won the American Conference Championship. They lost to Navy but will look to respond against Marshall. 

Army’s roster should have more continuity than Marshall's, so we’re tentatively taking the Black Knights to cover as a Top 25 team.

Music City Bowl: #19 Missouri (-3.5, O/U 40.5) vs Iowa - December 30

Missouri (9-3) has one of the most appealing spreads in the latest college football bowl projections. The Tigers have one of the most explosive teams in the country, and they’ll face an Iowa team that doesn’t create big plays. 

The Hawkeyes defense is legitimate, but they will struggle against a fast SEC team. 

ReliaQuest Bowl: #11 Alabama (-10.5, O/U 43.5) vs Michigan - December 31 

Whether Jalen Milroe plays or doesn’t play in the ReliaQuest Bowl, we’re taking the Crimson Tide to cover the spread against Michigan. The Wolverines had their best showing of the year in The Game, upsetting Ohio State as 20-point underdogs. 

The Crimson Tide were left out of the College Football Playoff, and we believe they will take their anger out on the Wolverines. 

Sun Bowl: Louisville (-2.5, O/U 49.5) vs Washington - December 31

Louisville (8-4) opened as a 4.5-point favorite in the Sun Bowl, and the line has moved back to Washington by a point. We will follow the line movement and trust the Huskies in this contest. 

Look for junior wide receiver Jonah Coleman to have a strong game and build on his 1,011-yard, ten-touchdown season. 

Citrus Bowl: #15 South Carolina (-9.5, O/U 47.5) vs #20 Illinois - December 31

One of the best games from the bowl projections, outside of the College Football Playoff, is South Carolina (9-3) vs. Illinois (9-3) in the Citrus Bowl. Many believe the Gamecocks were snubbed in the College Football Playoff rankings, and we agree. 

The Gamecocks are one of the hottest teams in college football, and we expect them to show this on New Year’s Eve. 

Texas Bowl: LSU (-1.5, O/U 59.5) vs Baylor - December 31

Brian Kelly stated that LSU will be a legitimate contender next season. They have plenty of young players, and they will be given a month to prepare for their game against Baylor. 

The Tigers are 2.5-point favorites against Baylor (8-4). If Garrett Nussemier protects the ball, the Tigers will roll to a win. 

Gator Bowl: #14 Ole Miss (-14.5, O/U 52.5) vs Duke - January 2

Jaxson Dart’s status for the Gator Bowl is unknown. If he plays, Ole Miss will be a double-digit favorite and cruise to a win. However, considering Dart will be a top pick in the draft, it’s unlikely he will play for Ole Miss, which could give Duke a chance to win. 

First Responder Bowl: Texas State (-9.5, O/U 64.5) vs North Texas - January 3

If you like offense, you will want to hear our bowl projection for the First Responder Bowl. North Texas (6-6) and Texas State (7-5) have great quarterbacks combined for 60 passing touchdowns this season.

Duke’s Mayo Bowl: Minnesota (-6.5, O/U 42.5) vs Virginia Tech - January 3

Virginia Tech (6-6) has a slight edge over Minnesota (7-5). The Hokies have been explosive on the ground with running back Bhayshul Tuten. Tuten has 183 carries for 1,159 yards and 15 touchdowns this season. Their rushing attack should bring them a victory.

Bahamas Bowl: Liberty (-1.5, O/U 52.5) vs Buffalo - January 4

The Bahamas Bowl is the last of the traditional bowl games in 2024. Liberty (8-3) and Buffalo (8-4) have solid passing games. Yet, the Flames' strength of schedule will lift them to a victory in this contest. 

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Tanner Kern

Tanner Kern

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Tanner Kern has been working in the betting industry since 2020. He currently is a social media content creator at DraftKings and contributes to multiple sites in addition to WSN, including Forbes and VSiN. He is also the cohost of the podcast Ride the Line at WSN.
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