Ashton Jeanty looks to build on his tremendous season in the Mountain West title
Georgia and Texas will meet in a rematch from October
Penn State landed in the Big Ten Championship thanks to Michigan upsetting Ohio State
The projected College Football Playoff is almost finalized. This weekend, we have one more slate of games: conference championship games.
The committee has declared it doesn’t want to punish anyone for playing in a conference title, but it doesn’t seem like everyone is safe this weekend. We have targeted prop bets in three of the conference championships.
The action starts Friday night with Boise State and UNLV in the Mountain West Championship. We’re also targeting picks in the SEC and Big Ten title games.
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Ashton Jeanty has normalized three touchdown games, and we’re targeting this to start the slate of championship games. Boise State will try to move to 2-0 against UNLV this season and claim the Mountain West title.
They won’t make this happen unless they feed Ashton Jeanty. It doesn’t look like Jeanty will win the Heisman Trophy this season, as Travis Hunter has the award on lock.
However, Jeanty has been one of the most impactful players in college football, and it’s clear by his touchdown odds for Friday. Jeanty is -1000 to find the end zone, which is a bad pick.
Jeanty will score, but those odds are horrendous. We’re taking Jeanty to score three times on Friday for +185. We expect the running back to get tons of carries, leading to multiple touchdowns.
Jeanty has carried the ball 312 times for 2,288 yards and 28 touchdowns. He averaged 7.3 yards per carry this season and had a big game against UNLV earlier this season.
He only scored once, but he was in a position to put up points more than the box score indicates. He also had 128 yards in this contest, so it wasn’t like the Rebels neutralized him in the season’s first meeting.
Look for Jeanty to have a big game behind a stout offensive line and make a run at this plus-money scoring prop.
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While we expect Texas to respond after losing to Georgia earlier this season, they should have a tough time against Carson Beck. Beck is one of the best quarterbacks in the country, and he has shown it over the past three weeks.
In his past three games, he has thrown for 1,000 yards, 11 touchdowns, and no interceptions. He led a 17-point comeback against Georgia Tech and was fantastic.
Beck was 28-43 for 297 yards and threw five touchdown passes. The Bulldogs won in the eighth overtime period, and Beck’s big throwes set them up to be in a position to win after falling behind.
Beck’s passing yards prop is set at 244.5 on Saturday, and we’re taking the over in the SEC Championship. Texas played very well against Beck, consistently forcing turnovers.
However, Beck has been playing a different brand of football, as shown in the past three days. The quarterback has exceeded this line in four of his past five games.
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While $1.88 is a lot of juice to lay for a college football player prop, we’re taking the bait in the Big Ten Championship. Drew Allar leads Penn State into battle, and the Nittany Lions should realistically be watching this game from home.
The only reason the Nittany Lions snuck into the Big Ten Championship was that Michigan beat Ohio State in Columbus as a 21-point underdog. This was an embarrassing loss for the Buckeyes, as they match up better with Oregon than Penn State.
The Nittany Lions are solid, but they need help to throw the ball. They also love to run the football, which is what we’re anticipating on Saturday night.
Oregon works quickly, so Penn State’s best chance to win is keeping the Ducks off the field. Allar’s under 1.5 passing touchdowns prop is -188, which is risky.
Yet, it’s a fair enough price to play as a straight and should be an excellent parlay piece on Saturday. Allar has only gone over 1.5 passing touchdowns once in his past five games.
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