Best NCAAF Week 12 Picks & Bets: Will Texas Handle Business Against Arkansas

• The Longhorns enter Saturday’s contest against Arkansas at 8-1

• LSU needs a bounce-back win after a 42-13 loss to Alabama

• Billy Napier is on the hot seat as Florida is 4-5 in 2024

Texas has played an easy schedule this season, but they’re still one of the National Championship contenders heading into Week 12. The Longhorns travel to Fayetteville to take on Arkansas, and we are taking the road favorite minus the points. 

LSU and Florida are coming off blowout losses one week ago and are looking to get back on track. The Gators have not gotten good quarterback play in 2024, and this will be detrimental, even against a team like LSU, who hasn’t looked the part in big games. 

We’re placing our two wagers on FanDuel Sportsbook. As a special offer, FanDuel gives new users $150 in bonus bets if their first $5 bet wins.

Texas vs. Arkansas on FanDuel

• Date: Saturday, November 16th

• Time: 12:00 PM EST

• Moneyline: Texas (-535) | Arkansas (+400)

• Spread: Texas -13.5 (-112) | Arkansas +13.5 (-108)

• Total: Over 57.5 (-108) | Under 57.5 (-112)

Pick: Texas -13.5 (-112) at FanDuel

The Longhorns are second in the SEC and looking to find a way to make the championship game. If the season ends how we expect, they would be in the SEC Championship because Tennessee should lose to Georgia and the Longhorns will beat Texas A&M at the end of the year. 

Tennessee and Texas A&M lead the way at 5-1 in conference play, but Texas is better than both these opponents, especially if quarterback Quinn Ewers continues to deliver. 

Ewers is playing fantastic football in 2024. He has 1,722 yards through the air along with 19 touchdowns. In last week’s contest against Florida he threw for 333 yards to go with five touchdowns. 

Arkansas is coming off a much-needed bye week after a 32-point loss to Ole Miss in Week 9. The Razorbacks are 5-4 this season and have gotten plenty of rest ahead of this matchup. They will have to play perfect football to compete with the Longhorns. 

Ewers is surrounded by a ton of playmakers on the offensive side of the ball who can change the game on one play. The Longhorns utilize three running backs who all have different styles.

The contrasting rushing styles make things very difficult for defenses to scout. Wide receiver Isaiah Bond is also essential for this offense and has created big plays down the field all year. 

We don't think the Razorbacks' defense can withstand Texas's explosiveness. Look for this game to get out of hand, similar to the Florida game one week ago. 

The Longhorns' defense has also been outstanding, and they will keep Arkansas from scoring enough points to cover on Saturday. 

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LSU vs. Florida Odds on FanDuel

• Date: Saturday, November 16th

• Time: 3:30 PM EST

• Moneyline: LSU (-185) | Florida (+154)

• Spread: LSU -4.5 (-110) | Florida +4.5 (-110)

• Total: Over 55 (-110) | Under 55 (-110)

Pick: LSU -4.5  (-110) at FanDuel

LSU hits the road this week to take on a deflated Florida team with quarterback issues. The Tigers are 6-3, coming off a loss to Alabama one week ago. 

LSU is most likely eliminated from College Football Playoff contention, but they need this game to get their season back on track. Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier has posted a great season, throwing for 2,866 yards to go with 21 touchdowns. 

The Gators have utilized three different quarterbacks in 2024 after losing starter Graham Mertz early in the season. Aidan Warner has been leading Florida until DJ Lagway returns. In a disappointing performance, Warner had 132 yards through the air against Texas one week ago. 

LSU is a much better team and will be ready to bounce back after last week’s matchup. We expect the Tigers to establish the run game with Caden Durham, as he was silent against Alabama. 

The Tigers will return to their roots and run the football to open up the passing game for Nussmeier. Look for the LSU defense to make adjustments and pressure the quarterback, whether it’s Wagner or Lagway. 

Both Florida quarterbacks struggle against pressure, leading to turnovers, precisely what LSU desires to do schematically. The Tigers will not underperform two weeks in a row, as we think they start fast and keep their foot on the pedal.

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