Best NCAAF Picks & Bets: College Football Playoff Semifinal Picks

• Ohio State dominated Oregon in the CFP quarterfinal 

• Will Howard has thrown for 300+ yards in each CFP game

• Texas beat Arizona State in double overtime to advance 

The College Football Playoff semifinal has arrived. We have two heavily contested matchups this week, and the action begins on Thursday night. 

The Penn State Nittany Lions will battle the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the Orange Bowl. Penn State hasn’t been able to win big games, but Notre Dame has struggled offensively all season. 

On Friday, Ohio State will face Texas in the Cotton Bowl. While this is virtually a home game for Texas in Dallas, Buckeyes fans will travel well. 

Ohio State has been dominant, and they should continue this dominance on Friday. We have one bet in each game on FanDuel. As a special offer, FanDuel Sportsbook gives new users $200 in bonus bets once they bet $5 on the platform. Follow our custom FanDuel sign-up link and claim this offer, today!

#5 Notre Dame vs. #4 Penn State on FanDuel

• Date: Thursday, January 9

• Time: 7:30 PM EST

• Moneyline: Notre Dame (-132) | Penn State (+110)

• Spread: Notre Dame -1.5 (-120) | Penn State +1.5 (-102)

• Total: Over 45.5 (-105) | Under 45.5 (-115)

Pick: Penn State (+110) at FanDuel

The Penn State Nittany Lions were gifted the most manageable road to the semifinals in the College Football Playoff. Our College Football Playoff projections had Penn State going to the semifinals without a blink of an eye, and they delivered. 

They now have their toughest test of the College Football Playoff against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Marcus Freeman has done an excellent job leading the Irish back to prominence. 

Brian Kelly left Notre Dame before Freeman took over, which was the best thing for the program. Freeman has helped connect with the players, which is evident in the play on the field. 

Notre Dame had a tough early season loss to Northern Illinois. This was one of the biggest upsets of the college football season, but the Irish bounced back. 

They have been in playoff mode weekly, and this hunger has helped them reach this point. The talent between these two teams is very even. 

Penn State is a big, physical football team; the same characteristics can be said about Notre Dame. However, the Nittany Lions have a slight edge in this game because of their offense. 

Penn State can throw the ball down the field, and they have done so consistently in 2024. Drew Allar has improved significantly, throwing for 3,192 yards with 24 touchdowns. 

He is a better pocket passer than Riley Leonard, so we trust Penn State to play from behind if this becomes the game script. Notre Dame can’t play from behind because they struggle to throw the ball. 

If the Irish can create many turnovers, they have a great chance to win. Yet, we expect Penn State to take care of the football. 

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#6 Ohio State vs. #3 Texas on FanDuel

• Date: Friday, January 10

• Time: 7:30 PM EST

• Moneyline: Ohio State (-235) | Texas (+190)

• Spread: Ohio State -5.5 (-122) | Texas +5.5 (+100)

• Total: Over 53.5 (-110) | Under 53.5 (-110)

Pick: Ohio State -5.5 (-122) at FanDuel

It’s still incomprehensible that Ohio State lost to Michigan to end the regular season. Although the Wolverines beat Alabama in the Reliaquest Bowl, they were an average team all season. 

Michigan couldn’t consistently score, and they beat Ohio State as a 20.5-point underdog. However, based on their College Football Playoff results, this loss seemed like the best possible outcome for the Buckeyes.

Ohio State destroyed its competition in the first two games. They started the playoffs with a statement victory over Tennessee, but people didn’t get behind the Buckeyes after the first round. 

After a quarterfinal win over Oregon, Ohio State became the favorite to win the National Championship. The Ducks beat the Buckeyes earlier in the season, but Ohio State got their revenge. 

Will Howard has been playing excellent football. He has thrown for 3,490 yards with 32 touchdowns this season. 

In the playoffs, he has thrown for over 300 yards in each game, which have both been decided at halftime. 

Jeremiah Smith has been his favorite target, and he has been dominant. Smith has caught 70 passes for 1,224 yards with 14 touchdowns. Smith has 290 total yards in the playoffs with four touchdowns. 

There isn’t a player who has been able to stop him, and while Texas has elite defensive weapons, we believe Smith will win every battle. Texas has the roster to compete with Ohio State, but they’re incredibly inconsistent. 

The Longhorns are the definition of inconsistent. They haven’t played well in the playoffs, and while they’re playing in Dallas, it shouldn’t be enough to tame the Buckeyes.

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