Boise State allows 262.4 passing yards per game, which ranks 114th in the nation.
Duke allows just 166.6 passing yards per game, which is 13th best in the nation.
Penn State has 18 more pass rushing pressures than Ohio State this season.
Week 10 of the college football season is here, and we’re getting into the final weeks of the regular season before the College Football Playoff arrives.
In last week's parlay, I managed to hit two of the three legs, missing on Washington +6.5. They lost by 14 and couldn’t slow down Indiana’s backup quarterback. The parlay from Week 8 was victorious, though, so let’s hope I can get back to my winning ways.
Below is a three-leg parlay featuring San Diego State, Duke, and Penn State. The odds are +589 at FanDuel Sportsbook.
All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook, where you can receive $150 in bonus bets after creating an account and placing a winning $5 wager.
San Diego State has the tall task of traveling to take on the Boise State Broncos.
While the Broncos will win this game, 23.5 points is a lot to lay here.
San Diego State allows 216.6 passing yards per game (62nd) and 159.6 rushing yards (86th) per game.
Of course, the player they need to find a way to corral is Broncos running back Ashton Jeanty.
Admittedly, they haven’t been great against the run, allowing 10 rushing touchdowns this year. However, they are holding backs to just four yards per carry.
However, there are two negative points for the Broncos.
They’ve also allowed 10 rushing touchdowns this season and have won one of the worst pass defenses, allowing 262.4 passing yards (114th) per game and almost two passing touchdowns per outing.
San Diego State throws the ball on nearly 55% of their offensive snaps.
When they do run, it’s with running back Marquez Cooper, who’s been incredibly successful this season. He’s run for six touchdowns in his past four games. He hasn’t been the most efficient running back, but he has a nose for the end zone.
As for quarterback Danny O’Neil, he’s thrown for 246 yards or more in two of his last four games.
Jeanty will be typical Jeanty here, but I think there’s some upside here for the Aztecs to hold the ball on offense a bit more than expected with the Broncos faulty pass defense and how often they allow rushing touchdowns.
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Another big underdog here, I’m taking Duke +21.5 on the road against Miami.
The Hurricanes have ripped through the NCAAF ACC, coming off a 36-14 win over Florida State.
However, before this game, they hadn’t beaten a team by 22 points since South Florida on Sept. 21.
In the three games after that, they beat Virginia Tech by four, California by one, and Louisville by seven.
Duke has a pass defense that’s hard to contend with. They’re allowing less than one passing touchdown per game, and opposing quarterbacks manage just 166.6 passing yards per game (13th) against them.
This will pay massive dividends against a quarterback like Ward, who, up until last week, threw for 300 yards or more in every game.
Duke may not have the best offense this season, averaging just 110.6 rushing yards (117th) per game, but Miami looked a bit vulnerable defensively against Virginia Tech, Cal, and Louisville.
Remember, Duke is 6-2 this season with former Texas Longhorns quarterback Maalik Murphy under center. He threw for 295 yards and three touchdowns against MSU last week.
Miami will win this game as Duke covers.
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The health status of Penn State quarterback Drew Allar isn’t quite yet known, but I’ll operate this pick assuming he will play.
If he plays, he’ll play in a game with two of the top eight run defenses regarding yards per game allowed.
As for pass defense, Penn State allows 174.6 passing yards per game (18th), while Ohio State is at 163.1 (eighth).
All this is to say that both defenses are really good.
Where I think Penn State can cover is on the ground. They have two excellent running backs—Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton. Penn State averages 197.1 rushing yards per game.
Ohio State freshman phenom Jeremiah Smith will have an excellent challenge ahead of him, with Penn State cornerback A.J. Harris likely to shadow him.
Harris has allowed just 12 receptions for 108 yards and one touchdown this season. He also has one interception and three breakups.
Penn State’s pass rush has also generated more pressures (123) than Ohio State (105).
This is going to be an excellent football game that’ll likely come down to the last possession.
Look for Penn State to try to run the ball to keep Ohio State off the field, their pass rush to bear down on Ohio State quarterback Will Howard, and the home crowd to play a role in the Nittany Lions covering and potentially winning this game outright.
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