Best NCAAF Week 1 Parlay Picks: Penn State Narrowly Escapes Morgantown

• KJ Jefferson is UCF’s new starting quarterback. 

• Georgia and Clemson will play at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia.

• West Virginia quarterback Garrett Greene had 13 rushing touchdowns in 2023. 

Week 0 of the college football season is over, but we’ve already seen a massive upset with Georgia Tech taking down Florida State in Ireland. 

While I got that part of our parlay right last week, we fell three points shy of the “over” wager with SMU and Nevada, and Hawaii didn’t perform nearly as well as I thought they would. It's a tough loss, but I’m here to rebound with a bigger slate. 

Below is a three-leg parlay with odds of +596, featuring two marquee matchups with Georgia and Clemson and West Virginia and Penn State. 

All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook, where you can receive $200 in bonus bets and 3 Free Weeks of NFL Sunday Ticket after creating an account and wagering $5.

UCF -40.5 (-112) at FanDuel Sportsbook

We’re kicking this parlay off with a Thursday night game between the UCF Knights and the New Hampshire Wildcats. The Wildcats are making the journey. 

The headline here is UCF’s new quarterback, Arkansas Razorbacks transfer KJ Jefferson. 

Last season, Jefferson completed 190 of 297 passes (64%) for 2,107 yards, 19 touchdowns, eight interceptions, and added 700 rushing yards and two touchdowns. He was with Arkansas since 2019, and over that time, he racked up 434 carries for 2,477 yards and 21 touchdowns on the ground. Through the air, He completed 625 of 966 passes (64.7%) for 7,923 yards, 67 touchdowns, and 18 interceptions. 

So, UCF is getting an experienced quarterback who may not be the best passer in the world, but he doesn’t turn the ball over much and has immense rushing upside. 

As for New Hampshire, they’re rolling with Seth Morgan. Max Brosmer left town to become the quarterback for Minnesota. They also lost key offensive weapon Dylan Laube to the NFL Draft. Morgan is a transfer from Shepherd. Last season, he completed 239 of 364 passes for 2,970 yards and 24 touchdowns. However, Shepherd is a Division II school. The good news for him, though, is he’ll have Logan Tomlinson. He caught 42 passes for 622 yards and seven touchdowns with UNH in 2023. 

Still, there’s simply a massive talent gap here, especially with Jefferson quarterbacking the Knights. 

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Clemson vs. Georgia: Under 48.5 (-106) at FanDuel Sportsbook

This is going to be an intriguing matchup. It’s technically at a neutral site (Mercedez-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia) but still based in Georgia. It’ll be the No. 1 Bulldogs against the No. 14 Tigers. 

Let’s start with Georgia.

This team missed out on the College Football Playoff after losing in the SEC Championship. They lost a couple of defensive backs to the NFL Draft (Javon Bullard and Kamari Lassiter), but they also lost some key offensive pieces: tight end Brock Bowers, wide receiver Ladd McConkey, and offensive tackle Amarius Mims. 

Quarterback Carson Beck will have Dillon Bell, Dominic Lovett, and Arian Smith as his starting receivers, with Oscar Delp at tight end. The biggest addition for them was running back Trevor Etienne. 

The defense has another year of experience, and all but three starters are juniors or older, so there’s plenty of experience still, including Mykel Williams, Nazir Stackhouse, and more. 

Clemson lost cornerback Nate Wiggins, defensive tackle Ruke Orhorhoro, linebacker Jeremiah Trotter Jr., edge rusher Xavier Thomas, defensive tackle Tyler Davis, and running back Will Shipley. 

Cade Klunik is under center again, with Tyler Brown, Antonio Williams, and Adam Randall as his starter receivers. 

For Georgia, it’ll be intriguing to see how they replace two key weapons, but the addition of Etienne leads me to believe they’ll have a more balanced approach. Clemson will also look to run the ball with Phil Mafah to take some pressure off Klubnik against this Georgia defense. The Georgia defense of 2023 wasn’t like the one in 2022, but they all have another year of experience, so I expect some improvement. 

This is going to be a grittier type of game. I think Georgia wins, but I’m not ready to lay almost two touchdowns in points. Thus, I’ll take the under as Georgia finds an offensive identity, and their defense holds down Clemson’s offense. 

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West Virginia +8.5 (-112) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The Mountaineers are hosting Penn State, which is what will be a heated matchup. West Virginia is unranked, while Penn State is No. 8 in the country. 

West Virginia lost center Zach Frazier to the NFL Draft, but the rest of the offensive line is intact, and it was one of the best in college football in 2023. 

Quarterback Garrett Greene threw for 2,399 yards, 16 touchdowns, and four interceptions while rushing for 773 yards and 13 touchdowns. 

The Mountaineers defense allowed 393.2 yards of offense per game (71st) compared to Penn State’s 256.6 (second). 

The Mountaineers have another year of experience, while the Nittany Lions lost Chop Robinson, Adisa Isaac, Daequan Hardy, and Kalen King. 

As for the Penn State offense, I’m looking forward to how Drew Allar improves. He doesn’t turn the ball over, but it also took quite some time for him to start throwing the ball deep. He also has a new weapon, with Julian Fleming transferring from Ohio State. 

I expect West Virginia’s offensive line to give Greene some time to work against a Penn State defense that’ll still be excellent but no longer has Robinson’s pass-rushing threat. 

Look for Penn State to escape with a win but by less than 8.5 points. 

This is going to be a raucous Morgantown crowd, especially since The Pat McAfee Show will be held there before the game.

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