Best NCAAF Playoff Opening Round Parlay Picks: Penn State’s Run Starts Now

• On passes 20-plus yards downfield, Penn State quarterback Drew Allar is averaging 17.3 yards per attempt

• Longhorns wide receiver Isaiah Bond and left tackle Kelvin Banks are dealing with ankle injuries

• Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava is completing 42.6% of his passes when pressured this season

Alright, here we go: The College Football Playoff begins on Friday, Dec. 20, and Indiana, the No. 10 seed, will travel on the road to take on No. 7 Notre Dame. 

At the time of this writing, two of the three games from last week's parlay have yet to play, but just one game in, the parlay is already a bust. The game that lost was Army -6.5. 

I think it’s safe to say many were surprised at how badly they got beaten in that game. They lost 31-13 to Navy.

It remains to be seen if my calls for the Cal moneyline and Memphis -2.5 will stand, but either way, we’re on to the College Football Playoff. 

Below, I have picks relating to Penn State, Texas, and Ohio State.

This is a three-leg parlay with odds of +605, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook, where you can receive $150 in bonus bets after creating an account and placing a winning $5 wager.

Penn State -8.5 (-112) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Live from Happy Valley, the Penn State Nittany Lions will host the ACC's surprise team, the SMU Mustangs. 

SMU did well in its first season in the ACC, winning 11 games, but the team hasn’t faced an opponent like Penn State.

Penn State has one of the best defenses in the country, holding teams to 103.8 rushing yards (10th), 178.5 passing yards (12th), and just 16.4 points (seventh) per game. 

Thanks to quarterback Kevin Jennings, the Mustangs have been a top-20 passing offense, coming in at No. 18 with 270.4 yards per game. 

The rushing attack also averages 160 a game, but that comes in tied for 69th in the country. 

The problem for the Mustangs here is that they haven’t faced a team like Penn State, and their pass defense is just inside the top 100 in the country, allowing over 241 yards per game. 

Penn State quarterback Drew Allar was likely a first-round pick in the making for the 2025 NFL Draft, but he’s opted to come back to school. 

Under new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, he’s played quite well this year, averaging 8.9 yards per attempt. Of his attempts, 11.4% have come on passes 20-plus yards downfield. On those passes, he’s averaging 17.3 yards per attempt and has eight touchdown passes. 

Look for Penn State’s offense to get the better of SMU's trying to slow down the pass rush from Abdul Carter. 

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Clemson +11.5 (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook

While the strength of Clemson’s offense is the passing attack and the Longhorns strength is pass defense, I’m leaning slightly toward the Tigers here as I think they’ll lose, but can stay within this number. 

Part of that is that the Longhorns have a couple of notable injuries heading into this game. Wide receiver Isaiah Bond and left tackle Kelvin Banks are dealing with ankle injuries. 

It’s unclear if they’ll play or not or how severe they are, but these are two key pieces to be aware of.

Tigers quarterback Cade Klubnik has 3,306 passing yards, 33 touchdowns, and just five interceptions this season.

Only four quarterbacks in college football threw for 3,000-plus yards and 30-plus touchdowns this season. 

I haven’t been too impressed with Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers over the past four games or so. He’s thrown for less than 200 yards twice in that span and has three interceptions. 

According to Pro Football Focus, he has six turnover-worthy players as well. 

Clemson doesn’t stand out defensively in too many areas, but they are plus-1.3 in the turnover margin per game (third) and have 15 interceptions (tied for fifth-most). 

I think it'll be close in regards to them covering, but given how Ewers has been playing recently and some key injuries, I’ll take Texas to win by 8-10 as opposed to 12 or more. 

This is a case of a borderline top-10 offense going up against one of the better defenses in the country, and I think Clemson escapes with a cover. 

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Ohio State -7.5 (-105) at FanDuel Sportsbook

In the No. 8 versus No. 9 matchup, we have another strength-versus-strength matchup. Tennessee brings the No. 10 rushing attack in the nation (226.2 yards per game) to Columbus to take on the Ohio State Buckeyes, who allow just 97.3 rushing yards per game (sixth). 

Tennessee’s defensive front will have an easier time than usual as Ohio State’s offensive line is beaten up, but I believe they’ll have a hard time running the ball. 

The Buckeyes did allow 172 rushing yards to Michigan, but that’s a longtime conference rival. 

That said, Volunteers running back Dylan Sampson will be the No. 1 option that the Buckeyes plan for. 

Here, Tennessee is traveling north, playing in cold conditions against a team with two legitimate pass rushers in Jack Sawyer and J.T. Tuimoloau. 

The Buckeyes have generated 189 pressures this season, and they’ll look to crack a Tennessee offensive line that has allowed only 93 pressures this season. 

Not only are the Buckeyes a top defense against the run, but they also allow the second-least passing yards per game at 144.3. 

Volunteers quarterback Nico Iamaleava has been solid as a passer this season, completing 65.5% of his passes on 304 attempts. However, when pressured, which has happened on 26.7% of his dropbacks, he’s completed just 42.6% of his passes for 264 yards, 5.6 yards per attempt, one touchdown, and two interceptions. 

From there, the Volunteers defense has two NFL-caliber running backs to concern themselves with and a trio of receivers who have created problems for teams all season. 

The matchup I’m watching is Emeka Egbuka out of the slot against Tennessee slot corner and freshman Boo Carter. 

He allowed a touchdown in Week 14 to Vanderbilt. 

I’m expecting a big bounce back here from Ohio State after losing at home to Michigan in embarrassing fashion.

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