Best NCAAF Playoff Semifinal Parlay Picks: The Big Ten Shines

• Penn State’s Drew Allar is the only quarterback in college football with a completion percentage of 50% or higher and double-digit touchdowns on passes 20-plus yards downfield. 

• Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers has thrown at least one interception in four straight games. 

• Of all quarterbacks with at least 20 or more attempts on passes 20-plus yards downfield, Ohio State’s Will Howard has the best completion percentage at 59.5%. 

And then there were four. That’s right, it’s time for the College Football Semifinal.

Ohio State vs. Texas. 

Penn State vs. Notre Dame. 

The winners of these games advance to the College Football National Championship game. 

With last week's parlay, I managed to hit on Penn State -10.5 and Notre Dame +1.5 but fell short of Texas -13.5. Arizona State was a pleasant surprise, and Texas won by eight. 

Now, we have just three total college football games left. 

Below is a two-leg parlay for the semifinals, including Penn State and Ohio State. The odds are +258, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Head over to FanDuel to place your bets and get $200 in bonus bets with a $5 wager.

Penn State +2.5 (-112) at FanDuel Sportsbook

I’m tempted to take the Penn State moneyline, but I’ll take the points just in case. 

That said, I do believe Penn State will pull off this win. 

This team is rolling right now, firing in both the passing and running game. Now, they’ll take on a Notre Dame program that allows 127.9 rushing yards (32nd) and 167.4 passing yards (fourth) per game. 

While I respect Notre Dame’s pass defense specifically, I think they’ll have issues against Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton. 

They’ve combined for 359 carries, 2,041 yards, and 17 touchdowns. They’ve also only fumbled once each, so they have excellent ball security. 

Also, quarterback Drew Allar isn’t exactly a running quarterback, but he can scramble. He has 78 carries for 394 yards and six scores. 

So, while the Fighting Irish will attempt to slow them down, they’ll also try to zero in on tight end Tyler Warren. 

Notre Dame primarily uses Adon Shuler against tight ends. He’s had a strong season, allowing just 21 catches on 31 targets for 223 yards, no touchdowns, and has three picks. 

However, he hasn’t faced a tight end like Warren yet. Georgia’s Oscar Delp was a close comparison, but he had a backup quarterback throwing him the ball, and, let’s be honest, there’s only one Warren. 

I also strongly believe in Allar—I have all season. He may not always have the best completion percentage (though it’s 67.4% on the season). 

But when you watch him play, he hangs in the pocket, has great arm talent, and throws the deep ball well. 

He also handles the blitz well. 

Against it this season, he’s completing 69.5% of his passes for 1,378 yards, 14 touchdowns, and two picks. 

Of his attempts, 11.9% are 20-plus yards downfield, and he’s completed 22 of 44 passes for 701 yards, 11 touchdowns, and two picks. 

To have a 50% completion rate on 20-plus yard passes is phenomenal. He’s the only quarterback with a completion percentage of 50% or higher on these passes with double-digit touchdown passes. 

Now, let’s look at Notre Dame’s offense against Penn State’s defense. 

Penn State allows 15.8 points (fifth), 101 rushing yards (eighth), and 187.9 passing yards (21st) per game. 

Notre Dame has one of the best rushing offenses, averaging 217.6 yards per game (12th), and quarterback Riley Leonard, who has a dozen touchdowns on his own, is a big part of that. 

That’s the one element I’m intrigued by. I think Penn State can limit the firepower from Jadarian Price and Jeremiyah Love, but can they slow down Leonard? 

Looking at the trenches, Leonard may be running for his life more than he’s used to. The matchup of Penn State edge rusher Abdul Carter against Notre Dame left tackle Anthonie Knapp is noticeable. 

Knapp has allowed four sacks and 31 pressures and now faces the top edge rusher in the 2025 NFL Draft. 

Look for a Penn State win. They have the offense to get it done and can slow down the Notre Dame rushing attack enough. 

Penn State wins 24-20. 

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Ohio State -5.5 (-112) at FanDuel Sportsbook

After picking Penn State to win and Ohio State to cover a -5.5 point spread, you can see my prediction for the national championship is a Big Ten showdown between Ohio State and Texas. 

Ohio State seems like an impossible team to stop right now. 

They do have an intriguing matchup against Texas cornerback Jahdae Barron. He’s used all over the field and has excellent ball skills. 

Texas also has safeties like Andrew Mukuba and Michael Taaffe, who have had excellent seasons. 

Still, I trust Will Howard right now. He, like Allar, is fantastic on the deep ball.

Of his attempts, 11.4% are 20-plus yards downfield, and he’s completing 59.5% of them for 854 yards, eight touchdowns, and two picks. 

Howard has the best completion percentage among quarterbacks, with at least 20 attempts on passes of 20-plus yards downfield. 

Overall, Texas has an excellent defense. They’re inside the top three in passing yards allowed and in the top 12 in rushing yards allowed. 

Because of that defensive prowess, I expect Ohio State to be a bit more selective in the passing game, but they have far too many weapons to be shut down like other teams. 

But what worries me about Texas is their offense against the Ohio State defense. 

Ohio State allows 12.1 points (first), 152.4 passing yards (first), and 92.6 rushing yards (fourth) per game. 

They’re an even better defense than Texas, while Texas' offense is noticeably worse than Ohio State's. 

Texas’s offense averages 165.6 rushing yards (55th) and 278.4 passing yards (13th) per game. 

Sure, Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers racks up the statistics, but he also has an interception in four straight games. He has 11 interceptions on the year and 19 turnover-worthy plays.

Against Ohio State, you cannot make those mistakes. They score far too often when they have the ball. 

I think Ohio State wins this one by double digits. Ewers will have some turnovers. 

I am moderately concerned with the Buckeyes offensive line against the Texas interior defensive line led by Alfred Collins and Vernon Broughton, but I think they’ll manage it well enough to get the win. 

Ohio State wins this one, 31-21. 

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