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Best NCAAF Playoff Round Two Parlay Picks: Penn State’s Run Continues

Contributors
Published December 25, 2024
7 min read
  • Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty is just 132 rushing yards away from breaking the single-season rushing record

  • Texas has the second-best pass defense in the country, holding teams to just 156.9 per game

  • Notre Dame running backs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price and quarterback Riley Leonard combined for 368 carries, 2,537 rushing yards, and 38 rushing touchdowns this season

The first round of the College Football Playoff has come and gone, and not only did all of the home teams win, but they all covered the spread.

The parlay I created last week fell short as I picked Clemson +11.5, and they lost by 14.

Now, I'm focusing on Penn State, Texas, and Notre Dame.

This is a three-leg parlay with odds of +582, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook, where you can receive $250 in bonus bets after creating an account and placing a winning $5 wager.

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Best NCAAF Parlay Picks

Penn State -10.5 (-115) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Boise State is one of those teams that doesn’t take long to figure out what they want to do on offense.

They want to get the ball to Ashton Jeanty and let him go to work. 

This season, he has 344 carries for 2,497 yards and 29 touchdowns. He’s 132 yards away from breaking the single-season rushing record held by Barry Sanders. 

In his way is the Penn State defense, giving up just 100.5 rushing yards per game and holding SMU to 58 in the first round of the College Football Playoff. 

Additionally, Penn State is holding teams to 15.9 points (fifth) and 179.6 passing yards (11th) per game. 

The quarterback for Boise State is Maddux Madsen. He has just three interceptions on the year, but don’t let that fool you—he has 16 turnover-worthy plays and doesn’t perform well when pressured. 

Under pressure, he’s completing 44.3% of his passes for 476 yards, six yards per attempt, two touchdowns, and two interceptions. 

All of his interceptions have come while not being blitzed, either. 

Penn State’s offense wants to run, too, with Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton, but Boise State does put up a fight on defense, holding teams to 112.5 rushing yards per game (14th). However, they’re allowing 149.7 per game over their last three and gave up 217 in their last game against UNLV. 

Where their defense struggles massively is against the pass. They allow 256.6 passing yards per game, which is 113th in the nation. 

When asked to throw, Nittany Lions quarterback Drew Allar does it at a fairly high level. 

He has fewer turnover-worthy plays than interceptions and is fantastic at throwing the deep ball. 

On passes of 20-plus yards downfield, he’s completing 51.4% of his passes for 639 yards, eight touchdowns, and two interceptions, and is averaging 17.3 yards per attempt. 

Look for Penn State’s defense to get to Madsen and make Jeanty look a bit more human while the Penn State passing attack comes alive. 

Penn State will win by more than two touchdowns. 

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Texas -13.5 (-115) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Texas beat Clemson in the College Football Playoff 38-24 first round. 

This week, they’re taking on the Arizona State Sun Devils, who are coming off a bye week. 

The Sun Devils are more of a rushing-focused team, averaging 198.8 yards per game (17th). Their passing attack ranks 63rd, averaging 224.4 yards per game. 

Texas has one of the best defenses in the country, holding teams to a mere 156.9 passing yards (second) and 104.5 rushing yards (ninth) per game. 

Sun Devils quarterback Sam Leavitt has had a quality season, throwing for 2,660 yards, 24 touchdowns, and five picks. He completed 63% of his passes and averaged 25 attempts per game. 

They also have a fantastic running back in Cam Skattebo, who ran for 1,569 yards and 19 touchdowns this season. 

The Sun Devils have played well this season, but I think they’re in for a daunting matchup here. 

The Sun Devils offensive line has been solid this season playing in the Big 12, but now they have to face a Texas defensive line that consists of players like Barryn Sorrell, Vernon Broughton, Alfred Collins, and Trey Moore.

The Texas coverage unit faces a pretty pedestrian group of wide receivers without Jordyn Tyson in the lineup. 

He had 113 targets and 75 catches before his injury. The next best player, receptions-wise, is Skattebo, with 37 catches.

I also question how well Arizona State will do on defense against Texas. They allow 215.4 passing yards (56th) and 117.8 rushing yards (22nd) per game, but I don’t think the defensive line can match up in the trenches with Texas.

Three of the Sun Devils defensive linemen are six-foot-two or shorter, and they’ll have to contend with Texas offensive linemen who are all six-foot-three or taller. Left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. is going to be a top pick in the NFL Draft. 

The Sun Devils have had a great season, but they’re going to get dominated physically here and make it tough to stop the Texas offense. 

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Notre Dame +1.5 (-105) at FanDuel Sportsbook

I’m actually somewhat surprised Notre Dame are underdogs in this game. 

The Georgia Bulldogs are the No. 2 seed, but quarterback Carson Beck is now out for the season after undergoing surgery following an injury he suffered in the SEC title game. 

In his place will be Gunner Stockton, who, in relief of Beck, completed 12 of 16 passes for 71 yards and a pick. 

Notre Dame allows just 162.3 passing yards (third) per game. The Bulldogs will certainly be more toward the run here. In relief of Beck, Stockton showed he can run a little bit, and they also have Trevor Etienne, but Georgia doesn’t have that same elite-level defense as they’ve had in the past. 

They allow 224.6 passing yards (70th) and 129.3 rushing yards (32nd) per game. 

Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard has excellent rushing upside and isn’t a quarterback who makes many mistakes to turn the ball over. 

Notre Dame boasts the No. 10 rushing attack in the country, with 222.4 rushing yards per game. Running backs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price each had 100-plus carries this season, as did Leonard. The trio combined for 368 carries, 2,537 rushing yards, and 38 rushing touchdowns. 

If Georgia runs the ball well, I can see them winning and covering, but if Notre Dame can key in on that, I don’t feel confident in Stockton bailing Georgia out. He averaged just 4.4 yards per attempt in the SEC title game against a pass defense that’s only slightly better than Notre Dame regarding passing yards allowed. 

I think Notre Dame is in for a win here against a disheartened Georgia squad, but I’ll take the points to be that much more safe. 

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Richard Janvrin

Richard Janvrin

Sports Betting Analyst

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After graduating from the University of New Hampshire with a BA in Journalism, Richard Janvrin has been covering iGaming and sports betting since December 2018. Richard has covered betting at Bleacher Report, Gambling.com, The Game Day, Forbes, and more.
Email: [email protected]
Nationality: American
Education: Bachelor of English/ Journalism
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